Next, the Milwaukee Brewers who are likely the main challengers to the Cubs in the NL Central.
The offense consists of mostly the same cast of characters with only Geoff Jenkins leaving replaced by Tony Gwynn, Jr. which would seem to be a weakening of the offense but so many of the players are young that there's hope that that difference will be more than offset by progression from the kids.
Also, whilst the offense is mostly the same, the defensive alignment has been shifted radically.
Reigning Rookie of the Year Ryan Braun leaves third base (thankfully) and hopefully will prove less of an adventure patrolling leftfield. The young Gwynn takes over centerfield and Corey Hart remains in right.
With Gwynn on the DL to start the season the Gabe duo Gross and Kapler split time in center initially but with Gwynn returning Gross has already been traded away to the Rays.
Offensively Braun more than earned his Rookie of the Year award (though a strong argument can be made that he should have lost it factoring his "defense") and although some regression can be expected he should still be a plus offensive player even at left.
Hart should be strong on the other side as well whilst Gwynn is still a long, long way short of his Hall of Fame father's batting prowess.
Prince Fielder still anchors the lineup from first base and Bill Hall comes in from centerfield to fill in at third base. Hall is a solid bat and Fielder is a threat to be an MVP candidate and home run champion. Not too shabby.
The middle infield consists of Rickie Weeks at second and J.J. Hardy at short. With Weeks fully healthy this year he should break through and become a decent offensive player but Hardy seems more or less a league average shortstop.
Jason Kendall somehow continues to find contracts and will be the primary catcher backed up by Mike Rivera.
Kapler and Rivera are joined on the bench by the experienced Craig Counsell and, well, that's it. The Brewers have had Hernan Iribarren and Joe Dillon each make brief appearances but both are back in the minors whilst Milwaukee is carrying 14(!) pitchers.
The weakness is the defense. Bill Hall is an average defensive third baseman which is pretty good for a guy in his fourth regular starting position. Unfortunately he's probably the best defender on the team with Gwynn in center maybe a push. That won't stop them scoring runs, but it does put a lot more pressure on the pitching staff.
That pitching staff, all 14 of them, is working around various injuries. For once, their ace Ben Sheets seems fully healthy giving them a very strong #1 guy.
After that there's Chris Capuano on the DL with a ligament sprain in his left elbow and the season started with Yovani Gallardo unavailable too.
Gallarado is back up now providing a second decent starting arm ahead of a group of average (or worse) guys. Jeff Suppan has a lot of experience but isn't anything more than a borderline #3 guy and the rest of the rotation will eventually work out to be some combination of Matt Bush and the youngsters Manny Parra and Carlos Villanueva.
Presumably soon one of those three will be bumped either to the 'pen or the minors to allow an extra bench player and another will follow once Capuano returns.
The bullpen has Eric Gagne at closer but it certainly looks like he's more the pitcher Boston had last year than the record-setting closer of his Dodger days.
He's joined by Derek Turnbow, Brian Shouse, Salomon Torres, David Riske, Guillermo Mota, Seth McClung and rookie Mitch Stetter.
Plenty of name recognition (as far a it goes for middle relievers) but on the whole a fairly middling crew. Still, the depth of the relief corps should mean they can pull starters a little earlier if they struggle. On the other hand, it's hard to pinch-hit for the pitcher when there's nobody on the bench but other pitchers.
Overall, the pitching could be pretty reasonable with Capuano back but the tail of the rotation and the general mediocrity in the bullpen are a concern. So is Sheets, if for no other reason than it's always best to assume he will get injured.
Rough estimates for offense: 740 runs scored +/-37 and defense: 790 runs allowed +/-40.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 84-78
Medium: 76-86
Low: 68-94
That doesn't really look like a playoff team but with a lot of weak teams in their division they could still contend. Especially when Mike Cameron's suspension ends after the weekend which could help both their offense and defense with his glove in centerfield over the not-yet-ready Gwynn.
The numbers above didn't factor Cameron (because I forgot until just now) but he could maybe boost the Brewers by another 2-3 wins giving them a shot.
Next up: Pittsburgh Pirates
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Houston Astros
Houston looks a lot different these days with Craig Biggio following Jeff Bagwell into retirement and (presumably) eventual enshrinement at the Hall of Fame.
Even so, the outfield corners with Carlos Lee in left and Hunter Pence in right, along with first baseman Lance Berkman provide a solid power core for the offense.
In centerfield Michael Bourn figures to be a glove-first guy but his speed could add an offensive weapon if he can get on base enough.
Miguel Tejada is declining somewhat at this stage of his career and seeing a lot more groundballs, but declining for him is still a plus bat for shortstop.
Next to him at second base is Kazuo Matsui who certainly hasn't been as sharp these past few years since coming to MLB either with his (previously slick) fielding or with his (previously impressive) bat.
Ty Wigginton is currently on the DL so Geoff Blum fills in as the primary starter at third for now. Blum is a useful bench guy for his ability to play (just about) the field at a lot of positions but his bat is a liability in the starting lineup. Once Wigginton returns they'll put up with his lead glove to bring the offensive production back to around average third base levels.
J.R Towles has taken over as the starting catcher pushing Brad Ausmus to the bench as his backup. Towles is still developing but should provide an acceptable bat whereas Ausmus has never really been able to hit but has gotten by by being an excellent defensive catcher. Those days are behind him now though and he's of dubious value even as a backup.
The rest of the bench consists of Darin Erstad and Jose Cruz as outfield reserves and Mark Loretta with Tomas Perez to cover the infield. Which is to say, nothing worth having anymore.
If Tejada stays the course then he could combine with Berkman, Pence and Lee to keep this offense from being terrible but there are too many black holes to expect it to be good.
The pitching immediately looks good with Roy Oswalt at the top. He's a guy that sometimes gets overlooked as one of the top pitchers in the game but he can match up with anybody out there.
Unfortunately for Houston it goes rapidly downhill from there.
Brandon Backe is the number two starter in designation but not ability. Backe's a good hitter for a pitcher and a good pitcher for a hitter. He's just not really good enough at either job to be starting in the league.
Shawn Chacon is back to being a starter despite a large body of evidence showing that he isn't any good at it.
Wandy Rodriguez as the fourth starter is the closest the Astros have to a second decent starter though he's currently out on the DL. The fifth spot is taken by Chris Sampson, a 30-year old AAAA player.
Unless they find a way to get Oswalt to pitch every night they're in a lot of trouble.
The bullpen seems a little better starting with closer Jose Valverde. Unless his slow start is a continuation of the odd trend of only pitching well in odd numbered years he should be reasonably solid.
Bridging between him and the starters are Doug Brocail, Geoff Geary, Oscar Villareal, Dave Borkowski, Brian Moehler, Tim Byrdak and Wesley Wright.
An experienced middle-of-the-road group on the whole except the youngster Wright who shows a fair bit of promise but has yet to really show anything beyond AA and needs another season of, well, seasoning.
Byrdak will likely be the one to head back to AAA when Rodriguez is re-activated returning to a 6-man bullpen.
The bullpen certainly isn't strong enough or deep enough to make up for the dreadful rotation so the Astros figure to see a lot of football scores this year.
Rough estimates for offense: 710 runs scored +/-36 and defense: 820 runs allowed +/-41.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 77-85
Medium: 69-93
Low: 62-100
Chacon and Rodriguez (before getting hurt) have gotten off to hot starts but there's really no reason to expect it to continue. This is going to be a long season.
Next: Milwaukee Brewers
Even so, the outfield corners with Carlos Lee in left and Hunter Pence in right, along with first baseman Lance Berkman provide a solid power core for the offense.
In centerfield Michael Bourn figures to be a glove-first guy but his speed could add an offensive weapon if he can get on base enough.
Miguel Tejada is declining somewhat at this stage of his career and seeing a lot more groundballs, but declining for him is still a plus bat for shortstop.
Next to him at second base is Kazuo Matsui who certainly hasn't been as sharp these past few years since coming to MLB either with his (previously slick) fielding or with his (previously impressive) bat.
Ty Wigginton is currently on the DL so Geoff Blum fills in as the primary starter at third for now. Blum is a useful bench guy for his ability to play (just about) the field at a lot of positions but his bat is a liability in the starting lineup. Once Wigginton returns they'll put up with his lead glove to bring the offensive production back to around average third base levels.
J.R Towles has taken over as the starting catcher pushing Brad Ausmus to the bench as his backup. Towles is still developing but should provide an acceptable bat whereas Ausmus has never really been able to hit but has gotten by by being an excellent defensive catcher. Those days are behind him now though and he's of dubious value even as a backup.
The rest of the bench consists of Darin Erstad and Jose Cruz as outfield reserves and Mark Loretta with Tomas Perez to cover the infield. Which is to say, nothing worth having anymore.
If Tejada stays the course then he could combine with Berkman, Pence and Lee to keep this offense from being terrible but there are too many black holes to expect it to be good.
The pitching immediately looks good with Roy Oswalt at the top. He's a guy that sometimes gets overlooked as one of the top pitchers in the game but he can match up with anybody out there.
Unfortunately for Houston it goes rapidly downhill from there.
Brandon Backe is the number two starter in designation but not ability. Backe's a good hitter for a pitcher and a good pitcher for a hitter. He's just not really good enough at either job to be starting in the league.
Shawn Chacon is back to being a starter despite a large body of evidence showing that he isn't any good at it.
Wandy Rodriguez as the fourth starter is the closest the Astros have to a second decent starter though he's currently out on the DL. The fifth spot is taken by Chris Sampson, a 30-year old AAAA player.
Unless they find a way to get Oswalt to pitch every night they're in a lot of trouble.
The bullpen seems a little better starting with closer Jose Valverde. Unless his slow start is a continuation of the odd trend of only pitching well in odd numbered years he should be reasonably solid.
Bridging between him and the starters are Doug Brocail, Geoff Geary, Oscar Villareal, Dave Borkowski, Brian Moehler, Tim Byrdak and Wesley Wright.
An experienced middle-of-the-road group on the whole except the youngster Wright who shows a fair bit of promise but has yet to really show anything beyond AA and needs another season of, well, seasoning.
Byrdak will likely be the one to head back to AAA when Rodriguez is re-activated returning to a 6-man bullpen.
The bullpen certainly isn't strong enough or deep enough to make up for the dreadful rotation so the Astros figure to see a lot of football scores this year.
Rough estimates for offense: 710 runs scored +/-36 and defense: 820 runs allowed +/-41.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 77-85
Medium: 69-93
Low: 62-100
Chacon and Rodriguez (before getting hurt) have gotten off to hot starts but there's really no reason to expect it to continue. This is going to be a long season.
Next: Milwaukee Brewers
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Cincinatti Reds
Years of sucking and the addition of Dusty Baker as manager have somehow not dampened the Reds enthusiasm and they've been seen as dark horse contenders by more than a few. Let's see what they've got.
Adam Dunn in left and Ken Griffey, Jr. in right both return to give decent offense from both spots. Griffey's age and injury history have taken a serious toll on his defensive ability (over-rated to begin with) but he is still an great hitter. Dunn's power and patience are more than enough to make up for his huge strikeout totals.
With Josh Hamilton moving on centerfield was up for grabs and late free agent signing Corey Patterson has settled into that role for the time being. Patterson's shown quite an improvement with his selectivity at the plate but it's hard to believe he'll be anything more than average.
It's more than likely at some point Jay Bruce will find his way up from the minors to displace Patterson.
The infield corners supply more offense with Edwin Encarnacion at third and 24-year old Joey Votto at first. This is Votto's first season but he should put of first baseman numbers straight away and next year he should be a real force. Encarnacion has a very good bat whilst not giving up anything with the glove.
With Alex Gonzalez sidelined with a knee injury, Jeff Keppinger has moved over to be the starting shortstop alongside Brandon Phillips at second. Both hit pretty well for middle infielders but especially with Keppinger out of his usual position they're fairly weak defensively.
Paul Bako behind the plate is a no-hit journeyman with his tenth team. His backup Javier Valentin is a much better hitter but Bako's experience and actual catching ability give him the slight edge for now.
The rest of the bench for now consists of Ryan Freel and Nate Hopper in the outfield (though Freel can cover the infield in a pinch too) with Juan Castro as the infield utility to guy and Scott Hatteberg backing up Votto at first.
Overall, the offense is pretty good and Bruce gives the possibility of it getting a little better still but the bench is a big dropoff. Not a lot of scope to deal with injuries if/when they come. (Yes, I'm looking at you Kenneth!)
The pitching has been a weakness generally in recent years but the Reds hope that changes this year starting with Aaron Harang back at the top of the rotation.
Harang is a good solid pitcher but sooner or later the park is going to catch up to him, you would think. Then again, he's been here a while now and somehow keeps on getting it done. He'll give up his share of homers but overall he should be a decent start to the rotation.
Bronson Arroyo in the second spot will probably see an uptick in his home run rate, though not as severely as his early-season stats are showing. Arroyo is probably no more than a #3 starter at best so a lot rests on their rookie Johnny Cueto.
Cueto is just 22 years old and has flown through the Reds' system. They hope he can bust out straight away but a more realistic expectation is for him to survive this year and grow into a big league role next year.
He's thrown less than 350 professional innings in the past 3 years since signing out of the Dominican Republic and ability aside, the Reds surely want to ease his innings up. (Then again, with Dusty managing him maybe he'll throw 150 pitches a night.)
Josh Fogg in the fourth spot has never been a good pitcher unless you count one decent AA season 8 years ago and isn't likely to suddenly become one now. That he has a job is a testament to how much Major League GMs like a known "name".
Another young kid, Edinson Volquez, fills out the last spot having come over from the Rangers in the Josh Hamilton deal. He's a decent talent and he should be serviceable enough but he's not yet polished enough to make up for the weaknesses elsewhere in the rotation.
With a weak staff a 7-man bullpen is a necessity for the Reds statring with closer Francisco Cordero.
David Weathers and Jared Burton behind him are serviceable enough but Jeremy Affeldt, Todd Coffey, Mike Lincoln and Kent Mercker(!) aren't going to inspire a lot of confidence.
Mercker is a perfect example of what being left-handed can do for a pitching career finding work at 40 after missing an entire year (for the sceond time) following Tommy John surgery.
The pitching is going to be something of a black hole again this year and the offense is going to need to work hard to make up for it.
Rough estimates for offense: 780 runs scored +/-39 and defense: 850 runs allowed +/-43.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 82-80
Medium: 74-88
Low: 66-96
Really, the optimism seems misplaced given the lack of depth or pitching. Still, seeing Cueto and Volquez along with Votto and (possibly) Bruce come up and develop at the Major League level should allow them to look forward to the future.
Next: Houston Astros
Adam Dunn in left and Ken Griffey, Jr. in right both return to give decent offense from both spots. Griffey's age and injury history have taken a serious toll on his defensive ability (over-rated to begin with) but he is still an great hitter. Dunn's power and patience are more than enough to make up for his huge strikeout totals.
With Josh Hamilton moving on centerfield was up for grabs and late free agent signing Corey Patterson has settled into that role for the time being. Patterson's shown quite an improvement with his selectivity at the plate but it's hard to believe he'll be anything more than average.
It's more than likely at some point Jay Bruce will find his way up from the minors to displace Patterson.
The infield corners supply more offense with Edwin Encarnacion at third and 24-year old Joey Votto at first. This is Votto's first season but he should put of first baseman numbers straight away and next year he should be a real force. Encarnacion has a very good bat whilst not giving up anything with the glove.
With Alex Gonzalez sidelined with a knee injury, Jeff Keppinger has moved over to be the starting shortstop alongside Brandon Phillips at second. Both hit pretty well for middle infielders but especially with Keppinger out of his usual position they're fairly weak defensively.
Paul Bako behind the plate is a no-hit journeyman with his tenth team. His backup Javier Valentin is a much better hitter but Bako's experience and actual catching ability give him the slight edge for now.
The rest of the bench for now consists of Ryan Freel and Nate Hopper in the outfield (though Freel can cover the infield in a pinch too) with Juan Castro as the infield utility to guy and Scott Hatteberg backing up Votto at first.
Overall, the offense is pretty good and Bruce gives the possibility of it getting a little better still but the bench is a big dropoff. Not a lot of scope to deal with injuries if/when they come. (Yes, I'm looking at you Kenneth!)
The pitching has been a weakness generally in recent years but the Reds hope that changes this year starting with Aaron Harang back at the top of the rotation.
Harang is a good solid pitcher but sooner or later the park is going to catch up to him, you would think. Then again, he's been here a while now and somehow keeps on getting it done. He'll give up his share of homers but overall he should be a decent start to the rotation.
Bronson Arroyo in the second spot will probably see an uptick in his home run rate, though not as severely as his early-season stats are showing. Arroyo is probably no more than a #3 starter at best so a lot rests on their rookie Johnny Cueto.
Cueto is just 22 years old and has flown through the Reds' system. They hope he can bust out straight away but a more realistic expectation is for him to survive this year and grow into a big league role next year.
He's thrown less than 350 professional innings in the past 3 years since signing out of the Dominican Republic and ability aside, the Reds surely want to ease his innings up. (Then again, with Dusty managing him maybe he'll throw 150 pitches a night.)
Josh Fogg in the fourth spot has never been a good pitcher unless you count one decent AA season 8 years ago and isn't likely to suddenly become one now. That he has a job is a testament to how much Major League GMs like a known "name".
Another young kid, Edinson Volquez, fills out the last spot having come over from the Rangers in the Josh Hamilton deal. He's a decent talent and he should be serviceable enough but he's not yet polished enough to make up for the weaknesses elsewhere in the rotation.
With a weak staff a 7-man bullpen is a necessity for the Reds statring with closer Francisco Cordero.
David Weathers and Jared Burton behind him are serviceable enough but Jeremy Affeldt, Todd Coffey, Mike Lincoln and Kent Mercker(!) aren't going to inspire a lot of confidence.
Mercker is a perfect example of what being left-handed can do for a pitching career finding work at 40 after missing an entire year (for the sceond time) following Tommy John surgery.
The pitching is going to be something of a black hole again this year and the offense is going to need to work hard to make up for it.
Rough estimates for offense: 780 runs scored +/-39 and defense: 850 runs allowed +/-43.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 82-80
Medium: 74-88
Low: 66-96
Really, the optimism seems misplaced given the lack of depth or pitching. Still, seeing Cueto and Volquez along with Votto and (possibly) Bruce come up and develop at the Major League level should allow them to look forward to the future.
Next: Houston Astros
Friday, April 18, 2008
Chicago Cubs
Well, I need to crack on with the National League since we're about 10% through the season already.
First off is the NL Central starting with the Cubs. (Full disclosure: For those who don't know, I am a Cubs fan for my many sins.)
I thought I'd take an alternative tack from the mainstream sites with the Cubbies and look at their current roster instead of what they have done (or failed to do) over the last 100 years.
Alfonso Soriano returns in leftfield through for now his strained calf has put him on the DL to be replaced by Eric Patterson. Felix Pie and Reed Johnson will split time centerfield and new import Kosuke Fukudome.
Once Soriano returns, he and Fukudome should more than make up for the growing pains of Pie at the plate to make this an above average unit with the bats. In the field this is an extremely strong defensive unit.
With Soriano out though, Mark DeRosa will likely cover leftfield for the most part backed up by Patterson, weakening the defense a little and causing a significant drop in offense for the team.
DeRosa would otherwise be the starting second baseman so moving him to cover left makes Mike Fontenot an everyday player in his absence. Ryan Theriot is the double play partner at short and the corners are managed by Derrek Lee at first and Aramis Ramirez at third.
Both DeRosa and Fontenot are adequate hitters for second basemen though Theriot is fairly weak but tries to make up for it with a good running game.
Lee looks to have finally recovered fully from the broken wrist he suffered in 2006 which seemed to sap his power ("only" 22 home runs last year) and Aramis Ramirez is one of the top three hitting NL third basemen.
The defense is adequate but nothing special all the way around the diamond including catcher Geovany Soto who is another good asset at the plate.
Depth isn't great, however. Whichever of Johnson and Pie isn't playing puts a decent guy on the bench but the rest is shaky.
Aside from Patterson, who can backup at second as well as the outfield, there's Ronny Cedeno and Daryle Ward neither of whom are going to be mistaken for good hitters.
Henry Blanco is the backup catcher and is excellent defensively. Anything he does with the bat is just a bonus and certainly a big dropoff from Soto.
Overall, this offense looks really good with Soriano in it, but injuries could really have a big effect considering some of the replacement options.
The pitching staff starts off well with Carlos Zambrano heading the rotation. Z is a huge presence (in every sense) and a genuine top of the rotation guy coming off his worst season. Worst season is a relative term as he still posted his typical 200+ innings (5 straight years) of decent ball.
Ted Lilly and Rich Hill in the second and third spots, by contrast, pitched above themselves last year and there should be some regression though Hill should also continue to improve his underlying ability and offset much of that.
The three of them should make for a pretty tough group and will need to since Ryan Dempster and Jason Marquis fill out the rest of the rotation.
Dempster isn't horrible though for the back end of the staff but really he wasn't great in a relief role and expecting him to step his innings back up to starting levels and stay close to mediocre is pushing it.
Marquis isn't really much good except in an "innings-eating" capacity. If he can not suck too badly that has its use from a fifth starter.
Still, seeing those two starting whilst a much better option in Sean Marshall sits barely used in the bullpen (after starting the season at AAA) seems ridiculous. As a Cubs fan, it's sucks.
In the 'pen with Marshall (who replaced Carmen Pigniatello from the Opening Day roster) are Jon Lieber - who has proved invaluable in the long man role after a bunch of extra-innings games - Kevin Hart, Michael Wuertz, Bobby Howry, Carlos Marmol and closer Kerry Wood.
Scott Eyre is currently on the DL with elbow inflammation and will add an extra lefty to the relief corps when he returns, probably in a couple of weeks.
What the bullpen lacks in a genuine top quality reliever (though Marmol's close) it makes up for in a depth of decent arms.
Assuming the Cubs don't do something silly like pull Hill from the rotation for Lieber after a small sample size struggle, the pitching staff looks pretty reasonable and switching Marshall and Dempster would move it up another notch.
Forget 100 years, for me it's only been 29 years of watching the Cubs lose (either prodigiously or at just the wrong moment) and I try each season to downplay whatever sentiments of hope there may be so I don't get crushed again but it's hard not to look at this as being a decent team.
Rough estimates for offense: 830 runs scored +/-42 and defense: 750 runs allowed +/-38.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 97-65
Medium: 89-73
Low: 81-81
Decent pitching, good hitting, solid defense. This should be a good team. God help me.
First off is the NL Central starting with the Cubs. (Full disclosure: For those who don't know, I am a Cubs fan for my many sins.)
I thought I'd take an alternative tack from the mainstream sites with the Cubbies and look at their current roster instead of what they have done (or failed to do) over the last 100 years.
Alfonso Soriano returns in leftfield through for now his strained calf has put him on the DL to be replaced by Eric Patterson. Felix Pie and Reed Johnson will split time centerfield and new import Kosuke Fukudome.
Once Soriano returns, he and Fukudome should more than make up for the growing pains of Pie at the plate to make this an above average unit with the bats. In the field this is an extremely strong defensive unit.
With Soriano out though, Mark DeRosa will likely cover leftfield for the most part backed up by Patterson, weakening the defense a little and causing a significant drop in offense for the team.
DeRosa would otherwise be the starting second baseman so moving him to cover left makes Mike Fontenot an everyday player in his absence. Ryan Theriot is the double play partner at short and the corners are managed by Derrek Lee at first and Aramis Ramirez at third.
Both DeRosa and Fontenot are adequate hitters for second basemen though Theriot is fairly weak but tries to make up for it with a good running game.
Lee looks to have finally recovered fully from the broken wrist he suffered in 2006 which seemed to sap his power ("only" 22 home runs last year) and Aramis Ramirez is one of the top three hitting NL third basemen.
The defense is adequate but nothing special all the way around the diamond including catcher Geovany Soto who is another good asset at the plate.
Depth isn't great, however. Whichever of Johnson and Pie isn't playing puts a decent guy on the bench but the rest is shaky.
Aside from Patterson, who can backup at second as well as the outfield, there's Ronny Cedeno and Daryle Ward neither of whom are going to be mistaken for good hitters.
Henry Blanco is the backup catcher and is excellent defensively. Anything he does with the bat is just a bonus and certainly a big dropoff from Soto.
Overall, this offense looks really good with Soriano in it, but injuries could really have a big effect considering some of the replacement options.
The pitching staff starts off well with Carlos Zambrano heading the rotation. Z is a huge presence (in every sense) and a genuine top of the rotation guy coming off his worst season. Worst season is a relative term as he still posted his typical 200+ innings (5 straight years) of decent ball.
Ted Lilly and Rich Hill in the second and third spots, by contrast, pitched above themselves last year and there should be some regression though Hill should also continue to improve his underlying ability and offset much of that.
The three of them should make for a pretty tough group and will need to since Ryan Dempster and Jason Marquis fill out the rest of the rotation.
Dempster isn't horrible though for the back end of the staff but really he wasn't great in a relief role and expecting him to step his innings back up to starting levels and stay close to mediocre is pushing it.
Marquis isn't really much good except in an "innings-eating" capacity. If he can not suck too badly that has its use from a fifth starter.
Still, seeing those two starting whilst a much better option in Sean Marshall sits barely used in the bullpen (after starting the season at AAA) seems ridiculous. As a Cubs fan, it's sucks.
In the 'pen with Marshall (who replaced Carmen Pigniatello from the Opening Day roster) are Jon Lieber - who has proved invaluable in the long man role after a bunch of extra-innings games - Kevin Hart, Michael Wuertz, Bobby Howry, Carlos Marmol and closer Kerry Wood.
Scott Eyre is currently on the DL with elbow inflammation and will add an extra lefty to the relief corps when he returns, probably in a couple of weeks.
What the bullpen lacks in a genuine top quality reliever (though Marmol's close) it makes up for in a depth of decent arms.
Assuming the Cubs don't do something silly like pull Hill from the rotation for Lieber after a small sample size struggle, the pitching staff looks pretty reasonable and switching Marshall and Dempster would move it up another notch.
Forget 100 years, for me it's only been 29 years of watching the Cubs lose (either prodigiously or at just the wrong moment) and I try each season to downplay whatever sentiments of hope there may be so I don't get crushed again but it's hard not to look at this as being a decent team.
Rough estimates for offense: 830 runs scored +/-42 and defense: 750 runs allowed +/-38.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 97-65
Medium: 89-73
Low: 81-81
Decent pitching, good hitting, solid defense. This should be a good team. God help me.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
So, what's an average player? (Part 1 - The basics)
Since quite a few of the readers are either new to baseball or casual fans I'm going to try to make quite a few posts covering basic stuff, right down to glossaries and abbreviations for the baseball virgins.
Most of that can wait until I complete the NL previews but since (in the interests of brevity) I've referred a fair bit to players in terms of their relation to the average I figured it might be a good idea to give a general idea of what average is in MLB terms.
As the title gives away, this should be the first of a number of posts looking at the concept of average (and the related concept of replacement) players and is going to start very simplistically.
I'm only looking at hitting and pitching and using the bare bones "media-friendly" statistics.
For hitting I'll list extended batting lines in the form: Batting average/On-base percentage/Slugging percentage/OPS
(For the rookie readers these will get explained a bit later, but suffice to say the bigger the better
- lines like this are fairly commonplace, usually omitting the fourth which is simply On base added to Slugging)
For pitching it's ERA (the lower the better in this case).
These aren't necessarily the best stats for evaluation (the pitching ones are downright lousy at it) but for now I'll put them out for the sake of accessibility. Later posts will look at more useful evaluation tools.
First off, the overall Major league averages (all figures are from 2007 season):
Hitting: .268/.336/.423/.758
Pitching: 4.47
There's a small difference between the leagues, however, in large part due to the DH rule in the AL so:
AL Hitting: .271/.338/.423/.761
NL Hitting: .266/.334/.423/.757
AL Pitching: 4.52
NL Pitching: 4.44
The bigger differences, however, are between positions.
Obviously, some positions are tougher to play defensively so less players are able to do so. The toughest defensive positions have the smallest pool of players and therefore the weakest average hitting level.
So, broken down by league and position the averages look like:
AL C: .254 /.318/.395/.713
AL 1B: .267/.348/.443/.790
AL 2B: .284 /.339/.416/.755
AL 3B: .266/.334/.427/.761
AL SS: .269/.322/.391/.713
AL LF: .275/.335/.426/.760
AL CF: .272/.340/.414/.754
AL RF: .288/.359/.465/.824
AL DH: .268/.355/.447/.802
NL C: .257/.318/.394/.712
NL 1B: .284/.365/.481/.846
NL 2B: .272/.341/.418/.759
NL 3B: .280/.348/.456/.805
NL SS: .279/.337/.420/.758
NL LF: .278/.358/.478/.835
NL CF: .273/.336/.426/.762
NL RF: .275/.344/.442/.786
NL DH*: .274/.343/.444/.787
(*small sample size caveat applies since they only occur in road interleague games; also I've not bothered listing pitchers hitting abilities here since they're generally assumed to be next to non-existent - not true, but that's for another time)
Similarly, starting pitchers differ from relievers both in their ability to last more innings and (for many other reasons) the expected results level:
AL Starting Pitchers: 4.61
AL Relief Pitchers: 4.33
NL Starting Pitchers: 4.64
NL Relief Pitchers: 4 .08
For now, I just wanted the numbers there to help provide a frame of reference to make a little more sense of what I mean when I refer to a player as average or above-average or whatever. Specifically the differences between average hitters at various positions.
In the next installment I'll go into this a bit further looking at league and positional differences. We'll also look at why Batting Average and ERA are poor evaluating tools and examine better ways of judging who is good and who isn't from the numbers side (predominantly).
Data for this post taken from baseball-reference.com
Most of that can wait until I complete the NL previews but since (in the interests of brevity) I've referred a fair bit to players in terms of their relation to the average I figured it might be a good idea to give a general idea of what average is in MLB terms.
As the title gives away, this should be the first of a number of posts looking at the concept of average (and the related concept of replacement) players and is going to start very simplistically.
I'm only looking at hitting and pitching and using the bare bones "media-friendly" statistics.
For hitting I'll list extended batting lines in the form: Batting average/On-base percentage/Slugging percentage/OPS
(For the rookie readers these will get explained a bit later, but suffice to say the bigger the better
- lines like this are fairly commonplace, usually omitting the fourth which is simply On base added to Slugging)
For pitching it's ERA (the lower the better in this case).
These aren't necessarily the best stats for evaluation (the pitching ones are downright lousy at it) but for now I'll put them out for the sake of accessibility. Later posts will look at more useful evaluation tools.
First off, the overall Major league averages (all figures are from 2007 season):
Hitting: .268/.336/.423/.758
Pitching: 4.47
There's a small difference between the leagues, however, in large part due to the DH rule in the AL so:
AL Hitting: .271/.338/.423/.761
NL Hitting: .266/.334/.423/.757
AL Pitching: 4.52
NL Pitching: 4.44
The bigger differences, however, are between positions.
Obviously, some positions are tougher to play defensively so less players are able to do so. The toughest defensive positions have the smallest pool of players and therefore the weakest average hitting level.
So, broken down by league and position the averages look like:
AL C: .254 /.318/.395/.713
AL 1B: .267/.348/.443/.790
AL 2B: .284 /.339/.416/.755
AL 3B: .266/.334/.427/.761
AL SS: .269/.322/.391/.713
AL LF: .275/.335/.426/.760
AL CF: .272/.340/.414/.754
AL RF: .288/.359/.465/.824
AL DH: .268/.355/.447/.802
NL C: .257/.318/.394/.712
NL 1B: .284/.365/.481/.846
NL 2B: .272/.341/.418/.759
NL 3B: .280/.348/.456/.805
NL SS: .279/.337/.420/.758
NL LF: .278/.358/.478/.835
NL CF: .273/.336/.426/.762
NL RF: .275/.344/.442/.786
NL DH*: .274/.343/.444/.787
(*small sample size caveat applies since they only occur in road interleague games; also I've not bothered listing pitchers hitting abilities here since they're generally assumed to be next to non-existent - not true, but that's for another time)
Similarly, starting pitchers differ from relievers both in their ability to last more innings and (for many other reasons) the expected results level:
AL Starting Pitchers: 4.61
AL Relief Pitchers: 4.33
NL Starting Pitchers: 4.64
NL Relief Pitchers: 4 .08
For now, I just wanted the numbers there to help provide a frame of reference to make a little more sense of what I mean when I refer to a player as average or above-average or whatever. Specifically the differences between average hitters at various positions.
In the next installment I'll go into this a bit further looking at league and positional differences. We'll also look at why Batting Average and ERA are poor evaluating tools and examine better ways of judging who is good and who isn't from the numbers side (predominantly).
Data for this post taken from baseball-reference.com
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
The American League
So, I've got Cleveland winning the Central with the AL's best record; the Yankees take the East and homefield advantage over West champions Angels.
Tampa take the wildcard and head for Cleveland for their first taste of the postseason.
With the extreme caveat that the playoffs is pretty much a crapshoot I'll include predictions for the playoffs for completeness.
Rays over Indians in 4
Yankees over Angels in 5
Rays over Yankees in 5
Yes, I really am putting the Rays into the Series. Well, like I said, it's a crapshoot so I may as well pick the playoff results I like best.
One more caveat before going on to awards: In the previous posts for each division I wasn't really predicting winners for awards as much as who I thought would perform best (rarely the same thing). For the overall league ones, given that they actually exist, I'll include who I think will win in brackets after my pick for who should.
MVP
Grady Sizemore (Alex Rodriguez)
Cy Young
Felix Hernandez (Fausto Carmona)
Rookie of the Year
Daric Barton (Daric Barton) - note: ok, given he's been called up much earlier than expected it'll probably be Longoria now, but I'll stick with the "pre-season view".
Manager of the Year
Trey Hillman (Joe Maddon)
I don't care enough about the All-Star Game to bother trying to put together a roster to fit their arcane rules so feel free to imagine one you like in the space below:
Next: A quick diversion into league and positional averages then rushing on to the NL whilst it's still April.
Tampa take the wildcard and head for Cleveland for their first taste of the postseason.
With the extreme caveat that the playoffs is pretty much a crapshoot I'll include predictions for the playoffs for completeness.
Rays over Indians in 4
Yankees over Angels in 5
Rays over Yankees in 5
Yes, I really am putting the Rays into the Series. Well, like I said, it's a crapshoot so I may as well pick the playoff results I like best.
One more caveat before going on to awards: In the previous posts for each division I wasn't really predicting winners for awards as much as who I thought would perform best (rarely the same thing). For the overall league ones, given that they actually exist, I'll include who I think will win in brackets after my pick for who should.
MVP
Grady Sizemore (Alex Rodriguez)
Cy Young
Felix Hernandez (Fausto Carmona)
Rookie of the Year
Daric Barton (Daric Barton) - note: ok, given he's been called up much earlier than expected it'll probably be Longoria now, but I'll stick with the "pre-season view".
Manager of the Year
Trey Hillman (Joe Maddon)
I don't care enough about the All-Star Game to bother trying to put together a roster to fit their arcane rules so feel free to imagine one you like in the space below:
Next: A quick diversion into league and positional averages then rushing on to the NL whilst it's still April.
AL West
Final standings predictions look like:
Somebody has to win the division and it's hard to see it being anyone but the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
Seattle in last goes right against "popular wisdom" with many commentators seeing them as challengers for a playoff spot. Then again, many of them think Seattle have the best defense in the league!
Oakland and Texas will likely both be content with ~.500 finishes this season and look forward to building on that for next year.
AL West All-Star Team
C - Kenji Johjima (seriously!)
1B - Daric Barton
2B - Ian Kinsler
3B - Adrian Beltre
SS - Michael Young
LF - Travis Buck (yes, I'm moving him to the left because I don't like my options)
CF - Ichiro!
RF - Vlad Guerrero
DH - Josh Hamilton
SP - Felix Hernandez
SP - Erik Bedard
SP - Rich Harden
SP - John Lackey
SP - Jon Garland (yes, the division is so bad my All-Star rotation consists of three injured guys and Jon freaking Garland!)
Bench
Gerald Laird
Raul Ibañez (for pinch-hitting and occasional DHing only)
Jose Lopez
Chone Figgins
Torii Hunter
Bullpen
J.J. Putz
Huston Street
Francisco Rodriguez
Eric O'Flaherty (oops, he's just been sent back to the minors, oh well)
Scot Shields
Justin Speier
MVP?
Ichiro!
Cy?
King Felix (MVP and Cy both from the bottom club!?)
ROY?
Barton
I think I'll just move straight on to the AL overall without further comment on this division...
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Anaheim | 87 | 75 |
| Oakland | 80 | 82 |
| Texas | 79 | 83 |
| Seattle | 75 | 87 |
Seattle in last goes right against "popular wisdom" with many commentators seeing them as challengers for a playoff spot. Then again, many of them think Seattle have the best defense in the league!
Oakland and Texas will likely both be content with ~.500 finishes this season and look forward to building on that for next year.
AL West All-Star Team
C - Kenji Johjima (seriously!)
1B - Daric Barton
2B - Ian Kinsler
3B - Adrian Beltre
SS - Michael Young
LF - Travis Buck (yes, I'm moving him to the left because I don't like my options)
CF - Ichiro!
RF - Vlad Guerrero
DH - Josh Hamilton
SP - Felix Hernandez
SP - Erik Bedard
SP - Rich Harden
SP - John Lackey
SP - Jon Garland (yes, the division is so bad my All-Star rotation consists of three injured guys and Jon freaking Garland!)
Bench
Gerald Laird
Raul Ibañez (for pinch-hitting and occasional DHing only)
Jose Lopez
Chone Figgins
Torii Hunter
Bullpen
J.J. Putz
Huston Street
Francisco Rodriguez
Eric O'Flaherty (oops, he's just been sent back to the minors, oh well)
Scot Shields
Justin Speier
MVP?
Ichiro!
Cy?
King Felix (MVP and Cy both from the bottom club!?)
ROY?
Barton
I think I'll just move straight on to the AL overall without further comment on this division...
Monday, April 14, 2008
Texas Rangers
The (sort of) halfway line is in sight. the last of the AL teams is the Texas Rangers who have had such a hard time in recent years that even the tried and tested method of hiring Buck Showalter for a few years to win the year after you fire him failed!
This year's team looks a lot different last year beginning with their mix-and-match outfield/DH combination of returnees Marlon Byrd and Frank Catalanotto and newcomers Josh Hamilton, David Murphy and Milton Bradley.
Bradley figures to see most of his time at DH with Byrd and Catalanotto splitting one spot and Hamilton and Murphy starting in the outfield pretty much every game. It doesn't look like they're particular settled on any particular outfield position on the whole willing to mix and match their alignments to (hopefully) best suit the defensive talents of the guys playing that night.
A platoon of sorts with Byrd and Catalanotto is passable and Murphy's ok but nothing special but the addition of Hamilton makes the outfield pretty reasonable bordering on decent overall.
Bradley's not really enough of hitter to justify a DH spot but viewed as a five-man rotation for the four lineup spots this group can hold its own.
The middle infield combination of Michael Young at short and Ian Kinsler at second provides this team a big offensive strength at traditionally light-hitting spots.
Michael Young's no secret and I've been beating the drum for Kinsler since his lucklustre days as a Sun Devil and am finally starting to look like less of an idiot. Neither is anything special with the leather but they bring enough lumber to more than compensate at their positions.
Hank Blalock and his surgically repaired shoulder make a return to the hot corner but his poor defense and over-rated bat are unlikely to return to their previous levels.
Ben Broussard fills out the lineup trying to replace Mark Teixeira at first. Unfortunately, he's a hell of a lot worse than Teixeira (no knock) and underscores how bad that trade was for the short term.
Gerald Laird returns to catch proving a solid target for the pitching staff which makes up for his bat.
Jason Botts, Nelson Cruz, Ramon Vazquez and backup catcher Adam Melhuse make up the bench along with whichever of the OF/DH group is sitting.
The team has an absolute glut of talent at the catcher position waiting in the minors in Jarrod Saltalamacchia (from the Teixeira trade) along with Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden.
All three of those guys are Major League ready hitters this year, but with serious questions about their abilities behind the plate. If those can be answered then the Rangers have some valuable commodities going forward but they lose a lot of value if they need to shift positions. Still, it would be a surprise if Texas doesn't move Ramirez or Teagarden for talent at other spots at some point soon.
The pitching staff returns Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla and last year's midseason steal (along with Murphy) Kason Gabbard and adds Jason Jennings and Luis Mendoza.
Millwood's the only one likely to post an even halfway respectable ERA, though Gabbard might step up to be ok. The rest is likely to get ugly especially with a weak infield and a home run haven.
Mendoza was jumped straight from AA last year and really needs some work before he has a shot. Even then he's a fringe player.
The bullpen isn't filled with big name closers but looks to be solidly effective.
C.J. Wilson is the closer with Joaquin Benoit, Kazuo Fukumori, Jamey Wright, Franklyn German, Josh Rupe and Dustin Nippert bridging the gap from the starters.
The main problem is a lack of left-handers outside of Wilson, though when veteran Eddie Guardado returns from the DL that should improve.
Nippert and Wright have been fighting through minor injuries as well, but shouldn't be a major worry.
The 'pen should improve again around the All-Star break if John Rheinecker (another lefty) is able to return well from his shoulder surgery as expected.
Rough estimates for offense: 830 runs scored +/-42 and defense: 850 runs allowed +/-43.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 87-75
Medium: 79-83
Low: 71-91
This is another team in transition but the organisation as a whole is starting to look healthier again. How well they handle the Saltalamacchia/Ramirez/Teagarden situation is going to have a big impact going forward.
This year's team looks a lot different last year beginning with their mix-and-match outfield/DH combination of returnees Marlon Byrd and Frank Catalanotto and newcomers Josh Hamilton, David Murphy and Milton Bradley.
Bradley figures to see most of his time at DH with Byrd and Catalanotto splitting one spot and Hamilton and Murphy starting in the outfield pretty much every game. It doesn't look like they're particular settled on any particular outfield position on the whole willing to mix and match their alignments to (hopefully) best suit the defensive talents of the guys playing that night.
A platoon of sorts with Byrd and Catalanotto is passable and Murphy's ok but nothing special but the addition of Hamilton makes the outfield pretty reasonable bordering on decent overall.
Bradley's not really enough of hitter to justify a DH spot but viewed as a five-man rotation for the four lineup spots this group can hold its own.
The middle infield combination of Michael Young at short and Ian Kinsler at second provides this team a big offensive strength at traditionally light-hitting spots.
Michael Young's no secret and I've been beating the drum for Kinsler since his lucklustre days as a Sun Devil and am finally starting to look like less of an idiot. Neither is anything special with the leather but they bring enough lumber to more than compensate at their positions.
Hank Blalock and his surgically repaired shoulder make a return to the hot corner but his poor defense and over-rated bat are unlikely to return to their previous levels.
Ben Broussard fills out the lineup trying to replace Mark Teixeira at first. Unfortunately, he's a hell of a lot worse than Teixeira (no knock) and underscores how bad that trade was for the short term.
Gerald Laird returns to catch proving a solid target for the pitching staff which makes up for his bat.
Jason Botts, Nelson Cruz, Ramon Vazquez and backup catcher Adam Melhuse make up the bench along with whichever of the OF/DH group is sitting.
The team has an absolute glut of talent at the catcher position waiting in the minors in Jarrod Saltalamacchia (from the Teixeira trade) along with Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden.
All three of those guys are Major League ready hitters this year, but with serious questions about their abilities behind the plate. If those can be answered then the Rangers have some valuable commodities going forward but they lose a lot of value if they need to shift positions. Still, it would be a surprise if Texas doesn't move Ramirez or Teagarden for talent at other spots at some point soon.
The pitching staff returns Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla and last year's midseason steal (along with Murphy) Kason Gabbard and adds Jason Jennings and Luis Mendoza.
Millwood's the only one likely to post an even halfway respectable ERA, though Gabbard might step up to be ok. The rest is likely to get ugly especially with a weak infield and a home run haven.
Mendoza was jumped straight from AA last year and really needs some work before he has a shot. Even then he's a fringe player.
The bullpen isn't filled with big name closers but looks to be solidly effective.
C.J. Wilson is the closer with Joaquin Benoit, Kazuo Fukumori, Jamey Wright, Franklyn German, Josh Rupe and Dustin Nippert bridging the gap from the starters.
The main problem is a lack of left-handers outside of Wilson, though when veteran Eddie Guardado returns from the DL that should improve.
Nippert and Wright have been fighting through minor injuries as well, but shouldn't be a major worry.
The 'pen should improve again around the All-Star break if John Rheinecker (another lefty) is able to return well from his shoulder surgery as expected.
Rough estimates for offense: 830 runs scored +/-42 and defense: 850 runs allowed +/-43.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 87-75
Medium: 79-83
Low: 71-91
This is another team in transition but the organisation as a whole is starting to look healthier again. How well they handle the Saltalamacchia/Ramirez/Teagarden situation is going to have a big impact going forward.
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners seem to have a habit of finding themselves involved in particularly interesting trades and whilst this years swap of Adam Jones, George Sherrill and a trio of minor league pitchers (righties Chris Tillman and Kam Mickolio and southpaw Tony Butler) isn't quite in the Varitek and Low for Heathcliffe Slocumb league it may not be far off.
We already covered Jones and Sherrill under the Orioles but it's worth noting that two of Seattle's biggest holes are its outfield defense (hello, Adam) and the depth of its relief corps (hi, George!).
Enough about who isn't here for now, let's look at what's left in Seattle.
Ichiro! in centerfield is going to find himself way beyond overworked since Raul Ibañez returns in leftfield and Brad Wilkerson takes over in rightfield.
Safeco Field has the largest leftfield expanse in the AL and Ibañez is just not capable of covering a significant portion of it. Wilkerson was formerly a pretty decent fielder but has declined in recent years losing what speed he had.
Offensively, Ichiro! is still the most exciting player in the Majors to watch and Ibañez' bat is not his problem (except against left-handed pitching) though Wilkerson is unlikely to provide any significant offensive threat for the Mariners.
It appears that the Mariners brain-trust (a loose term) are not only blind to the relative values of their prospects (see trade), the importance of defence (see Ibañez not DH-ing) but also to the relevance of Spring Training stats (none) and how to use platoons.
To that end, Mike Morse has ridden an incredibly good ST into over-writing the fact that he's just not very good and never has been into a job platooning with Wilkerson (who has no significant platoon split, unlike, say, Ibañez). Morse, by the way, is an infielder with no significant experience (or ability) in the outfield just to amplify the weakness.
In the infield, Adrian Beltre starts at third with a decent bat and an excellent glove opposite Richie Sexson at first in just about every sense.
Sexson's bat speed (and with it pitch recognition) are pretty much entirely gone and his fielding has declined from terrible.
In the middle of the infield, the double-play combination of Yuniesky Betancourt at short and Jose Lopez provide most of this club's hope for progress. Lopez struggled last year whilst dealing with personal issues and will, hopefully, bounce back well. His glove should be enough to keep him in the lineup (on a team that recognises such things) but he should be able to hit some too.
Betancourt's defense was excellent just a couple of year's ago but has quickly declined. He's a bad habit of bad throws and now his range is dropping as his size increases. Whether a commensurate increase in offense, especially power, can offset that to give Yuni value is unclear but for now he appears to be heading in the wrong direction.
Kenji Johjima returns at catcher and despite a likely small decline should be more than adequate for now, certainly more so than the worst DH in the league: Jose Vidro.
Vidro's numbers last year are something of a mirage (.342 BABIP), looking better than they were and behind the high and hollow average was nothing but an excess of double plays.
The bench may well be the worst ever constructed. until the recent callup of Greg Norton replacing Charlie Jimerson there wasn't a single right-hander on the bench. They're carrying two poor-hitting utility guys in Miguel Cairo and local boy Willie Bloomquist who essential perform the same role. Poorly.
Jamie Burke rounds out the bench as the backup catcher and lone bright spot on the pine.
The rotation will need to do a lot to make up for the lack of offensive production so new acquisition Erik Bedard is under plenty of pressure.
He becomes ace 1a for Seattle after his excellent breakout season last year. It's unlikely he can maintain the strikeout rate from 2007 (it jumped about 40% from his career line) but he should still be very good and movies from Camden Yards to Safeco will help mask some things, unfortunately playing without corner outfielders will make things look worse.
Bedard's pretty much doomed to have numbers worse than his performance which will make him appear to be a failure for the Mariners regardless, but results aside he should pitch well for them when he's able. His injury history is worrying and there's no sense in expecting a 200+ innings season from Bedard this year or next.
Ace 1b is 22-year old Felix Hernandez. Yes, he's still just 22 (actually he turned 22 on Tuesday) and already well established as a quality Major Leaguer.
King Felix has plenty of scope for improvement still, but even if he just maintains his performance level he should be excellent. It's odd to note, but for someone who pitches half his games in Safeco field he actually gives up an unusually high number of home runs per fly. A fluke that should settle down to improve his numbers.
If Felix can avoid falling into the trap of "establishing the fastball early" and use his three plus-plus pitches more often (his fastball's good but easily the weak pitch in his arsenal) then maybe this year he could take the leap.
Jarrod Washburn is a long way removed from being a half-decent pitcher and his extreme flyball tendencies will lead to a lot of doubles with Ibañez and Wilkerson behind him.
Carlos Silva is often described as an "innings-eater" which is pretty much code for mediocre but durable. Silva strikes out about one batter a year so relies very heavily on his defense to make outs. Uh-oh. Fortunately he has a strong groundball tendency which will mean the extra damage isn't quite as bad as it could be, but he's not going to enjoy pitching with this team behind him. (I'm resisting all temptation to make other "eating" jokes about Silva.)
Miguel Batista in the fifth spot is a decent nothing special guy who can be used as a swingman out of the bullpen if necessary as well as as an average starter.
That bullpen starts with J.J. Putz, or did until he was placed on the DL with costochondritis. He's started throwing again already and looks like he might be back soon but costocondritis is a tricky ailment inflammation of rib cartilage) and there's an strong chance that he could miss a fair amount of time over this.
Eric O'Flaherty and Ryan Rowland-Smith are a decent pair of lefty options and Sean Green and Mark Lowe are solid from the right. Cha Seung Baek is the long man and presumably 6th starter and Roy Corcoran's filling in until Putz returns.
This bullpen with Putz could be a great strength. Unfortunately, the Mariners have one of the worst managers this side of Dusty Baker and it appears likely they'll not be used to their strengths.
The team is interesting as an example of management not recognising what they had and being blinded by superficial numbers. Seattle won 88 games last year despite being outscored and the front office has seen the 88 as truth and worked from that basis to "win now" without realising that they have no offense, no defense and some very nervous pitchers.
Rough estimates for offense: 720 runs scored +/-36 and defense: 800 runs allowed +/-40.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 81-81
Medium: 72-90
Low: 65-97
Even if everything goes perfectly for the Mariners, I have a hard time seeing them as the contenders their front office thinks they are. Given that, getting rid off half the farm especially Jones and Sherrill looks like one hell of a bad trade. Not because Bedard's not good but because Bedard can't make this team win on his own and he'll be gone in two years.
Up Next: Texas rounds out the American League
We already covered Jones and Sherrill under the Orioles but it's worth noting that two of Seattle's biggest holes are its outfield defense (hello, Adam) and the depth of its relief corps (hi, George!).
Enough about who isn't here for now, let's look at what's left in Seattle.
Ichiro! in centerfield is going to find himself way beyond overworked since Raul Ibañez returns in leftfield and Brad Wilkerson takes over in rightfield.
Safeco Field has the largest leftfield expanse in the AL and Ibañez is just not capable of covering a significant portion of it. Wilkerson was formerly a pretty decent fielder but has declined in recent years losing what speed he had.
Offensively, Ichiro! is still the most exciting player in the Majors to watch and Ibañez' bat is not his problem (except against left-handed pitching) though Wilkerson is unlikely to provide any significant offensive threat for the Mariners.
It appears that the Mariners brain-trust (a loose term) are not only blind to the relative values of their prospects (see trade), the importance of defence (see Ibañez not DH-ing) but also to the relevance of Spring Training stats (none) and how to use platoons.
To that end, Mike Morse has ridden an incredibly good ST into over-writing the fact that he's just not very good and never has been into a job platooning with Wilkerson (who has no significant platoon split, unlike, say, Ibañez). Morse, by the way, is an infielder with no significant experience (or ability) in the outfield just to amplify the weakness.
In the infield, Adrian Beltre starts at third with a decent bat and an excellent glove opposite Richie Sexson at first in just about every sense.
Sexson's bat speed (and with it pitch recognition) are pretty much entirely gone and his fielding has declined from terrible.
In the middle of the infield, the double-play combination of Yuniesky Betancourt at short and Jose Lopez provide most of this club's hope for progress. Lopez struggled last year whilst dealing with personal issues and will, hopefully, bounce back well. His glove should be enough to keep him in the lineup (on a team that recognises such things) but he should be able to hit some too.
Betancourt's defense was excellent just a couple of year's ago but has quickly declined. He's a bad habit of bad throws and now his range is dropping as his size increases. Whether a commensurate increase in offense, especially power, can offset that to give Yuni value is unclear but for now he appears to be heading in the wrong direction.
Kenji Johjima returns at catcher and despite a likely small decline should be more than adequate for now, certainly more so than the worst DH in the league: Jose Vidro.
Vidro's numbers last year are something of a mirage (.342 BABIP), looking better than they were and behind the high and hollow average was nothing but an excess of double plays.
The bench may well be the worst ever constructed. until the recent callup of Greg Norton replacing Charlie Jimerson there wasn't a single right-hander on the bench. They're carrying two poor-hitting utility guys in Miguel Cairo and local boy Willie Bloomquist who essential perform the same role. Poorly.
Jamie Burke rounds out the bench as the backup catcher and lone bright spot on the pine.
The rotation will need to do a lot to make up for the lack of offensive production so new acquisition Erik Bedard is under plenty of pressure.
He becomes ace 1a for Seattle after his excellent breakout season last year. It's unlikely he can maintain the strikeout rate from 2007 (it jumped about 40% from his career line) but he should still be very good and movies from Camden Yards to Safeco will help mask some things, unfortunately playing without corner outfielders will make things look worse.
Bedard's pretty much doomed to have numbers worse than his performance which will make him appear to be a failure for the Mariners regardless, but results aside he should pitch well for them when he's able. His injury history is worrying and there's no sense in expecting a 200+ innings season from Bedard this year or next.
Ace 1b is 22-year old Felix Hernandez. Yes, he's still just 22 (actually he turned 22 on Tuesday) and already well established as a quality Major Leaguer.
King Felix has plenty of scope for improvement still, but even if he just maintains his performance level he should be excellent. It's odd to note, but for someone who pitches half his games in Safeco field he actually gives up an unusually high number of home runs per fly. A fluke that should settle down to improve his numbers.
If Felix can avoid falling into the trap of "establishing the fastball early" and use his three plus-plus pitches more often (his fastball's good but easily the weak pitch in his arsenal) then maybe this year he could take the leap.
Jarrod Washburn is a long way removed from being a half-decent pitcher and his extreme flyball tendencies will lead to a lot of doubles with Ibañez and Wilkerson behind him.
Carlos Silva is often described as an "innings-eater" which is pretty much code for mediocre but durable. Silva strikes out about one batter a year so relies very heavily on his defense to make outs. Uh-oh. Fortunately he has a strong groundball tendency which will mean the extra damage isn't quite as bad as it could be, but he's not going to enjoy pitching with this team behind him. (I'm resisting all temptation to make other "eating" jokes about Silva.)
Miguel Batista in the fifth spot is a decent nothing special guy who can be used as a swingman out of the bullpen if necessary as well as as an average starter.
That bullpen starts with J.J. Putz, or did until he was placed on the DL with costochondritis. He's started throwing again already and looks like he might be back soon but costocondritis is a tricky ailment inflammation of rib cartilage) and there's an strong chance that he could miss a fair amount of time over this.
Eric O'Flaherty and Ryan Rowland-Smith are a decent pair of lefty options and Sean Green and Mark Lowe are solid from the right. Cha Seung Baek is the long man and presumably 6th starter and Roy Corcoran's filling in until Putz returns.
This bullpen with Putz could be a great strength. Unfortunately, the Mariners have one of the worst managers this side of Dusty Baker and it appears likely they'll not be used to their strengths.
The team is interesting as an example of management not recognising what they had and being blinded by superficial numbers. Seattle won 88 games last year despite being outscored and the front office has seen the 88 as truth and worked from that basis to "win now" without realising that they have no offense, no defense and some very nervous pitchers.
Rough estimates for offense: 720 runs scored +/-36 and defense: 800 runs allowed +/-40.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 81-81
Medium: 72-90
Low: 65-97
Even if everything goes perfectly for the Mariners, I have a hard time seeing them as the contenders their front office thinks they are. Given that, getting rid off half the farm especially Jones and Sherrill looks like one hell of a bad trade. Not because Bedard's not good but because Bedard can't make this team win on his own and he'll be gone in two years.
Up Next: Texas rounds out the American League
Saturday, April 12, 2008
Oakland Athletics
So, the A's are coming off their first losing season since 1998 and Billy Beane announces they are entering full fire-sale rebuilding mode and ships off their best pitcher (Dan Haren) and best hitter (Nick Swisher) along with Mark Kotsay, Marco Scutaro and Connor Robertson for 13 players and cash.
Somehow, they still look capable of being competitive enough (in this division at least) to make things interesting in September.
Daric Barton at first and Jack Hannahan at third give Oakland a new look at the corners while the double-play combo of Mark Ellis at second and Bobby Crosby at short remains intact.
Ellis and Barton both hit well for their positions and Hannahan should be able to hold his own but Crosby is definitely more in there for his glove than bat. Ellis and Hannahan are both a big plus defensively as well providing more than a little "hidden" value.
The A's have Kurt Suzuki as the starter at catcher backed up by Rob Bowen. Neither of them are anything special but it's a huge upgrade over letting Jason Kendall play half your games.
One of the players received in all those trades feature at centerfield with Ryan Sweeney starting there and Emil Brown in left and Travis Buck in right will flank him.
Sweeney's nothing special with a bat but is certainly better suited to playing centerfield than other options whilst Brown is best suited as the right-handed half of a platoon. Buck broke out in a smallish sample last year and should continue to do pretty well this year even given his painfully slow start.
Jack Cust recovered from so many teams' scrapheap to become a household name (9th in AL in OPS last year) returns to DH and demonstrate serious Three True Outcomes hitting.
Aside from Bowen the bench has Donnie Murphy to cover the infield, Chris Denorfia for the outfield and the rotting corpse of Mike Sweeney as a backup DH!
Sweeney's seeing a fair bit of playing time as Cust is sometimes being used in the outfield in place of Brown/Buck but presumably he'll be injured soon. (Sweeney's average ~110 games played per season over the last 11 years and hasn't seen the right side of 130 since 2001!)
Notably absent is star 3B Eric Chavez who underwent back surgery (among other things) in the offseason and has yet to recover. He had a second epidural treatment a week ago and is unlikely to even start "baseball activities" until the end of the month at the very earliest. With luck he might be back by the end of May, but the All-Star break is looking more realistic.
Still, after the past couple of seasons they're getting used to big injury hits and maybe that's just as well as things are worse on the pitching side.
As well as losing Haren in a trade, the team is without Rich Harden (shoulder sprain), Justin Duchscherer (strained bicep) and Kiko Calero (torn rotator cuff). Duchsherer is eligible to return next Sunday and looks reasonably promising to return but Calero is on the shelf until (at least) the end of May and it's not yet clear whether he'll have to be shut down and miss the whole season.
Harden appears nearly ready to return but the team are take an overly cautious approach and won't rush him back either.
All of which places Joe Blanton at the head of the rotation (at least until he joins the traded list) with Dana Eveland, Chad Gaudin and Greg Smith behind him. If Duchscherer or Harden haven't returned when the A's need a fifth starter thay'll likely look to swingman Lenny DiNardo.
Blanton and Gaudin are both good enough to keep things on an even keel for a short while until Harden and Duchscherer return, assuming it isn't too long. Eveland and especially Smith are rather shakier though.
Given Oakland's "rebuild" intent it's likely they'll take whatever they get though rather than rushing Harden back so these two kids - who both came over in the Haren deal - are going to have to step up earlier than expected.
Aside from missing Calero the bullpen is mostly intact with Huston Street and Alan Embree both returning at the back end.
The unretired Keith Foulke joins them along with youngsters Santiago Casilla, Andrew Brown, Joey Devine and Fernando Hernandez. DiNardo is also in the bullpen for now.
As a group they're pretty reasonable but not great (except Street) which on the whole sums up this team. A few good flashes but mostly fairly middle of the road, a road pitted with holes from injury.
If they can get healthy maybe they can take advantage of a weak division but it looks more like a year for some young guys to get experience and for Beane to see what he's got to work with.
Rough estimates for offense: 760 runs scored +/-38 and defense: 770 runs allowed +/-39.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 88-74
Medium: 80-82
Low: 72-90
Given the talent that has been traded away or injured anything around .500 will be pretty impressive but it will take a lot of luck to post a playoff record.
Next: Seattle Mariners
Somehow, they still look capable of being competitive enough (in this division at least) to make things interesting in September.
Daric Barton at first and Jack Hannahan at third give Oakland a new look at the corners while the double-play combo of Mark Ellis at second and Bobby Crosby at short remains intact.
Ellis and Barton both hit well for their positions and Hannahan should be able to hold his own but Crosby is definitely more in there for his glove than bat. Ellis and Hannahan are both a big plus defensively as well providing more than a little "hidden" value.
The A's have Kurt Suzuki as the starter at catcher backed up by Rob Bowen. Neither of them are anything special but it's a huge upgrade over letting Jason Kendall play half your games.
One of the players received in all those trades feature at centerfield with Ryan Sweeney starting there and Emil Brown in left and Travis Buck in right will flank him.
Sweeney's nothing special with a bat but is certainly better suited to playing centerfield than other options whilst Brown is best suited as the right-handed half of a platoon. Buck broke out in a smallish sample last year and should continue to do pretty well this year even given his painfully slow start.
Jack Cust recovered from so many teams' scrapheap to become a household name (9th in AL in OPS last year) returns to DH and demonstrate serious Three True Outcomes hitting.
Aside from Bowen the bench has Donnie Murphy to cover the infield, Chris Denorfia for the outfield and the rotting corpse of Mike Sweeney as a backup DH!
Sweeney's seeing a fair bit of playing time as Cust is sometimes being used in the outfield in place of Brown/Buck but presumably he'll be injured soon. (Sweeney's average ~110 games played per season over the last 11 years and hasn't seen the right side of 130 since 2001!)
Notably absent is star 3B Eric Chavez who underwent back surgery (among other things) in the offseason and has yet to recover. He had a second epidural treatment a week ago and is unlikely to even start "baseball activities" until the end of the month at the very earliest. With luck he might be back by the end of May, but the All-Star break is looking more realistic.
Still, after the past couple of seasons they're getting used to big injury hits and maybe that's just as well as things are worse on the pitching side.
As well as losing Haren in a trade, the team is without Rich Harden (shoulder sprain), Justin Duchscherer (strained bicep) and Kiko Calero (torn rotator cuff). Duchsherer is eligible to return next Sunday and looks reasonably promising to return but Calero is on the shelf until (at least) the end of May and it's not yet clear whether he'll have to be shut down and miss the whole season.
Harden appears nearly ready to return but the team are take an overly cautious approach and won't rush him back either.
All of which places Joe Blanton at the head of the rotation (at least until he joins the traded list) with Dana Eveland, Chad Gaudin and Greg Smith behind him. If Duchscherer or Harden haven't returned when the A's need a fifth starter thay'll likely look to swingman Lenny DiNardo.
Blanton and Gaudin are both good enough to keep things on an even keel for a short while until Harden and Duchscherer return, assuming it isn't too long. Eveland and especially Smith are rather shakier though.
Given Oakland's "rebuild" intent it's likely they'll take whatever they get though rather than rushing Harden back so these two kids - who both came over in the Haren deal - are going to have to step up earlier than expected.
Aside from missing Calero the bullpen is mostly intact with Huston Street and Alan Embree both returning at the back end.
The unretired Keith Foulke joins them along with youngsters Santiago Casilla, Andrew Brown, Joey Devine and Fernando Hernandez. DiNardo is also in the bullpen for now.
As a group they're pretty reasonable but not great (except Street) which on the whole sums up this team. A few good flashes but mostly fairly middle of the road, a road pitted with holes from injury.
If they can get healthy maybe they can take advantage of a weak division but it looks more like a year for some young guys to get experience and for Beane to see what he's got to work with.
Rough estimates for offense: 760 runs scored +/-38 and defense: 770 runs allowed +/-39.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 88-74
Medium: 80-82
Low: 72-90
Given the talent that has been traded away or injured anything around .500 will be pretty impressive but it will take a lot of luck to post a playoff record.
Next: Seattle Mariners
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Floyd to DL
Looks like we'll get a chance to see Justin Ruggiano in action for the Rays as Cliff Floyd has been placed on the DL and will have surgery on a torn meniscus tomorrow.
This shouldn't hurt Tampa at all though they could miss his "veteran leadership".
For tonight, at least, it looks like they'll move Gomes to DH and let Ruggiano play the field in right.
Floyd just might find it hard to get his job back after he rehabs from the surgery.
This shouldn't hurt Tampa at all though they could miss his "veteran leadership".
For tonight, at least, it looks like they'll move Gomes to DH and let Ruggiano play the field in right.
Floyd just might find it hard to get his job back after he rehabs from the surgery.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Ok, cracking on in hopes of finishing the "preview" before the season is a month old, let's take a look at the AL West, starting with the Angels.
Last year's division champions seem to be most people's favourites to repeat but injuries have already taken quite a toll.
Los Ang Anaheim won the Torii Hunter stakes and bring his reputation for defense and generally being super-clutch to their centerfield with Garret Anderson in left and Vladimir Guerrero back in right.
The move seemed somewhat strange given that Anaheim already had a glut of outfielders. Gary Matthews is pushed to the DH spot, though he'll see plenty of time in the field spelling all three regulars (especially Anderson).
Reggie Willits and Juan Rivera find themselves pushed a further spot down the depth chart but each keep a seat on the bench.
Vlad is still pretty much a beast, but the rest of that outfield is nothing special (though it is pretty much injury-proof!)
Defensively, Hunter's reputation has yet to decrease in line with his diminishing skills and he - along with Guerrero and Anderson - is not much more than average at his position now. The defense isn't horrible, but it doesn't really add anything either.
The infield offense is a little sub-par as well. Chone Figgins mans third with Maicer Izturis at short completing the left side and Howie Kendrick at second and Casey Kotchman at first handle the right.
All four guys are ok-ish, nothing special hitters with the possible exception of Kotchman who has a small chance of breaking out to be a decent 1B.
The right-side defense is excellent at least, though the left is somewhat confused. Figgins' worst position is third and given there's no room for him to provide a defensive presence in the outfield where he is best suited it seems odd that they wouldn't play him at short and Izturis at third rather than the other way around.
Figgins is also likely to run. A lot. With Orlando Cabrera moved on and decreased playing time for Willits he is by far the biggest stolen base threat and manager Mike Scioscia is a big believer in keeping pressure on opposing defenses through the running game. Given Figgins' usual success rate (~75% for his career) that's a small plus to the offense but one likely negated by having some of the slower guys occasionally pushed too far.
Mike Napoli rounds out the lineup at catcher with an ok bad and a suspect glove. His backup Jeff Mathis is no better defensively and just can't hit at the major league level yet and isn't really likely to at any point.
Aside from Mathis, Willits and Rivera the bench has Robb Quinlan to cover first (not to mention the outfield corners) and Erick Aybar for the middle infield.
Overall, this doesn't look on the surface like a division champion winning offense though the team was fourth in the AL in runs scored last year before Hunter arrived and with Shea Hillenbrand (no, really!) at DH.
The pitching staff starts off the year as a bigger worry with aces 1a and 1b: John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar each starting the season on the disabled list.
Lackey is almost ready to start pitching off a mound as he rehabs his strained triceps and could be back with the team by the start of May but no clear-cut timetable appears for Escobar (shoulder tear) yet. By the end of the month the team should have a clearer idea of when (and if) they should expect him back but it won't be soon.
In the meantime, Jered Weaver is bumped up to number one starter and offseason acquisition Jon Garland is number two. The pair of them should both be good enough to hold things together for a while but the Angels are clearly a lot better off when they can push them down and be four deep.
Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana and Dustin Moseley fill out the rest of the rotation for now with each essentially auditioning to keep a job once Lackey, and later Escobar come back.
Saunders is probably the better of the three though Santana's odd home/road splits (his career road ERA is over double that at home) are intriguing.
Francisco Rodriguez again anchors the bullpen with support from Scot Shields (just back from the DL), Justin Speier, Darren Oliver and Jason Bulger all of whom are decent arms and also Darren O'Day who had thrown just 91 professional innings (none above AA) prior to this season. O'Day has good stuff and can probably make the early transition to the Major Leagues having the luxury of sitting behind such a deep 'pen but he probably could use another year first.
For now "K-Rod" is still with the team but could well find himself placed on the DL as well depending on results from further tests on his ankle and has been unavailable for a couple of days now. If he doesn't return it it will severely weaken the bullpen as everyone moves up and with the top of the rotation already ailing the Angels need their bullpen to be as strong as possible.
Overall, this team is pretty hard to predict with such key players already known to be missing significant time and no certainty on when they'll return. The pitching staff needs Rodriguez and Lackey back as soon as possible and would really benefit from getting Escobar at some point.
Rough estimates for offense: 820 runs scored +/-41 and defense: 780 runs allowed +/-39.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 93-69
Medium: 85-77
Low: 77-85
A lot depends on how things shake out with their pitching staff but the Angels can be glad they play in the West because this team likely has no shot if it plays in the East or Central divisions.
Next up: Oakland
Last year's division champions seem to be most people's favourites to repeat but injuries have already taken quite a toll.
The move seemed somewhat strange given that Anaheim already had a glut of outfielders. Gary Matthews is pushed to the DH spot, though he'll see plenty of time in the field spelling all three regulars (especially Anderson).
Reggie Willits and Juan Rivera find themselves pushed a further spot down the depth chart but each keep a seat on the bench.
Vlad is still pretty much a beast, but the rest of that outfield is nothing special (though it is pretty much injury-proof!)
Defensively, Hunter's reputation has yet to decrease in line with his diminishing skills and he - along with Guerrero and Anderson - is not much more than average at his position now. The defense isn't horrible, but it doesn't really add anything either.
The infield offense is a little sub-par as well. Chone Figgins mans third with Maicer Izturis at short completing the left side and Howie Kendrick at second and Casey Kotchman at first handle the right.
All four guys are ok-ish, nothing special hitters with the possible exception of Kotchman who has a small chance of breaking out to be a decent 1B.
The right-side defense is excellent at least, though the left is somewhat confused. Figgins' worst position is third and given there's no room for him to provide a defensive presence in the outfield where he is best suited it seems odd that they wouldn't play him at short and Izturis at third rather than the other way around.
Figgins is also likely to run. A lot. With Orlando Cabrera moved on and decreased playing time for Willits he is by far the biggest stolen base threat and manager Mike Scioscia is a big believer in keeping pressure on opposing defenses through the running game. Given Figgins' usual success rate (~75% for his career) that's a small plus to the offense but one likely negated by having some of the slower guys occasionally pushed too far.
Mike Napoli rounds out the lineup at catcher with an ok bad and a suspect glove. His backup Jeff Mathis is no better defensively and just can't hit at the major league level yet and isn't really likely to at any point.
Aside from Mathis, Willits and Rivera the bench has Robb Quinlan to cover first (not to mention the outfield corners) and Erick Aybar for the middle infield.
Overall, this doesn't look on the surface like a division champion winning offense though the team was fourth in the AL in runs scored last year before Hunter arrived and with Shea Hillenbrand (no, really!) at DH.
The pitching staff starts off the year as a bigger worry with aces 1a and 1b: John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar each starting the season on the disabled list.
Lackey is almost ready to start pitching off a mound as he rehabs his strained triceps and could be back with the team by the start of May but no clear-cut timetable appears for Escobar (shoulder tear) yet. By the end of the month the team should have a clearer idea of when (and if) they should expect him back but it won't be soon.
In the meantime, Jered Weaver is bumped up to number one starter and offseason acquisition Jon Garland is number two. The pair of them should both be good enough to hold things together for a while but the Angels are clearly a lot better off when they can push them down and be four deep.
Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana and Dustin Moseley fill out the rest of the rotation for now with each essentially auditioning to keep a job once Lackey, and later Escobar come back.
Saunders is probably the better of the three though Santana's odd home/road splits (his career road ERA is over double that at home) are intriguing.
Francisco Rodriguez again anchors the bullpen with support from Scot Shields (just back from the DL), Justin Speier, Darren Oliver and Jason Bulger all of whom are decent arms and also Darren O'Day who had thrown just 91 professional innings (none above AA) prior to this season. O'Day has good stuff and can probably make the early transition to the Major Leagues having the luxury of sitting behind such a deep 'pen but he probably could use another year first.
For now "K-Rod" is still with the team but could well find himself placed on the DL as well depending on results from further tests on his ankle and has been unavailable for a couple of days now. If he doesn't return it it will severely weaken the bullpen as everyone moves up and with the top of the rotation already ailing the Angels need their bullpen to be as strong as possible.
Overall, this team is pretty hard to predict with such key players already known to be missing significant time and no certainty on when they'll return. The pitching staff needs Rodriguez and Lackey back as soon as possible and would really benefit from getting Escobar at some point.
Rough estimates for offense: 820 runs scored +/-41 and defense: 780 runs allowed +/-39.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 93-69
Medium: 85-77
Low: 77-85
A lot depends on how things shake out with their pitching staff but the Angels can be glad they play in the West because this team likely has no shot if it plays in the East or Central divisions.
Next up: Oakland
Sunday, April 06, 2008
AL East Predictions
First up the standings and how to split all those teams bunched together...
A 25-game turnaround for the Rays? Ahead of Boston and Toronto?
Well, yes. Toronto need everything to go right for them and they've already started the season with Rolen and Ryan out. They'll lose a lot of low-scoring games and at the end of the season it'll cost them.
Boston have Bartolo Colon for starting pitching depth but overall they suffer huge dropoffs when guys get injured or need a day off.
The Rays on the other hand have decent depth all around and are less likely to be derailed by a few bad knocks. throw in Evan Longoria and I think they can push the Yankees to the wire.
I was tempted to switch them and the Yankees for the division title as well, but cool as that would be I'd have to give the Yankees (marginally) better odds.
Baltimore, well, it's going to be a long season at Camden Yards.
AL East All-Star Team
C - Jorge Posada
1B - Carlos Peña
2B - Robinson Cano
3B - Alex Rodriguez
SS - Derek Jeter
LF - Carl Crawford
CF - B.J. Upton
RF - Nick Markakis
DH - David Ortiz
SP - Roy Halladay
SP - Dustin McGowan
SP - James Shields
SP - Josh Beckett
SP - Jesse Litsch
Bench
Jason Varitek
Manny Ramirez
Jason Giambi
Brian Roberts
Adam Jones
Bullpen
Jonathan Papelbon
Mariano Rivera
George Sherrill
Hideki Okajima
Manny Delcarmen
Joba Chamberlain
MVP?
Rodriguez
Cy?
Halladay
ROY?
As I mentioned before, I'd go with Adam Jones if he hadn't lost his eligibility by a few ABs last year and whilst I think Longoria probably should win it, I think the Rays will hold him back late enough that he has too much to do to catch up with...
Clay Buchholz
Next up: Moving on to the AL West, beginning with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| New York | 92 | 70 |
| Tampa Bay | 91 | 71 |
| Boston | 87 | 75 |
| Toronto | 84 | 78 |
| Baltimore | 69 | 93 |
A 25-game turnaround for the Rays? Ahead of Boston and Toronto?
Well, yes. Toronto need everything to go right for them and they've already started the season with Rolen and Ryan out. They'll lose a lot of low-scoring games and at the end of the season it'll cost them.
Boston have Bartolo Colon for starting pitching depth but overall they suffer huge dropoffs when guys get injured or need a day off.
The Rays on the other hand have decent depth all around and are less likely to be derailed by a few bad knocks. throw in Evan Longoria and I think they can push the Yankees to the wire.
I was tempted to switch them and the Yankees for the division title as well, but cool as that would be I'd have to give the Yankees (marginally) better odds.
Baltimore, well, it's going to be a long season at Camden Yards.
AL East All-Star Team
C - Jorge Posada
1B - Carlos Peña
2B - Robinson Cano
3B - Alex Rodriguez
SS - Derek Jeter
LF - Carl Crawford
CF - B.J. Upton
RF - Nick Markakis
DH - David Ortiz
SP - Roy Halladay
SP - Dustin McGowan
SP - James Shields
SP - Josh Beckett
SP - Jesse Litsch
Bench
Jason Varitek
Manny Ramirez
Jason Giambi
Brian Roberts
Adam Jones
Bullpen
Jonathan Papelbon
Mariano Rivera
George Sherrill
Hideki Okajima
Manny Delcarmen
Joba Chamberlain
MVP?
Rodriguez
Cy?
Halladay
ROY?
As I mentioned before, I'd go with Adam Jones if he hadn't lost his eligibility by a few ABs last year and whilst I think Longoria probably should win it, I think the Rays will hold him back late enough that he has too much to do to catch up with...
Clay Buchholz
Next up: Moving on to the AL West, beginning with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
Toronto Blue Jays
Last, but not least, in the AL East are the Toronto Blue Jays who have been regularly competitive but not quite enough to see the playoffs since their back-to-back World Series wins in '92 and '93.
Offensively the Blue Jays aren't particularly promising with rightfielder Alexis Rios - newly signed to an extension which will keep him north of the border until 2014 - as the only real plus offensive player.
Vernon Wells remains in centerfield after a dreadful 2007 and should bounce back. Most of his downturn last year was a huge spike in his infield fly rate and a sharp drop in HR per flyball, neither of which should be indicative of a change in talent level.
Matt Stairs and Shannon Stewart will platoon in leftfield though Steward has been getting all the starts so far due to a hip flexor injury to Stairs. It is likely Stairs will be placed on the DL for it though, since the move can be made retroactive to 23rd March, he would be eligible to come back from Tuesday anyway.
Lyle Overbay at first is another candidate for a bounceback from a horrible 2007 season. A large part of his poor season was a low average on balls in play (pretty much the reverse of his excellent 2006 season) and he should hope to find some middle ground this year.
Aaron Hill returns at second but with a new double play partner in David Eckstein at short.
Eckstein is a below average defender and hitter at short but bad as he is he is still a massive upgrade on offense over John McDonald who played there last year. Defensively though he's a big hit.
Along with Eckstein the Jays brought Scott Rolen on board, but with him out to injury (big surprise!) Marco Scutaro will see the bulk of the playing time for now until Rolen returns, probably towards the end of this month or early May.
Like Eckstein, Rolen has more name recognition than actual ability these days though he, at least, still has a decent glove - though nothing like he used to.
Gregg Zaun returns at catcher backed up by Rob Barajas and Frank Thomas will delay retirement for another year at DH.
The bench consists of Barajas, McDonald as a utility infield defensive replacement, rookie Buck Coats and whichever of Stewart and Stairs aren't starting.
Judged against their peers in the East this is a very weak lineup but, in truth, it's only a little below average for the league as a whole much of which is made up by the excellence of their defense (especially when McDonald subs in for Eckstein).
The strength of that defense may make a nice complement to their pitching staff as well.
Roy Halladay, of course, returns as the staff ace with A.J. Burnett hoping to staff healthy enough to give a great 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.
Dustin McGowan and Shawn Marcum fill the third and fourth spots now with a full season under their belts.
McGowan in particular has the promise of joining Halladay and Burnett in making the rotation extremely strong and deep whilst Marcum could but will probably simply be good in his first full year of starting after being used in both the bullpen and rotation last year.
Jesse Litsch as the fifth starter is also above average making this possibly the best rotation in the AL. The key will be getting enough innings from these guys but then the bullpen is reasonably deep in talent too.
B.J. Ryan will close (insert obligatory when healthy comment here), with Jeremy Accardo, Jason Frasor and Scott Downs sharing setup duty.
The Brians - Tallett and Wolfe - are joined in middle relief by Brandon League all of whom are respectable.
With Ryan still on the DL, Accardo has taken his spot as the closer and Randy Wells fills in in the bullpen for now but will likely be sent back to the minors once Ryan is reactivated, possibly as soon as next week.
If Ryan comes back and stays healthy and the young guns continue to progress this pitching staff is going to do very well, even against the powerhouse offenses in their division.
Rough estimates for offense: 770 runs scored +/-39 and defense: 710 runs allowed +/-36.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 96-66
Medium: 88-74
Low: 79-83
Hmm, so Toronto join Boston and Tampa with almost identical record projections (though in a very different way, especially from the Sox).
Next up: AL East predictions
Offensively the Blue Jays aren't particularly promising with rightfielder Alexis Rios - newly signed to an extension which will keep him north of the border until 2014 - as the only real plus offensive player.
Vernon Wells remains in centerfield after a dreadful 2007 and should bounce back. Most of his downturn last year was a huge spike in his infield fly rate and a sharp drop in HR per flyball, neither of which should be indicative of a change in talent level.
Matt Stairs and Shannon Stewart will platoon in leftfield though Steward has been getting all the starts so far due to a hip flexor injury to Stairs. It is likely Stairs will be placed on the DL for it though, since the move can be made retroactive to 23rd March, he would be eligible to come back from Tuesday anyway.
Lyle Overbay at first is another candidate for a bounceback from a horrible 2007 season. A large part of his poor season was a low average on balls in play (pretty much the reverse of his excellent 2006 season) and he should hope to find some middle ground this year.
Aaron Hill returns at second but with a new double play partner in David Eckstein at short.
Eckstein is a below average defender and hitter at short but bad as he is he is still a massive upgrade on offense over John McDonald who played there last year. Defensively though he's a big hit.
Along with Eckstein the Jays brought Scott Rolen on board, but with him out to injury (big surprise!) Marco Scutaro will see the bulk of the playing time for now until Rolen returns, probably towards the end of this month or early May.
Like Eckstein, Rolen has more name recognition than actual ability these days though he, at least, still has a decent glove - though nothing like he used to.
Gregg Zaun returns at catcher backed up by Rob Barajas and Frank Thomas will delay retirement for another year at DH.
The bench consists of Barajas, McDonald as a utility infield defensive replacement, rookie Buck Coats and whichever of Stewart and Stairs aren't starting.
Judged against their peers in the East this is a very weak lineup but, in truth, it's only a little below average for the league as a whole much of which is made up by the excellence of their defense (especially when McDonald subs in for Eckstein).
The strength of that defense may make a nice complement to their pitching staff as well.
Roy Halladay, of course, returns as the staff ace with A.J. Burnett hoping to staff healthy enough to give a great 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.
Dustin McGowan and Shawn Marcum fill the third and fourth spots now with a full season under their belts.
McGowan in particular has the promise of joining Halladay and Burnett in making the rotation extremely strong and deep whilst Marcum could but will probably simply be good in his first full year of starting after being used in both the bullpen and rotation last year.
Jesse Litsch as the fifth starter is also above average making this possibly the best rotation in the AL. The key will be getting enough innings from these guys but then the bullpen is reasonably deep in talent too.
B.J. Ryan will close (insert obligatory when healthy comment here), with Jeremy Accardo, Jason Frasor and Scott Downs sharing setup duty.
The Brians - Tallett and Wolfe - are joined in middle relief by Brandon League all of whom are respectable.
With Ryan still on the DL, Accardo has taken his spot as the closer and Randy Wells fills in in the bullpen for now but will likely be sent back to the minors once Ryan is reactivated, possibly as soon as next week.
If Ryan comes back and stays healthy and the young guns continue to progress this pitching staff is going to do very well, even against the powerhouse offenses in their division.
Rough estimates for offense: 770 runs scored +/-39 and defense: 710 runs allowed +/-36.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 96-66
Medium: 88-74
Low: 79-83
Hmm, so Toronto join Boston and Tampa with almost identical record projections (though in a very different way, especially from the Sox).
Next up: AL East predictions
Tampa Bay Rays
After ten years of futility (9 last places and a best season of 70-91 and 4th place) Tampa Bay are no longer the Devil Rays. They enter 2008 with a new name, a new logo and new sense of possibility.
Dioner Navarro returns at catcher (though has been placed on the DL with finger lacerations after slipping in the dugout yesterday). Shawn Riggans, his backup, should see some playing time in his absence, though Mike DiFelice has been called up from AAA as well. Navarro is still a fair way from being a force so the injury isn't likely to hurt the team to much in the short run.
Carlos Peña returns at first base and whilst he can't be expected to make another run at 50 HR he should still be a very decent bat in the heart of that lineup.
Akinori Iwamura should settle in as the regular second baseman with B.J. Upton being moved out to centerfield after splitting time there last year (with Iwamura at third the rest of the time). Iwamura's nothing special with the glove, especially at second but he's not the error-machine there that Upton was so it's a decent upgrade defensively that allowas them to kep both bats in the lineup.
Iwamura's battling line will look a little better as a regular second baseman than at third and Upton, still only 23, should build on a great year last.
Iwamura/Upton's double play partner from last year Brendan Harris was sent to Minnesota in the Matt Garza deal so Jason Bartlett (acquired as part of that same trade) will take over at short. There's not a whole lot of difference between Harris and Bartlett with the bat, both pretty much league average for shortstops, but Bartlett is better defensively at short (whereas Harris was a better third and second baseman).
After an interesting off-season that saw him traded from the Braves, in legal trouble at home in the Dominican Republic and battling hamstring issues through spring, Willy Aybar holds down third base...for now.
The season doesn't figure to be any less interesting though it might not end as well for him with uber-prospect Evan Longoria waiting in the wings.
Longoria has been sent down to AAA Durham purely to keep his service time clock on hold in a move that should keep him in a Rays uniform just a little bit longer and save them a few million dollars.
In the meantime Aybar, who hit like a (weak-hitting) shortstop takes his spot at the hot corner in what feels like a pre-season white flag from the Rays. This lineup will improve greatly once Aybar becomes a utility infield bench player as Longoria plays every day.
Carl Crawford at left and Jonny Gomes in right flank Upton in the outfield and both bring big bats. Gomes' glovework is less inspiring whilst Crawford is one of the best left-fielders in the game.
Nathan Haynes - recently claimed off waivers from the Angels - and Eric Hinske have filled in at right in the early going with Gomes serving his one-game suspension.
Veteran Cliff Floyd will be the team's DH and should be an upgrade over Greg Norton and Delmon Young who he effectively replaces.
Young and Elijah Dukes are both gone, to Minnesota and Washington respectively, as the Rays ran out of patience waiting for their talent to exceed their troublemaking. their new clubs will give them a shot but the Rays have enough depth to move on without them.
The rest of the bench consists of Eliot Johnston, who can play pretty much anywhere and figures to see most of his time as a defensive sub, and Joel Guzman.
Aside from Longoria, the Rays have other weapons waiting in Triple-A in the form of outfielder Justin Ruggiano, who has nothing left to prove in Durham and should be up at the first opportunity, and shortstop Reid Brignac who is only just getting his first taste of AAA action but could well be knocking on the door before this year is out.
The pitching staff has been a perennial weakness for the Rays (then again, what hasn't?) with a 5.53 ERA last year but looks to be much improved.
With Garza coming over to join Jamie Shields and Scott Kazmir at the head of the rotation they have three high quality arms.
Kazmir has opened the season on the disabled list giving Jason Hammel a brief opportunity but is expected back by the end of April.
Andrew Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson return in the other two rotation spots needing to improve on dreadful 2007 campaigns.
I think both will improve a little but Sonnanstine is more likely to make large strides forward. If he can come anywhere close to league average he could eat a lot of innings and take the pressure of the bullpen.
In relief the club has venerable Troy Percival as its closer backed by a fairly experienced crew of Al Reyes (last year's closer), Dan Wheeler, Gary Glover, Trever Miller, Scott Dohmann and J.P. Howell.
That is, for the most part, what they trotted out last year in middle relief and the less innings they need to pitch the better this club will be.
The Rays have depth for their rotation waiting in AAA as well with Jeff Niemann and southpaw David Price likely to be called up if Jackson, Hammel or even Sonnanstine struggle too badly.
The offense is good if not as great as some of their divisional rivals and the rotation has the potential to be excellent if everything goes right. Greater depth than just about any other team should help stop them from collapsing with a couple of injuries here and there and the mid-season callups of the likes of Longoria mean this team is finally ready to be competitive.
Rough estimates for offense: 830 runs scored +/-42 and defense: 760 runs allowed +/-38.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 96-66
Medium: 88-74
Low: 80-82
The depth of the Rays should allow them to avoid replacement level innings from the bullpen and should make them less likely to see the low end of their projection. We'll see.
Next up: The Toronto Blue Jays then an AL East round up
Dioner Navarro returns at catcher (though has been placed on the DL with finger lacerations after slipping in the dugout yesterday). Shawn Riggans, his backup, should see some playing time in his absence, though Mike DiFelice has been called up from AAA as well. Navarro is still a fair way from being a force so the injury isn't likely to hurt the team to much in the short run.
Carlos Peña returns at first base and whilst he can't be expected to make another run at 50 HR he should still be a very decent bat in the heart of that lineup.
Akinori Iwamura should settle in as the regular second baseman with B.J. Upton being moved out to centerfield after splitting time there last year (with Iwamura at third the rest of the time). Iwamura's nothing special with the glove, especially at second but he's not the error-machine there that Upton was so it's a decent upgrade defensively that allowas them to kep both bats in the lineup.
Iwamura's battling line will look a little better as a regular second baseman than at third and Upton, still only 23, should build on a great year last.
Iwamura/Upton's double play partner from last year Brendan Harris was sent to Minnesota in the Matt Garza deal so Jason Bartlett (acquired as part of that same trade) will take over at short. There's not a whole lot of difference between Harris and Bartlett with the bat, both pretty much league average for shortstops, but Bartlett is better defensively at short (whereas Harris was a better third and second baseman).
After an interesting off-season that saw him traded from the Braves, in legal trouble at home in the Dominican Republic and battling hamstring issues through spring, Willy Aybar holds down third base...for now.
The season doesn't figure to be any less interesting though it might not end as well for him with uber-prospect Evan Longoria waiting in the wings.
Longoria has been sent down to AAA Durham purely to keep his service time clock on hold in a move that should keep him in a Rays uniform just a little bit longer and save them a few million dollars.
In the meantime Aybar, who hit like a (weak-hitting) shortstop takes his spot at the hot corner in what feels like a pre-season white flag from the Rays. This lineup will improve greatly once Aybar becomes a utility infield bench player as Longoria plays every day.
Carl Crawford at left and Jonny Gomes in right flank Upton in the outfield and both bring big bats. Gomes' glovework is less inspiring whilst Crawford is one of the best left-fielders in the game.
Nathan Haynes - recently claimed off waivers from the Angels - and Eric Hinske have filled in at right in the early going with Gomes serving his one-game suspension.
Veteran Cliff Floyd will be the team's DH and should be an upgrade over Greg Norton and Delmon Young who he effectively replaces.
Young and Elijah Dukes are both gone, to Minnesota and Washington respectively, as the Rays ran out of patience waiting for their talent to exceed their troublemaking. their new clubs will give them a shot but the Rays have enough depth to move on without them.
The rest of the bench consists of Eliot Johnston, who can play pretty much anywhere and figures to see most of his time as a defensive sub, and Joel Guzman.
Aside from Longoria, the Rays have other weapons waiting in Triple-A in the form of outfielder Justin Ruggiano, who has nothing left to prove in Durham and should be up at the first opportunity, and shortstop Reid Brignac who is only just getting his first taste of AAA action but could well be knocking on the door before this year is out.
The pitching staff has been a perennial weakness for the Rays (then again, what hasn't?) with a 5.53 ERA last year but looks to be much improved.
With Garza coming over to join Jamie Shields and Scott Kazmir at the head of the rotation they have three high quality arms.
Kazmir has opened the season on the disabled list giving Jason Hammel a brief opportunity but is expected back by the end of April.
Andrew Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson return in the other two rotation spots needing to improve on dreadful 2007 campaigns.
I think both will improve a little but Sonnanstine is more likely to make large strides forward. If he can come anywhere close to league average he could eat a lot of innings and take the pressure of the bullpen.
In relief the club has venerable Troy Percival as its closer backed by a fairly experienced crew of Al Reyes (last year's closer), Dan Wheeler, Gary Glover, Trever Miller, Scott Dohmann and J.P. Howell.
That is, for the most part, what they trotted out last year in middle relief and the less innings they need to pitch the better this club will be.
The Rays have depth for their rotation waiting in AAA as well with Jeff Niemann and southpaw David Price likely to be called up if Jackson, Hammel or even Sonnanstine struggle too badly.
The offense is good if not as great as some of their divisional rivals and the rotation has the potential to be excellent if everything goes right. Greater depth than just about any other team should help stop them from collapsing with a couple of injuries here and there and the mid-season callups of the likes of Longoria mean this team is finally ready to be competitive.
Rough estimates for offense: 830 runs scored +/-42 and defense: 760 runs allowed +/-38.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 96-66
Medium: 88-74
Low: 80-82
The depth of the Rays should allow them to avoid replacement level innings from the bullpen and should make them less likely to see the low end of their projection. We'll see.
Next up: The Toronto Blue Jays then an AL East round up
Saturday, April 05, 2008
New York Yankees
After 10 straight AL East titles, the Yankees finally had to settle for making their 15th consecutive playoffs via the wildcard last year.Can they recapture the division or are they on the way down?
As with the Red Sox, the Yankees return pretty much the same lineup as last year.
Melky Cabrera starts in centerfield and should build off last year whilst flanked by the more experienced Hideki Matsui and Bobby Abreu in left and right respectively. Johnny Damon should split time with Matsui a fair bit with whichever one is not playing the field filling the DH role.
All three are good to very good hitters though Cabrera will have his glovework cut out covering all the extra room left by the others in the outfield.
The infield is also the same as 2007 with Jorge Posada behind the plate as ever, Alex Rodriguez at third, Derek Jeter at short, Robinson Cano at second and Jason Giambi at first.
As well as combining to cost the GNP of several nations they are all well above average offensively though only Cano is decent in the field. Rodriguez is a pretty average third baseman which puts him light years ahead of the other three defensively.
Combined they should give pitchers from their opponents and their own staff nightmares.
Jose Molina will backup Posada for days where Jorge needs a breather and the Yankees need a no-hit, no-glove catcher.
Shelley Duncan, Wilson Betemit and Morgan Ensberg fill out the bench but aren't likely to see significant playing time without any injuries.
Still, the run production looks good but given the question marks about the pitching the atrocious defense could just magnify a few things.
Chien-Ming Wang heads a fairly weak rotation and hopes to duplicate his 2007 season but without a great deal of likelihood of success. His decent ERA spoke a lot to the good fortune in flyballs landing the right side of the wall which isn't likely to be sustainable and as a fairly extreme groundball pitcher the defense will hurt him quite a bit.
Mike Mussina is the second starter after a horrendous 2007. He was unfortunate last year with a dreadful strand rate which should right itself somewhat but his age lokos to have caught up with him too so he won't look much better than he was.
The young guys Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy will get to be regular starters for the first time with a lot of expectation, hype and hope resting on them. Both will probably end up as decent major leaguers (with Hughes the better of the two) in the end but they should suffer some nasty growing pains this year.
Andy Pettitte is slotted in currently on the DL but should round out the rotation. He should be a fairly reliable starter though he too had a lucky HR per flyball rate and is due to regress (and age!) He's expected to be activated to make his scheduled start tomorrow.
Mariano Rivera, of course, returns as closer and all eyes will be on young Joba Chamberlain after his dazzling late-season callup last year.
Chamberlain is in limbo at the moment as he's projected to join the rotation eventually but his immediate utility in the bullpen combined with a need for a transition plan for Rivera's eventual departure may keep him in the 'pen.
The rest of the relief corps is made up of Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins, Brian Bruney, Ross Ohlendorf and Jonathan Albaladejo for the time being, none of whom inspire any particular confidence.
It's possible one of them will be sent down to the minors to clear a roster spot for Pettitte tomorrow though it's more likely the Yankees will shorten the bench and send down Ensberg or Duncan instead.
The pitching staff isn't really horrible, but it doesn't have much strength beyond the last two guys in the bullpen so the offense is going to have to work hard. Still, they have the right offense for that.
Rough estimates for offense: 920 runs scored +/-46 and defense: 790 runs allowed +/-40.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 101-61
Medium: 93-69
Low: 85-77
The power of the lineup should compensate the mediocrity of the pitching staff which can at least hold its own. On the other hand, for a team with this much money spent there's precious little real depth.
Next: Tampa Bay
As with the Red Sox, the Yankees return pretty much the same lineup as last year.
Melky Cabrera starts in centerfield and should build off last year whilst flanked by the more experienced Hideki Matsui and Bobby Abreu in left and right respectively. Johnny Damon should split time with Matsui a fair bit with whichever one is not playing the field filling the DH role.
All three are good to very good hitters though Cabrera will have his glovework cut out covering all the extra room left by the others in the outfield.
The infield is also the same as 2007 with Jorge Posada behind the plate as ever, Alex Rodriguez at third, Derek Jeter at short, Robinson Cano at second and Jason Giambi at first.
As well as combining to cost the GNP of several nations they are all well above average offensively though only Cano is decent in the field. Rodriguez is a pretty average third baseman which puts him light years ahead of the other three defensively.
Combined they should give pitchers from their opponents and their own staff nightmares.
Jose Molina will backup Posada for days where Jorge needs a breather and the Yankees need a no-hit, no-glove catcher.
Shelley Duncan, Wilson Betemit and Morgan Ensberg fill out the bench but aren't likely to see significant playing time without any injuries.
Still, the run production looks good but given the question marks about the pitching the atrocious defense could just magnify a few things.
Chien-Ming Wang heads a fairly weak rotation and hopes to duplicate his 2007 season but without a great deal of likelihood of success. His decent ERA spoke a lot to the good fortune in flyballs landing the right side of the wall which isn't likely to be sustainable and as a fairly extreme groundball pitcher the defense will hurt him quite a bit.
Mike Mussina is the second starter after a horrendous 2007. He was unfortunate last year with a dreadful strand rate which should right itself somewhat but his age lokos to have caught up with him too so he won't look much better than he was.
The young guys Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy will get to be regular starters for the first time with a lot of expectation, hype and hope resting on them. Both will probably end up as decent major leaguers (with Hughes the better of the two) in the end but they should suffer some nasty growing pains this year.
Andy Pettitte is slotted in currently on the DL but should round out the rotation. He should be a fairly reliable starter though he too had a lucky HR per flyball rate and is due to regress (and age!) He's expected to be activated to make his scheduled start tomorrow.
Mariano Rivera, of course, returns as closer and all eyes will be on young Joba Chamberlain after his dazzling late-season callup last year.
Chamberlain is in limbo at the moment as he's projected to join the rotation eventually but his immediate utility in the bullpen combined with a need for a transition plan for Rivera's eventual departure may keep him in the 'pen.
The rest of the relief corps is made up of Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins, Brian Bruney, Ross Ohlendorf and Jonathan Albaladejo for the time being, none of whom inspire any particular confidence.
It's possible one of them will be sent down to the minors to clear a roster spot for Pettitte tomorrow though it's more likely the Yankees will shorten the bench and send down Ensberg or Duncan instead.
The pitching staff isn't really horrible, but it doesn't have much strength beyond the last two guys in the bullpen so the offense is going to have to work hard. Still, they have the right offense for that.
Rough estimates for offense: 920 runs scored +/-46 and defense: 790 runs allowed +/-40.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 101-61
Medium: 93-69
Low: 85-77
The power of the lineup should compensate the mediocrity of the pitching staff which can at least hold its own. On the other hand, for a team with this much money spent there's precious little real depth.
Next: Tampa Bay
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox return almost all of last year's World Series team so it's easy to see why they have a lot of high expectations.
Jason Varitek returns at catcher and remains one of the best hitters at his position, easily enough to make up for his less than stellar defensive capabilities.
Those defensive capabilities are greater than David Ortiz', of course, since he has none but he doesn't need them to continue to mash balls and scare pitchers from the DH spot.
Mike Lowell remains at third base and is probably the biggest candidate for a huge decline whilst Kevin Youkilis should remain solid at bat and in the field at first.
The middle infeld duo of Julio Lugo and Dustin Pedroia also returns and looks like the biggest hole in the lineup by a mile.
Oddly, neither player is particularly talented with the glove for their positions but will keep getting trotted out there.
Lugo, in particular is something of an offensive black hole - yes, he sucks - perhaps not as much as he showed last year when he was bitten with more than his share of bad luck on balls landing in gloves but he's still not a good hitter.
Pedroia, on the other hand, enjoyed a lot of good luck with his BABIP making his stats look respectable in 2007 but unless he has some surprising breakthrough he'll likely regress towards Lugo.
The outfield returns the incomparable (in many ways) Manny Ramirez, who stacks up with Ortiz to form probably the best 1-2 punch in any lineup at the moment, in leftfield and J.D. Drew opposite him in right.
Drew's already managed to miss time with an injury to nobody's surprise and it's likely that his numbers go down as years of playing cards whilst on the DL takes its toll on his baseball skills.
The only change the the starting lineup is Jacoby Ellsbury in centerfield taking over from Coco Crisp who immediately becomes the best fourth outfielder in the game whilst moonlighting as high-priced trade bait when he's not subbing for Drew's incapacities.
Ellsbury's a hot prospect but his short stint last season has over-rated him early. Last year's numbers are mostly a combination of small sample size and a freakishly lucky BABIP (Three-eighty-fricking-eight!) but he's only 24 and still improving. He'll be good, just not as much as the media would like us to think.
Aside from Crisp the other big news in players losing their spots was on the bench where Doug Mirabelli has been replaced by Kevin Cash as 'Varitek's backup. This was something of a surprise given that Mirabelli served as personal catcher to the team's knuckleballer, Tim Wakefield, but should have any huge effect offensively.
Veterans Sean Casey and Alex Cora round out the bench which looks pretty weak after accounting for Crisp spending most of his time starting in place of Drew or being traded away.
The hitting's pretty damn good, but perhaps a touch over-rated now and the defense sure looks horrible. Crisp is one of the best defensive centerfielders in the game but beyond that it's mediocre to awful unless Ellsbury gets moved to a corner (like when Drew's injured and Crisp comes in at center!)
The pitching could be a worry for the defending champs as well.
Due to the odd scheduling and roster rules surrounding their trip to Japan to open the season they are currently holding only four starters on the roster: Daisuke Matsuzaka who started the opener should be solid but not spectacular and the remainder of the rotation is a bunch of question marks.
Jon Lester continues his comeback from lymphoma but the warm fuzziness from that storyline has pretty much been allowed to obscure the fact that he's pretty much a league average pitcher.
Tim Wakefield is as unpredictable as a knuckler should be and assuming the loss of Mirabelli doesn't mean a thousand unearned runs on passed balls should be about average in the long run (with with a whole lot more deviation).
23-year old Clay Buchholz is the prize of the staff and also over-hyped after his no-hitter last year in just his second Major League start. Still, all the signs are that he'll be a pretty good pitcher in the long run but the Sox really need him to put it together right now.
The staff ace Josh Beckett is sitting on the DL right now with back spasms but should be activated in time to start Sunday's game restoring the rotation to five. Everything nice I can say about Beckett needs to be prefaced with "if healthy,..." (though in fairness he's logged over 200 innings each of the last two years for Boston. It's also worth noting that his walk rate plummeted last year and he's a reasonable candidate for a regression. Still, as the hero of two World Series now, they're going to be very glad to have him back this weekend.
Curt Schilling also waits on the disabled list but it is as yet unclear whether he will pitch at all this season.
Jonathan Papelbon remains the go-to guy as closer with the excellent setup tandem of Hideki Okajima and Manny Delcarmen giving the 8th inning a left-right punch.
With only four starters currently on the roster the bullpen goes very deep with Javier Lopez, Kyle Snyder, Julian Tavarez, David Aardsma and Bryan Corey rounding out the roster.
Lopez, Aardsma and Corey are all on the bubble though. One will be sent down to Pawtacket to make room for Beckett when he's activated paring the bullpen down to a more sensible size and another will go when veteran veteran reliever Mike Timlin is re-activated from the DL (finger laceration) probably next weekend.
In truth, Tavarez and Snyder would probably be better candidates for demotion based on ability alone but even they are pretty decent giving a lot of depth to Boston's relief corps. Unfortunately, there's a decent chance they may need it.
Rough estimates for offense: 830 runs scored +/-42 and defense: 760 runs allowed +/-38.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 96-66
Medium: 88-74
Low: 80-82
Everybody returning, but will it lead to a return to the World Series...?
Up next: New York Yankees
Jason Varitek returns at catcher and remains one of the best hitters at his position, easily enough to make up for his less than stellar defensive capabilities.
Those defensive capabilities are greater than David Ortiz', of course, since he has none but he doesn't need them to continue to mash balls and scare pitchers from the DH spot.
Mike Lowell remains at third base and is probably the biggest candidate for a huge decline whilst Kevin Youkilis should remain solid at bat and in the field at first.
The middle infeld duo of Julio Lugo and Dustin Pedroia also returns and looks like the biggest hole in the lineup by a mile.
Oddly, neither player is particularly talented with the glove for their positions but will keep getting trotted out there.
Lugo, in particular is something of an offensive black hole - yes, he sucks - perhaps not as much as he showed last year when he was bitten with more than his share of bad luck on balls landing in gloves but he's still not a good hitter.
Pedroia, on the other hand, enjoyed a lot of good luck with his BABIP making his stats look respectable in 2007 but unless he has some surprising breakthrough he'll likely regress towards Lugo.
The outfield returns the incomparable (in many ways) Manny Ramirez, who stacks up with Ortiz to form probably the best 1-2 punch in any lineup at the moment, in leftfield and J.D. Drew opposite him in right.
Drew's already managed to miss time with an injury to nobody's surprise and it's likely that his numbers go down as years of playing cards whilst on the DL takes its toll on his baseball skills.
The only change the the starting lineup is Jacoby Ellsbury in centerfield taking over from Coco Crisp who immediately becomes the best fourth outfielder in the game whilst moonlighting as high-priced trade bait when he's not subbing for Drew's incapacities.
Ellsbury's a hot prospect but his short stint last season has over-rated him early. Last year's numbers are mostly a combination of small sample size and a freakishly lucky BABIP (Three-eighty-fricking-eight!) but he's only 24 and still improving. He'll be good, just not as much as the media would like us to think.
Aside from Crisp the other big news in players losing their spots was on the bench where Doug Mirabelli has been replaced by Kevin Cash as 'Varitek's backup. This was something of a surprise given that Mirabelli served as personal catcher to the team's knuckleballer, Tim Wakefield, but should have any huge effect offensively.
Veterans Sean Casey and Alex Cora round out the bench which looks pretty weak after accounting for Crisp spending most of his time starting in place of Drew or being traded away.
The hitting's pretty damn good, but perhaps a touch over-rated now and the defense sure looks horrible. Crisp is one of the best defensive centerfielders in the game but beyond that it's mediocre to awful unless Ellsbury gets moved to a corner (like when Drew's injured and Crisp comes in at center!)
The pitching could be a worry for the defending champs as well.
Due to the odd scheduling and roster rules surrounding their trip to Japan to open the season they are currently holding only four starters on the roster: Daisuke Matsuzaka who started the opener should be solid but not spectacular and the remainder of the rotation is a bunch of question marks.
Jon Lester continues his comeback from lymphoma but the warm fuzziness from that storyline has pretty much been allowed to obscure the fact that he's pretty much a league average pitcher.
Tim Wakefield is as unpredictable as a knuckler should be and assuming the loss of Mirabelli doesn't mean a thousand unearned runs on passed balls should be about average in the long run (with with a whole lot more deviation).
23-year old Clay Buchholz is the prize of the staff and also over-hyped after his no-hitter last year in just his second Major League start. Still, all the signs are that he'll be a pretty good pitcher in the long run but the Sox really need him to put it together right now.
The staff ace Josh Beckett is sitting on the DL right now with back spasms but should be activated in time to start Sunday's game restoring the rotation to five. Everything nice I can say about Beckett needs to be prefaced with "if healthy,..." (though in fairness he's logged over 200 innings each of the last two years for Boston. It's also worth noting that his walk rate plummeted last year and he's a reasonable candidate for a regression. Still, as the hero of two World Series now, they're going to be very glad to have him back this weekend.
Curt Schilling also waits on the disabled list but it is as yet unclear whether he will pitch at all this season.
Jonathan Papelbon remains the go-to guy as closer with the excellent setup tandem of Hideki Okajima and Manny Delcarmen giving the 8th inning a left-right punch.
With only four starters currently on the roster the bullpen goes very deep with Javier Lopez, Kyle Snyder, Julian Tavarez, David Aardsma and Bryan Corey rounding out the roster.
Lopez, Aardsma and Corey are all on the bubble though. One will be sent down to Pawtacket to make room for Beckett when he's activated paring the bullpen down to a more sensible size and another will go when veteran veteran reliever Mike Timlin is re-activated from the DL (finger laceration) probably next weekend.
In truth, Tavarez and Snyder would probably be better candidates for demotion based on ability alone but even they are pretty decent giving a lot of depth to Boston's relief corps. Unfortunately, there's a decent chance they may need it.
Rough estimates for offense: 830 runs scored +/-42 and defense: 760 runs allowed +/-38.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 96-66
Medium: 88-74
Low: 80-82
Everybody returning, but will it lead to a return to the World Series...?
Up next: New York Yankees
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Baltimore Orioles
Skipping over Opening Day for the moment since I want to finish the 30 teams before the season ends, it's on to the Orioles.
The forgotten team in the AL East behind the powerhouses of the Yankees and the Red Sox and the chic picks of the Blue Jays and Rays, what does Baltimore offer its success-starved fans who haven't since a winning season since 1997?
The Orioles are pretty much split up into a veteran infield and youth-filled outfield with Ramon Hernandez returning at catch, Kevan Millar remaining first base and Melvin Mora still manning the hot corner. Hernandez is the only one of the three closer to being league average with the others a fair tick below.
Brian Roberts also remains at second base... for now. Easily the best player in their infield he's almost certainly not staying much longer as it seems likely he (and the $14.3m he's owed over the next two years) will be heading to chicago sooner rather than later.
Switch-missing Luis Hernandez comes up after a year spent mostly in Double-A Bowie to represent the club's future at shortstop in the wake of the Miguel Tejada era. He's unlikely to fill Tejada's boots (or B12 syringe) any time soon but need presses him into everyday duty.
The youngsters filling the outfield represent much more strongly the club's potential future with Nick Markakis returning in right alongside Adam Jones - acquired (stolen?) from the Mariners in the Erik Bedard trade - and Luke Scott who came over from Houston as part of the Tejada deal.
Jones is absolutely ready for his shot and should prove a big hit with his bat and glove both of which are only going to get better over the next several years. This year should see him miss out on the Rookie of the Year award purely based on 9AB too many last year.
Luke Scott's been around a while but this will probably be his first season as a full-time starter all year. He's got the least potential of the outfield crew but should be a dependable good leftfield presence.
Markakis enters his third season as a veteran 24-year old and the team's best hitter. Jones may surpass him there and may do already with fielding ability included but right now he's the heart of this lineup.
At DH, experienced mediocrity reigns with the return of Aubrey Huff whose batting line would read pretty well if he could still play a passable third. (Not that I'm saying he ever played a passable third.)
Jay Payton, a starter last year, are relegated to the bench though he figures to see his share of plate appearances especially filling in for Scott, possibly in a full left-right platoon.
Guillermo Quiroz is a good defensive catcher to back up Hernandez and Scott Moore can cover all four corner positions.
Brandon Fahey rounds out the bench covering the middle infield positions though, given that he lost out on starting at short to poor-fielding, no-hitting Luis Hernandez it's fair to say depth around the cornerstone is not an Orioles' strength.
On the mound, four of last year's five main starters return: Daniel Cabrera, Steve Trachsel, Brian Burres and Opening Day starter Jeremy Guthrie. But not Bedard.
Guthrie's numbers last year looked great superficially but there's plenty of scar tissue underneath, cabrera and Burres are both medium to poor and Trachsel's a train wreck at this stage of his career.
Adam Loewen joins the rotation full-time this year after a brief (and moderately impressive) callup last season and is almost certainly the best starter (i.e. better than average) on the team.
Given that it's likely none of them logs a ton of innings this year they should put a heavy strain on their bullpen.
George Sherrill, another piece of the Bedard deal (not even mentioning the three minor league prospects Baltimore got), should fit in well as the closer. He won't get a lot of ESPN time, especially playing for the Orioles, but he's one of the game's top bullpen arms.
Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker are usually dependable for small numbers of quality innings and Greg Aquino should be passable too.
The rest of the bullpen comprises Randor Bierd, Dennis Sarfate and Matt Albers who should team up for an antacid commercial in Charm City.
Aside from putting out fires with gasoline they'll likely find themselves part of a revolving door of candidates to make the sixth and seventh inning a visiting team's dream.
Starting the year on the DL, Chris Ray and Danys Baez probably offer the best hope for mediocrity to salve the wounded middle relief.
Rough estimates for offense: 750 runs scored +/-38 and defense: 850 runs allowed +/-43.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 79-83
Medium: 71-91
Low: 63-99
The young guys coming up don't make up for an extra year of wear on the veterans and having Luis Hernandez in Tejada's place.
The starters struggles will mean too much of the bullpen and the numbers come out almost exactly like last year's team.
For Baltimore's sake, there's a decent chance this is transition as Jones gets himself established and Luis Hernandez is forced to learn very quickly and they can build on this as the Huff's and Mora's fade into history.
Next up: The defending champs - Boston
The forgotten team in the AL East behind the powerhouses of the Yankees and the Red Sox and the chic picks of the Blue Jays and Rays, what does Baltimore offer its success-starved fans who haven't since a winning season since 1997?
The Orioles are pretty much split up into a veteran infield and youth-filled outfield with Ramon Hernandez returning at catch, Kevan Millar remaining first base and Melvin Mora still manning the hot corner. Hernandez is the only one of the three closer to being league average with the others a fair tick below.
Brian Roberts also remains at second base... for now. Easily the best player in their infield he's almost certainly not staying much longer as it seems likely he (and the $14.3m he's owed over the next two years) will be heading to chicago sooner rather than later.
Switch-missing Luis Hernandez comes up after a year spent mostly in Double-A Bowie to represent the club's future at shortstop in the wake of the Miguel Tejada era. He's unlikely to fill Tejada's boots (or B12 syringe) any time soon but need presses him into everyday duty.
The youngsters filling the outfield represent much more strongly the club's potential future with Nick Markakis returning in right alongside Adam Jones - acquired (stolen?) from the Mariners in the Erik Bedard trade - and Luke Scott who came over from Houston as part of the Tejada deal.
Jones is absolutely ready for his shot and should prove a big hit with his bat and glove both of which are only going to get better over the next several years. This year should see him miss out on the Rookie of the Year award purely based on 9AB too many last year.
Luke Scott's been around a while but this will probably be his first season as a full-time starter all year. He's got the least potential of the outfield crew but should be a dependable good leftfield presence.
Markakis enters his third season as a veteran 24-year old and the team's best hitter. Jones may surpass him there and may do already with fielding ability included but right now he's the heart of this lineup.
At DH, experienced mediocrity reigns with the return of Aubrey Huff whose batting line would read pretty well if he could still play a passable third. (Not that I'm saying he ever played a passable third.)
Jay Payton, a starter last year, are relegated to the bench though he figures to see his share of plate appearances especially filling in for Scott, possibly in a full left-right platoon.
Guillermo Quiroz is a good defensive catcher to back up Hernandez and Scott Moore can cover all four corner positions.
Brandon Fahey rounds out the bench covering the middle infield positions though, given that he lost out on starting at short to poor-fielding, no-hitting Luis Hernandez it's fair to say depth around the cornerstone is not an Orioles' strength.
On the mound, four of last year's five main starters return: Daniel Cabrera, Steve Trachsel, Brian Burres and Opening Day starter Jeremy Guthrie. But not Bedard.
Guthrie's numbers last year looked great superficially but there's plenty of scar tissue underneath, cabrera and Burres are both medium to poor and Trachsel's a train wreck at this stage of his career.
Adam Loewen joins the rotation full-time this year after a brief (and moderately impressive) callup last season and is almost certainly the best starter (i.e. better than average) on the team.
Given that it's likely none of them logs a ton of innings this year they should put a heavy strain on their bullpen.
George Sherrill, another piece of the Bedard deal (not even mentioning the three minor league prospects Baltimore got), should fit in well as the closer. He won't get a lot of ESPN time, especially playing for the Orioles, but he's one of the game's top bullpen arms.
Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker are usually dependable for small numbers of quality innings and Greg Aquino should be passable too.
The rest of the bullpen comprises Randor Bierd, Dennis Sarfate and Matt Albers who should team up for an antacid commercial in Charm City.
Aside from putting out fires with gasoline they'll likely find themselves part of a revolving door of candidates to make the sixth and seventh inning a visiting team's dream.
Starting the year on the DL, Chris Ray and Danys Baez probably offer the best hope for mediocrity to salve the wounded middle relief.
Rough estimates for offense: 750 runs scored +/-38 and defense: 850 runs allowed +/-43.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 79-83
Medium: 71-91
Low: 63-99
The young guys coming up don't make up for an extra year of wear on the veterans and having Luis Hernandez in Tejada's place.
The starters struggles will mean too much of the bullpen and the numbers come out almost exactly like last year's team.
For Baltimore's sake, there's a decent chance this is transition as Jones gets himself established and Luis Hernandez is forced to learn very quickly and they can build on this as the Huff's and Mora's fade into history.
Next up: The defending champs - Boston
Monday, March 31, 2008
Did I say hope for the Royals?
Uh-oh. Opening Day and David DeJesus is the first in-season casualty.
No details yet on the severity but some kind of ankle injury has taken him out of the opener to be replaced until further notice by... Joey Gathright.
Hey, at least it's not raining there.
No details yet on the severity but some kind of ankle injury has taken him out of the opener to be replaced until further notice by... Joey Gathright.
Hey, at least it's not raining there.
AL Central Predictions
Ok, so we've been through all the teams, but where will they all finish?
The Cleveland projection seemed a little high so I've come down on the low side and Detroit's a little low, but even after adjusting for that, you'll see I don't even have this being a particularly close race.
Detroit may be getting all the press for their big acquisitions, but the stand-pat Indians look like the class of the division to me.
Kansas haven't finished as high as 3rd since 2003, their last winning season but I'm buying into a dose of hope for the poor Royals.
77 wins for the Twins is probably about what is expected after their fire sale, it's next year and beyond that matters in the Twin Cities.
The White Sox just look plain bad. It's hard to believe that these guys won the Series in 2005 and with much of the same roster, but then, that essentially has been their problem. Regression and aging have been ignorred or scoffed at and I can't see this year being any kinder than the last to the Pale Hose.
AL Central All-Star Team
C - Joe Mauer
1B - Justin Morneau
2B - Placido Polanco
3B - Miguel Cabrera
SS - Jhonny Peralta
LF - Mark Teahen
CF - Grady Sizemore
RF - Magglio Ordoñez
DH - Travis Hafner
SP - Fausto Carmona
SP - C.C. Sabathia
SP - Francisco Liriano
SP - Zack Greinke
SP - Justin Verlander
Bench
Victor Martinez
Curtis Granderson
Carlos Guillen
Alex Gordon
Billy Butler
Bullpen
Joakim Soria
Joel Zumaya
Rafael Betancourt
Juan Rincon
Rafael Perez
Yasuhiko Yabuta
MVP?
Sizemore
Cy?
Carmona
ROY?
Yabuta, or, for those who prefer not to count highly experienced 34-year old Japanese players, I'll go with Denard Span even if he couldn't find a roster spot for Opening Day.
Next up: AL East, starting with Baltimore
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Cleveland | 95 | 67 |
| Detroit | 86 | 76 |
| Kansas City | 80 | 82 |
| Minnesota | 77 | 85 |
| Chicago | 73 | 89 |
The Cleveland projection seemed a little high so I've come down on the low side and Detroit's a little low, but even after adjusting for that, you'll see I don't even have this being a particularly close race.
Detroit may be getting all the press for their big acquisitions, but the stand-pat Indians look like the class of the division to me.
Kansas haven't finished as high as 3rd since 2003, their last winning season but I'm buying into a dose of hope for the poor Royals.
77 wins for the Twins is probably about what is expected after their fire sale, it's next year and beyond that matters in the Twin Cities.
The White Sox just look plain bad. It's hard to believe that these guys won the Series in 2005 and with much of the same roster, but then, that essentially has been their problem. Regression and aging have been ignorred or scoffed at and I can't see this year being any kinder than the last to the Pale Hose.
AL Central All-Star Team
C - Joe Mauer
1B - Justin Morneau
2B - Placido Polanco
3B - Miguel Cabrera
SS - Jhonny Peralta
LF - Mark Teahen
CF - Grady Sizemore
RF - Magglio Ordoñez
DH - Travis Hafner
SP - Fausto Carmona
SP - C.C. Sabathia
SP - Francisco Liriano
SP - Zack Greinke
SP - Justin Verlander
Bench
Victor Martinez
Curtis Granderson
Carlos Guillen
Alex Gordon
Billy Butler
Bullpen
Joakim Soria
Joel Zumaya
Rafael Betancourt
Juan Rincon
Rafael Perez
Yasuhiko Yabuta
MVP?
Sizemore
Cy?
Carmona
ROY?
Yabuta, or, for those who prefer not to count highly experienced 34-year old Japanese players, I'll go with Denard Span even if he couldn't find a roster spot for Opening Day.
Next up: AL East, starting with Baltimore
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Minnesota Twins
To round off the AL Central, it's the Minnesota Twins. More or less a .500 team last year, so which way do they go?
On offense they say goodbye to "face of the franchise" Torii Hunter. 22-year old prospect, Carlos Gomez will take over duties in centerfield and should maintain the defensive level but he's not even close to ready to face Major League pitching.
Gomez beat out the slightly-more-ready Denard Span for the job, presumably on the strength of the Twins feeling it would be embarrassing to have traded away the best pitcher in baseball without getting at least one ML-ready player in return.
Span will start the year at Triple-A Rochester but it will be no surprise to see him up to take over from Gomez before the end of May.
Another 22-year old will start beside him in leftfield as Delmon Young has come over from Tampa Bay in return for the twins second best pitcher Matt Garza. Young, at least, is entering his 3rd Major League season and belongs though he's still got a way to go to fulfil his potential.
Michael Cuddyer in right completes the outfield unspectacularly but competently with Craig Monroe providing backup.
The infield looks better with Joe Mauer still behind the plate and Justin Morneau at first. Unfortunately, the offense just drops off after that with guys like Cuddyer and DH Jason Kubel the next best they have to offer.
Brendan Harris at second - who also came over in the Garza deal - is ok, but Adam Everett has for (two) obvious reasons a strong reputation as a glove first player and journeyman Mike Lamb at third isn't good enough with the bat to make up his defensive shortcomings (though having Everett next to him - just like the last four years in Houston - helps hide some of it). Still, anything that gets Nick Punto out of the lineup has to be a plus.
Besides Monroe, the bench consists of Mike Redmond, a very capable backup catcher, rookie infielder Matt Tolbert and somehow Punto has survived on the roster.
The pitching, obviously looks rather different with the departures of Santana and Garza who are not easily replaced. (Not to mention Carlos Silva who was their third best pitcher.)
87 year old Livan Hernandez will be the Opening Day starter has failed only once - and by a single out in 1999 - to record 200+ innings since his first full season with the Marlins in 1998 so he's got that going for him, which is nice. Unfortunately, those 200 innings are unlikely to be anything like "ace"-worthy. If he can keep his ERA under 5.00 it will be something of a surprise but one the Twins will need to keep things from getting really ugly.
The beautifully named Boof Bonser appears to be the nominal #2 but should put up numbers much the same as Hernandez over a few less innings.
The third starter Nick Blackburn may be a touch better than that but not much if at all.
So, the best starters on the team are supposedly their four and five guys: Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey who could both be somewhere around, or just above, league average.
On the plus side, Francisco Liriano, who missed all of last year following Tommy John surgery will be up with the club after a couple of minor league starts to finish getting his arm ready. He'll probably bump Blackburn back to Rochester and Bonser and co. down a spot.
Presumably, the Twins will take things easy with Liriano unless they find themselves in the hunt late in the year, but if they can get 140 quality innings from him they should be pleased heading to 2009. (And less embarrassed in 2008.)
The bullpen is a lot better than the rotation with closer Joe Nathan joined by Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Dennys Reyes and Brian Bass.
Bass aside, everyone of them is above average with the only real weakness the lack of any lefthanders after Reyes.
Rough estimates for offense: 690 runs scored +/-35 and defense: 760 runs allowed +/-38.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 81-81
Medium: 73-89
Low: 65-97
Ultimately, the trades of Santana and Garza pretty much signalled this as a rebuilding year so success will be measuerd more in progress from guys like Liriano and especially the guys who came in those trade packages like Gomez than it will be measured in wins.
Next up: A quick round up of the AL Central - Standings predictions and the like, then we'll move onto the AL East, starting with Baltimore.
On offense they say goodbye to "face of the franchise" Torii Hunter. 22-year old prospect, Carlos Gomez will take over duties in centerfield and should maintain the defensive level but he's not even close to ready to face Major League pitching.
Gomez beat out the slightly-more-ready Denard Span for the job, presumably on the strength of the Twins feeling it would be embarrassing to have traded away the best pitcher in baseball without getting at least one ML-ready player in return.
Span will start the year at Triple-A Rochester but it will be no surprise to see him up to take over from Gomez before the end of May.
Another 22-year old will start beside him in leftfield as Delmon Young has come over from Tampa Bay in return for the twins second best pitcher Matt Garza. Young, at least, is entering his 3rd Major League season and belongs though he's still got a way to go to fulfil his potential.
Michael Cuddyer in right completes the outfield unspectacularly but competently with Craig Monroe providing backup.
The infield looks better with Joe Mauer still behind the plate and Justin Morneau at first. Unfortunately, the offense just drops off after that with guys like Cuddyer and DH Jason Kubel the next best they have to offer.
Brendan Harris at second - who also came over in the Garza deal - is ok, but Adam Everett has for (two) obvious reasons a strong reputation as a glove first player and journeyman Mike Lamb at third isn't good enough with the bat to make up his defensive shortcomings (though having Everett next to him - just like the last four years in Houston - helps hide some of it). Still, anything that gets Nick Punto out of the lineup has to be a plus.
Besides Monroe, the bench consists of Mike Redmond, a very capable backup catcher, rookie infielder Matt Tolbert and somehow Punto has survived on the roster.
The pitching, obviously looks rather different with the departures of Santana and Garza who are not easily replaced. (Not to mention Carlos Silva who was their third best pitcher.)
87 year old Livan Hernandez will be the Opening Day starter has failed only once - and by a single out in 1999 - to record 200+ innings since his first full season with the Marlins in 1998 so he's got that going for him, which is nice. Unfortunately, those 200 innings are unlikely to be anything like "ace"-worthy. If he can keep his ERA under 5.00 it will be something of a surprise but one the Twins will need to keep things from getting really ugly.
The beautifully named Boof Bonser appears to be the nominal #2 but should put up numbers much the same as Hernandez over a few less innings.
The third starter Nick Blackburn may be a touch better than that but not much if at all.
So, the best starters on the team are supposedly their four and five guys: Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey who could both be somewhere around, or just above, league average.
On the plus side, Francisco Liriano, who missed all of last year following Tommy John surgery will be up with the club after a couple of minor league starts to finish getting his arm ready. He'll probably bump Blackburn back to Rochester and Bonser and co. down a spot.
Presumably, the Twins will take things easy with Liriano unless they find themselves in the hunt late in the year, but if they can get 140 quality innings from him they should be pleased heading to 2009. (And less embarrassed in 2008.)
The bullpen is a lot better than the rotation with closer Joe Nathan joined by Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Dennys Reyes and Brian Bass.
Bass aside, everyone of them is above average with the only real weakness the lack of any lefthanders after Reyes.
Rough estimates for offense: 690 runs scored +/-35 and defense: 760 runs allowed +/-38.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 81-81
Medium: 73-89
Low: 65-97
Ultimately, the trades of Santana and Garza pretty much signalled this as a rebuilding year so success will be measuerd more in progress from guys like Liriano and especially the guys who came in those trade packages like Gomez than it will be measured in wins.
Next up: A quick round up of the AL Central - Standings predictions and the like, then we'll move onto the AL East, starting with Baltimore.
Kansas City Royals
It's been nearly 20 years and 8 managers since the Royals won even 85 games, so is there any reason to think that Kansas are giong to return to the glory days of Brett and Bret?
Well, no, not really, but there is hope on the horizon at least which is more than Royals' fans have been able to reasonably say for some time.
After his first year at the helm, Dayton Moore has turned over a lot of players and seemingly has some sort of organised plan for the team.
So, why the optimism? Rather than plugging in washed out veteran after washed out veteran to try (and fail) to avoid 100 losses as has seemed to be the plan before, Moore has finally looked to grow his young talent base (and after so many early draft picks, you'd expect a decent farm, right?)
Alex Gordon at third is the first big reason. He was a completely different hitter in the second half of the season and if that's any sign of his growth then there's reason for optimism.
Billy Butler should see a full season at DH as the Royals seem to have finally grasped that he just isn't cut out for playing defense but there's no doubt that he can hit.
John Buck should finally get a chance to be the every day catcher with Miguel Olivo providing the backup role. Olivo hits extremely well against lefties, although not an ideal platoon snice Buck hits better against them too, unsurprisingly, but handled right they could be a bit better than average between them. Olivo starts the season suspended so career minor-leaguer Matt Tupman will be up for a few days to back up Buck and may get one start, but he will almost certainly be sent back down once Olivo returns.
David DeJesus probably doesn't count as a youngster, as such, anymore but he brings a solid bat and defense to centerfield whilst Mark Teahen move position for the second year in a row going from right to left field.
Tony Pena, Jr. still can't hit but makes up for most of those shortcomings with his glove at shortstop.
Free agent signing Jose Guillen in right and Mark Grudzielanek at second provide the veteran guidance, at least, until Alberto Callaspo claims Grudz' job.
Journeyman Ross Gload fills out the lineup at first without any great distinction with bat or glove and overall the Royals should be only slightly below average but with plenty of possibility for breakout seasons.
Pitching is even more intriguing as the Royals enter year 2 of the Gil Meche era.
Meche was a little fortunate last year and his hot start made it look even better but, in reality, there's no reason to think Meche can't at least come close to duplicating 2007.
More intriguing is pitcher-cum-sabermetrician Brian Bannister who doesn't strike out enough batters, especially for a flyball pitcher but had an unusually low home run per flyball ratio and an unfeasibly low BABIP.
Research shows that, in general, neither of these are sustainable but, as Bannister has discussed himself, he is also aware of the research and is doing more of his own looking for ways that things can be "beaten".
It's extremely unlikely that he'll escape some regression to the mean, but his minor league track record suggests he could improve his K-rate to help offset some of that. If his research bears fruit that he's able to put into practice then maybe, just maybe he can keep up what he's been doing.
Still, KC fans will probably be paying more attention still to Zack Greinke who opens the season as nominally the third starter but could easily be the staff ace by the time the All-Star Game rolls around. Greinke has great stuff and great control and it's easy to forget he's only 24. If everything comes together for Greinke the Royals' optimism for the coming years would be well justified.
Brett Tomko is a serviceable veteran fourth starter and the final rotation spot goes to John Bale who hasn't started since 2004 for the Carp in Japan. He converted to relief for his last two seasons there and did the same for the Royals last year but he's shown (albeit in NPB) that he's capable of holding his own as a starter and is probably better than most 5th starters in the league.
Joakim Soria proved to be an excellent Rule 5 pickup last year and should have an opportunity to prove he's one of the best closer's in baseball right now.
Getting the ball from the starters to Soria will be Jimmy Gobble and Ron Mahay from the left side and Leo Nunez, Ramon Ramirez and Yasuhiko Yabuta from the right. Yabuta is in his first Major League season but has plenty experience from his time in NPB as a setup man with the Marines with ERAs ranging from 2.62 to 3.07 over the past four years.
If Yabuta transitions well to the US he and Gobble will probably provide the primary setup role with the others filling in in middle relief.
Once Olivo's suspension is lifted and presumably Tupman is returned to the minors the Royals may elect to go with a 12th pitcher in which case long-man Joel Peralta could join this group, otherwise Ryan Shealy would seem to be the top position playing candidate to push Gload at first.
A lot depends on the growth of the younger players and whether Greinke can finally breakout as a top flight starter but, for the first time in many years, there can be optimism for the Royals.
Rough estimates for offense: 760 runs scored +/-38 and defense: 800 runs allowed +/-40.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 85-77
Medium: 77-85
Low: 69-93
Ok, so 85 wins is still the high end, but maybe the Royals can give themselves something to build on for next year.
Next up: Minnesota
Well, no, not really, but there is hope on the horizon at least which is more than Royals' fans have been able to reasonably say for some time.
After his first year at the helm, Dayton Moore has turned over a lot of players and seemingly has some sort of organised plan for the team.
So, why the optimism? Rather than plugging in washed out veteran after washed out veteran to try (and fail) to avoid 100 losses as has seemed to be the plan before, Moore has finally looked to grow his young talent base (and after so many early draft picks, you'd expect a decent farm, right?)
Alex Gordon at third is the first big reason. He was a completely different hitter in the second half of the season and if that's any sign of his growth then there's reason for optimism.
Billy Butler should see a full season at DH as the Royals seem to have finally grasped that he just isn't cut out for playing defense but there's no doubt that he can hit.
John Buck should finally get a chance to be the every day catcher with Miguel Olivo providing the backup role. Olivo hits extremely well against lefties, although not an ideal platoon snice Buck hits better against them too, unsurprisingly, but handled right they could be a bit better than average between them. Olivo starts the season suspended so career minor-leaguer Matt Tupman will be up for a few days to back up Buck and may get one start, but he will almost certainly be sent back down once Olivo returns.
David DeJesus probably doesn't count as a youngster, as such, anymore but he brings a solid bat and defense to centerfield whilst Mark Teahen move position for the second year in a row going from right to left field.
Tony Pena, Jr. still can't hit but makes up for most of those shortcomings with his glove at shortstop.
Free agent signing Jose Guillen in right and Mark Grudzielanek at second provide the veteran guidance, at least, until Alberto Callaspo claims Grudz' job.
Journeyman Ross Gload fills out the lineup at first without any great distinction with bat or glove and overall the Royals should be only slightly below average but with plenty of possibility for breakout seasons.
Pitching is even more intriguing as the Royals enter year 2 of the Gil Meche era.
Meche was a little fortunate last year and his hot start made it look even better but, in reality, there's no reason to think Meche can't at least come close to duplicating 2007.
More intriguing is pitcher-cum-sabermetrician Brian Bannister who doesn't strike out enough batters, especially for a flyball pitcher but had an unusually low home run per flyball ratio and an unfeasibly low BABIP.
Research shows that, in general, neither of these are sustainable but, as Bannister has discussed himself, he is also aware of the research and is doing more of his own looking for ways that things can be "beaten".
It's extremely unlikely that he'll escape some regression to the mean, but his minor league track record suggests he could improve his K-rate to help offset some of that. If his research bears fruit that he's able to put into practice then maybe, just maybe he can keep up what he's been doing.
Still, KC fans will probably be paying more attention still to Zack Greinke who opens the season as nominally the third starter but could easily be the staff ace by the time the All-Star Game rolls around. Greinke has great stuff and great control and it's easy to forget he's only 24. If everything comes together for Greinke the Royals' optimism for the coming years would be well justified.
Brett Tomko is a serviceable veteran fourth starter and the final rotation spot goes to John Bale who hasn't started since 2004 for the Carp in Japan. He converted to relief for his last two seasons there and did the same for the Royals last year but he's shown (albeit in NPB) that he's capable of holding his own as a starter and is probably better than most 5th starters in the league.
Joakim Soria proved to be an excellent Rule 5 pickup last year and should have an opportunity to prove he's one of the best closer's in baseball right now.
Getting the ball from the starters to Soria will be Jimmy Gobble and Ron Mahay from the left side and Leo Nunez, Ramon Ramirez and Yasuhiko Yabuta from the right. Yabuta is in his first Major League season but has plenty experience from his time in NPB as a setup man with the Marines with ERAs ranging from 2.62 to 3.07 over the past four years.
If Yabuta transitions well to the US he and Gobble will probably provide the primary setup role with the others filling in in middle relief.
Once Olivo's suspension is lifted and presumably Tupman is returned to the minors the Royals may elect to go with a 12th pitcher in which case long-man Joel Peralta could join this group, otherwise Ryan Shealy would seem to be the top position playing candidate to push Gload at first.
A lot depends on the growth of the younger players and whether Greinke can finally breakout as a top flight starter but, for the first time in many years, there can be optimism for the Royals.
Rough estimates for offense: 760 runs scored +/-38 and defense: 800 runs allowed +/-40.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 85-77
Medium: 77-85
Low: 69-93
Ok, so 85 wins is still the high end, but maybe the Royals can give themselves something to build on for next year.
Next up: Minnesota
Detroit Tigers
A very busy off-season seems to have thrust Detroit into the role of favourites in their division and, in many eyes, the league.
The Tigers paid steep prices but they added to an already potent offense (2nd in the AL for runs scored in 2007) by bringing over Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins to man third and Edgar Renteria from Atlanta to play short.
Renteria's arrival bumps Carlos Guillen over to first base where his bat should provide a significant upgrade over the departing Sean Casey.
Placido Polanco remains at second after his well-deserved All-Star performance last year and Ivan Rodriguez will provide a veteran presence (if little else at this stage) behind the plate.
The moves make Brandon Inge the odd man out with Cabrera taking his job. Inge has been working out in the outfield and at catcher again and should see time off as a backup all over the place. Barring an injury pressing him into everyday use, however, he is very likely to be traded before the deadline, assuming the Tigers pick up some of his salary.
Still, to open the season those injuries put him in the lineup. Vance Wilson will open the season on the DL, making Inge the first choice of backup catcher, and with Curtis Granderson missing the first week or two with a broken finger, courtesy of a Travis Blackley fastball, Inge has become the Opening Day starter at centerfield.
Injuries aside, Granderson should be the mainstay at center with Magglio Ordoñez in right looking to duplicate last year's near-MVP season. Unfortunately, whilst Ordoñez will almost certainly have a fine season, he's far from likely to come close to repeating last year. Granderson also looks likely to decline a little though (health-permitting) he should still be one of the top centerfield hitters in the game.
Jacque Jones is another new arrival via trade and is expected to start in leftfield, but he should only provide a small upgrade on the at-bats wasted on Craig Monroe last year, at least until they start platooning him with Marcus Thames.
Gary Sheffield provides another big bat at DH though not as big as in year's past. Sheff turns 40 shortly after this season ends and all those years are starting to take a toll. His bat is still good, but about average for a designated hitter. He's no longer a big plus point to the offense but he doesn't hurt them either.
Ryan Raburn and Ramon Santiago round out the bench providing defensive cover in the outfield and infield respectively, though Raburn could well find himself starting in leftfield before the year ends.
Defensively the infield is split in two: the right side of Guillen and Polanco should be excellent but the left side is a big hole. Cabrera is a butcher at third and Renteria is living on reputation these days having very little range though what he can reach he still deals with effectively.
The outfield is probably about average defensively though its range will suffer until Granderson's return.
The Tigers' pitching staff also welcomes a new member with Dontrelle Willis coming over from the Marlins in the Cabrera trade.
Willis should slot in as the #5 starter behind Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson to start the season.
All four of those guys should be better than the league average starter with Verlander well above. What they aren't likely to do is post 200+ innings apiece.
Rogers spent little time on the mound last year with separate injuries to his pitching shoulder and elbow and at 43 has to be considered a question mark to make it through the season unscathed.
Oddly, as the 5th starter Willis is probably the most likely to log a high innings total but only if his performance can keep him on the mound. His performance has been in decline as hitters have grown accustomed to his awkward delivery and moving from the NL to the AL is usually accompanied by a hefty rise in ERA. Unless the league change also gives him back some of that advantage he's lost he could well see his performance hovering around replacement level.
The bullpen starts as a big question with Joel Zumaya unlikely to join the club until at least the All-Star break and Fernando Rodney likely to miss most of the first month.
In their absence, another 40-something, Todd Jones, will hold down the closer role. Beyond Jones and the equally unexciting Bobby Seay and Jason Grilli there's little depth in the Tigers' 'pen.
Detroit look to go with a 12-man staff filling out the roster with Zach Miner, Denny Bautista, Yorman Bazardo and Aquilino Lopez, none of whom are going to inspire much confidence in skipper Jim Leyland.
Somehow, despite having a bunch of good starters, pitching looks to be the weakness that could come back to bite the Tigers. Unless Willis comes good, Rogers stays healthy and the others consistently get deep into games, too many poor relievers are going to post too many innings.
Given that most of the Tigers' minor league depth was used to acquire Cabrera, Willis, Renteria and Jacque Jones there's probably not much help coming from below either. Once Rodney, and - hopefully - later Zumaya return things will look a lot better, however.
Rough estimates for offense: 860 runs scored +/-43 and defense: 830 runs allowed +/-42.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 92-70
Medium: 84-78
Low: 76-86
A wildcard in this could be Brandon Inge but his contract makes it unlikely they can get the value they want for him. Still, if they can plug in a couple of decent bullpen arms to support their offense the high projection seems reasonable.
Still, this is a lot worse than the general wisdom seems to be but the lack of depth and overall weak defense will expose this team, I think.
Up next: The Royals
The Tigers paid steep prices but they added to an already potent offense (2nd in the AL for runs scored in 2007) by bringing over Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins to man third and Edgar Renteria from Atlanta to play short.
Renteria's arrival bumps Carlos Guillen over to first base where his bat should provide a significant upgrade over the departing Sean Casey.
Placido Polanco remains at second after his well-deserved All-Star performance last year and Ivan Rodriguez will provide a veteran presence (if little else at this stage) behind the plate.
The moves make Brandon Inge the odd man out with Cabrera taking his job. Inge has been working out in the outfield and at catcher again and should see time off as a backup all over the place. Barring an injury pressing him into everyday use, however, he is very likely to be traded before the deadline, assuming the Tigers pick up some of his salary.
Still, to open the season those injuries put him in the lineup. Vance Wilson will open the season on the DL, making Inge the first choice of backup catcher, and with Curtis Granderson missing the first week or two with a broken finger, courtesy of a Travis Blackley fastball, Inge has become the Opening Day starter at centerfield.
Injuries aside, Granderson should be the mainstay at center with Magglio Ordoñez in right looking to duplicate last year's near-MVP season. Unfortunately, whilst Ordoñez will almost certainly have a fine season, he's far from likely to come close to repeating last year. Granderson also looks likely to decline a little though (health-permitting) he should still be one of the top centerfield hitters in the game.
Jacque Jones is another new arrival via trade and is expected to start in leftfield, but he should only provide a small upgrade on the at-bats wasted on Craig Monroe last year, at least until they start platooning him with Marcus Thames.
Gary Sheffield provides another big bat at DH though not as big as in year's past. Sheff turns 40 shortly after this season ends and all those years are starting to take a toll. His bat is still good, but about average for a designated hitter. He's no longer a big plus point to the offense but he doesn't hurt them either.
Ryan Raburn and Ramon Santiago round out the bench providing defensive cover in the outfield and infield respectively, though Raburn could well find himself starting in leftfield before the year ends.
Defensively the infield is split in two: the right side of Guillen and Polanco should be excellent but the left side is a big hole. Cabrera is a butcher at third and Renteria is living on reputation these days having very little range though what he can reach he still deals with effectively.
The outfield is probably about average defensively though its range will suffer until Granderson's return.
The Tigers' pitching staff also welcomes a new member with Dontrelle Willis coming over from the Marlins in the Cabrera trade.
Willis should slot in as the #5 starter behind Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson to start the season.
All four of those guys should be better than the league average starter with Verlander well above. What they aren't likely to do is post 200+ innings apiece.
Rogers spent little time on the mound last year with separate injuries to his pitching shoulder and elbow and at 43 has to be considered a question mark to make it through the season unscathed.
Oddly, as the 5th starter Willis is probably the most likely to log a high innings total but only if his performance can keep him on the mound. His performance has been in decline as hitters have grown accustomed to his awkward delivery and moving from the NL to the AL is usually accompanied by a hefty rise in ERA. Unless the league change also gives him back some of that advantage he's lost he could well see his performance hovering around replacement level.
The bullpen starts as a big question with Joel Zumaya unlikely to join the club until at least the All-Star break and Fernando Rodney likely to miss most of the first month.
In their absence, another 40-something, Todd Jones, will hold down the closer role. Beyond Jones and the equally unexciting Bobby Seay and Jason Grilli there's little depth in the Tigers' 'pen.
Detroit look to go with a 12-man staff filling out the roster with Zach Miner, Denny Bautista, Yorman Bazardo and Aquilino Lopez, none of whom are going to inspire much confidence in skipper Jim Leyland.
Somehow, despite having a bunch of good starters, pitching looks to be the weakness that could come back to bite the Tigers. Unless Willis comes good, Rogers stays healthy and the others consistently get deep into games, too many poor relievers are going to post too many innings.
Given that most of the Tigers' minor league depth was used to acquire Cabrera, Willis, Renteria and Jacque Jones there's probably not much help coming from below either. Once Rodney, and - hopefully - later Zumaya return things will look a lot better, however.
Rough estimates for offense: 860 runs scored +/-43 and defense: 830 runs allowed +/-42.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 92-70
Medium: 84-78
Low: 76-86
A wildcard in this could be Brandon Inge but his contract makes it unlikely they can get the value they want for him. Still, if they can plug in a couple of decent bullpen arms to support their offense the high projection seems reasonable.
Still, this is a lot worse than the general wisdom seems to be but the lack of depth and overall weak defense will expose this team, I think.
Up next: The Royals
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