After 10 straight AL East titles, the Yankees finally had to settle for making their 15th consecutive playoffs via the wildcard last year.Can they recapture the division or are they on the way down?
As with the Red Sox, the Yankees return pretty much the same lineup as last year.
Melky Cabrera starts in centerfield and should build off last year whilst flanked by the more experienced Hideki Matsui and Bobby Abreu in left and right respectively. Johnny Damon should split time with Matsui a fair bit with whichever one is not playing the field filling the DH role.
All three are good to very good hitters though Cabrera will have his glovework cut out covering all the extra room left by the others in the outfield.
The infield is also the same as 2007 with Jorge Posada behind the plate as ever, Alex Rodriguez at third, Derek Jeter at short, Robinson Cano at second and Jason Giambi at first.
As well as combining to cost the GNP of several nations they are all well above average offensively though only Cano is decent in the field. Rodriguez is a pretty average third baseman which puts him light years ahead of the other three defensively.
Combined they should give pitchers from their opponents and their own staff nightmares.
Jose Molina will backup Posada for days where Jorge needs a breather and the Yankees need a no-hit, no-glove catcher.
Shelley Duncan, Wilson Betemit and Morgan Ensberg fill out the bench but aren't likely to see significant playing time without any injuries.
Still, the run production looks good but given the question marks about the pitching the atrocious defense could just magnify a few things.
Chien-Ming Wang heads a fairly weak rotation and hopes to duplicate his 2007 season but without a great deal of likelihood of success. His decent ERA spoke a lot to the good fortune in flyballs landing the right side of the wall which isn't likely to be sustainable and as a fairly extreme groundball pitcher the defense will hurt him quite a bit.
Mike Mussina is the second starter after a horrendous 2007. He was unfortunate last year with a dreadful strand rate which should right itself somewhat but his age lokos to have caught up with him too so he won't look much better than he was.
The young guys Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy will get to be regular starters for the first time with a lot of expectation, hype and hope resting on them. Both will probably end up as decent major leaguers (with Hughes the better of the two) in the end but they should suffer some nasty growing pains this year.
Andy Pettitte is slotted in currently on the DL but should round out the rotation. He should be a fairly reliable starter though he too had a lucky HR per flyball rate and is due to regress (and age!) He's expected to be activated to make his scheduled start tomorrow.
Mariano Rivera, of course, returns as closer and all eyes will be on young Joba Chamberlain after his dazzling late-season callup last year.
Chamberlain is in limbo at the moment as he's projected to join the rotation eventually but his immediate utility in the bullpen combined with a need for a transition plan for Rivera's eventual departure may keep him in the 'pen.
The rest of the relief corps is made up of Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins, Brian Bruney, Ross Ohlendorf and Jonathan Albaladejo for the time being, none of whom inspire any particular confidence.
It's possible one of them will be sent down to the minors to clear a roster spot for Pettitte tomorrow though it's more likely the Yankees will shorten the bench and send down Ensberg or Duncan instead.
The pitching staff isn't really horrible, but it doesn't have much strength beyond the last two guys in the bullpen so the offense is going to have to work hard. Still, they have the right offense for that.
Rough estimates for offense: 920 runs scored +/-46 and defense: 790 runs allowed +/-40.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 101-61
Medium: 93-69
Low: 85-77
The power of the lineup should compensate the mediocrity of the pitching staff which can at least hold its own. On the other hand, for a team with this much money spent there's precious little real depth.
Next: Tampa Bay
