The Mariners seem to have a habit of finding themselves involved in particularly interesting trades and whilst this years swap of Adam Jones, George Sherrill and a trio of minor league pitchers (righties Chris Tillman and Kam Mickolio and southpaw Tony Butler) isn't quite in the Varitek and Low for Heathcliffe Slocumb league it may not be far off.
We already covered Jones and Sherrill under the Orioles but it's worth noting that two of Seattle's biggest holes are its outfield defense (hello, Adam) and the depth of its relief corps (hi, George!).
Enough about who isn't here for now, let's look at what's left in Seattle.
Ichiro! in centerfield is going to find himself way beyond overworked since Raul Ibañez returns in leftfield and Brad Wilkerson takes over in rightfield.
Safeco Field has the largest leftfield expanse in the AL and Ibañez is just not capable of covering a significant portion of it. Wilkerson was formerly a pretty decent fielder but has declined in recent years losing what speed he had.
Offensively, Ichiro! is still the most exciting player in the Majors to watch and Ibañez' bat is not his problem (except against left-handed pitching) though Wilkerson is unlikely to provide any significant offensive threat for the Mariners.
It appears that the Mariners brain-trust (a loose term) are not only blind to the relative values of their prospects (see trade), the importance of defence (see Ibañez not DH-ing) but also to the relevance of Spring Training stats (none) and how to use platoons.
To that end, Mike Morse has ridden an incredibly good ST into over-writing the fact that he's just not very good and never has been into a job platooning with Wilkerson (who has no significant platoon split, unlike, say, Ibañez). Morse, by the way, is an infielder with no significant experience (or ability) in the outfield just to amplify the weakness.
In the infield, Adrian Beltre starts at third with a decent bat and an excellent glove opposite Richie Sexson at first in just about every sense.
Sexson's bat speed (and with it pitch recognition) are pretty much entirely gone and his fielding has declined from terrible.
In the middle of the infield, the double-play combination of Yuniesky Betancourt at short and Jose Lopez provide most of this club's hope for progress. Lopez struggled last year whilst dealing with personal issues and will, hopefully, bounce back well. His glove should be enough to keep him in the lineup (on a team that recognises such things) but he should be able to hit some too.
Betancourt's defense was excellent just a couple of year's ago but has quickly declined. He's a bad habit of bad throws and now his range is dropping as his size increases. Whether a commensurate increase in offense, especially power, can offset that to give Yuni value is unclear but for now he appears to be heading in the wrong direction.
Kenji Johjima returns at catcher and despite a likely small decline should be more than adequate for now, certainly more so than the worst DH in the league: Jose Vidro.
Vidro's numbers last year are something of a mirage (.342 BABIP), looking better than they were and behind the high and hollow average was nothing but an excess of double plays.
The bench may well be the worst ever constructed. until the recent callup of Greg Norton replacing Charlie Jimerson there wasn't a single right-hander on the bench. They're carrying two poor-hitting utility guys in Miguel Cairo and local boy Willie Bloomquist who essential perform the same role. Poorly.
Jamie Burke rounds out the bench as the backup catcher and lone bright spot on the pine.
The rotation will need to do a lot to make up for the lack of offensive production so new acquisition Erik Bedard is under plenty of pressure.
He becomes ace 1a for Seattle after his excellent breakout season last year. It's unlikely he can maintain the strikeout rate from 2007 (it jumped about 40% from his career line) but he should still be very good and movies from Camden Yards to Safeco will help mask some things, unfortunately playing without corner outfielders will make things look worse.
Bedard's pretty much doomed to have numbers worse than his performance which will make him appear to be a failure for the Mariners regardless, but results aside he should pitch well for them when he's able. His injury history is worrying and there's no sense in expecting a 200+ innings season from Bedard this year or next.
Ace 1b is 22-year old Felix Hernandez. Yes, he's still just 22 (actually he turned 22 on Tuesday) and already well established as a quality Major Leaguer.
King Felix has plenty of scope for improvement still, but even if he just maintains his performance level he should be excellent. It's odd to note, but for someone who pitches half his games in Safeco field he actually gives up an unusually high number of home runs per fly. A fluke that should settle down to improve his numbers.
If Felix can avoid falling into the trap of "establishing the fastball early" and use his three plus-plus pitches more often (his fastball's good but easily the weak pitch in his arsenal) then maybe this year he could take the leap.
Jarrod Washburn is a long way removed from being a half-decent pitcher and his extreme flyball tendencies will lead to a lot of doubles with Ibañez and Wilkerson behind him.
Carlos Silva is often described as an "innings-eater" which is pretty much code for mediocre but durable. Silva strikes out about one batter a year so relies very heavily on his defense to make outs. Uh-oh. Fortunately he has a strong groundball tendency which will mean the extra damage isn't quite as bad as it could be, but he's not going to enjoy pitching with this team behind him. (I'm resisting all temptation to make other "eating" jokes about Silva.)
Miguel Batista in the fifth spot is a decent nothing special guy who can be used as a swingman out of the bullpen if necessary as well as as an average starter.
That bullpen starts with J.J. Putz, or did until he was placed on the DL with costochondritis. He's started throwing again already and looks like he might be back soon but costocondritis is a tricky ailment inflammation of rib cartilage) and there's an strong chance that he could miss a fair amount of time over this.
Eric O'Flaherty and Ryan Rowland-Smith are a decent pair of lefty options and Sean Green and Mark Lowe are solid from the right. Cha Seung Baek is the long man and presumably 6th starter and Roy Corcoran's filling in until Putz returns.
This bullpen with Putz could be a great strength. Unfortunately, the Mariners have one of the worst managers this side of Dusty Baker and it appears likely they'll not be used to their strengths.
The team is interesting as an example of management not recognising what they had and being blinded by superficial numbers. Seattle won 88 games last year despite being outscored and the front office has seen the 88 as truth and worked from that basis to "win now" without realising that they have no offense, no defense and some very nervous pitchers.
Rough estimates for offense: 720 runs scored +/-36 and defense: 800 runs allowed +/-40.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 81-81
Medium: 72-90
Low: 65-97
Even if everything goes perfectly for the Mariners, I have a hard time seeing them as the contenders their front office thinks they are. Given that, getting rid off half the farm especially Jones and Sherrill looks like one hell of a bad trade. Not because Bedard's not good but because Bedard can't make this team win on his own and he'll be gone in two years.
Up Next: Texas rounds out the American League
