Next, the Milwaukee Brewers who are likely the main challengers to the Cubs in the NL Central.
The offense consists of mostly the same cast of characters with only Geoff Jenkins leaving replaced by Tony Gwynn, Jr. which would seem to be a weakening of the offense but so many of the players are young that there's hope that that difference will be more than offset by progression from the kids.
Also, whilst the offense is mostly the same, the defensive alignment has been shifted radically.
Reigning Rookie of the Year Ryan Braun leaves third base (thankfully) and hopefully will prove less of an adventure patrolling leftfield. The young Gwynn takes over centerfield and Corey Hart remains in right.
With Gwynn on the DL to start the season the Gabe duo Gross and Kapler split time in center initially but with Gwynn returning Gross has already been traded away to the Rays.
Offensively Braun more than earned his Rookie of the Year award (though a strong argument can be made that he should have lost it factoring his "defense") and although some regression can be expected he should still be a plus offensive player even at left.
Hart should be strong on the other side as well whilst Gwynn is still a long, long way short of his Hall of Fame father's batting prowess.
Prince Fielder still anchors the lineup from first base and Bill Hall comes in from centerfield to fill in at third base. Hall is a solid bat and Fielder is a threat to be an MVP candidate and home run champion. Not too shabby.
The middle infield consists of Rickie Weeks at second and J.J. Hardy at short. With Weeks fully healthy this year he should break through and become a decent offensive player but Hardy seems more or less a league average shortstop.
Jason Kendall somehow continues to find contracts and will be the primary catcher backed up by Mike Rivera.
Kapler and Rivera are joined on the bench by the experienced Craig Counsell and, well, that's it. The Brewers have had Hernan Iribarren and Joe Dillon each make brief appearances but both are back in the minors whilst Milwaukee is carrying 14(!) pitchers.
The weakness is the defense. Bill Hall is an average defensive third baseman which is pretty good for a guy in his fourth regular starting position. Unfortunately he's probably the best defender on the team with Gwynn in center maybe a push. That won't stop them scoring runs, but it does put a lot more pressure on the pitching staff.
That pitching staff, all 14 of them, is working around various injuries. For once, their ace Ben Sheets seems fully healthy giving them a very strong #1 guy.
After that there's Chris Capuano on the DL with a ligament sprain in his left elbow and the season started with Yovani Gallardo unavailable too.
Gallarado is back up now providing a second decent starting arm ahead of a group of average (or worse) guys. Jeff Suppan has a lot of experience but isn't anything more than a borderline #3 guy and the rest of the rotation will eventually work out to be some combination of Matt Bush and the youngsters Manny Parra and Carlos Villanueva.
Presumably soon one of those three will be bumped either to the 'pen or the minors to allow an extra bench player and another will follow once Capuano returns.
The bullpen has Eric Gagne at closer but it certainly looks like he's more the pitcher Boston had last year than the record-setting closer of his Dodger days.
He's joined by Derek Turnbow, Brian Shouse, Salomon Torres, David Riske, Guillermo Mota, Seth McClung and rookie Mitch Stetter.
Plenty of name recognition (as far a it goes for middle relievers) but on the whole a fairly middling crew. Still, the depth of the relief corps should mean they can pull starters a little earlier if they struggle. On the other hand, it's hard to pinch-hit for the pitcher when there's nobody on the bench but other pitchers.
Overall, the pitching could be pretty reasonable with Capuano back but the tail of the rotation and the general mediocrity in the bullpen are a concern. So is Sheets, if for no other reason than it's always best to assume he will get injured.
Rough estimates for offense: 740 runs scored +/-37 and defense: 790 runs allowed +/-40.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 84-78
Medium: 76-86
Low: 68-94
That doesn't really look like a playoff team but with a lot of weak teams in their division they could still contend. Especially when Mike Cameron's suspension ends after the weekend which could help both their offense and defense with his glove in centerfield over the not-yet-ready Gwynn.
The numbers above didn't factor Cameron (because I forgot until just now) but he could maybe boost the Brewers by another 2-3 wins giving them a shot.
Next up: Pittsburgh Pirates
