Next, the Milwaukee Brewers who are likely the main challengers to the Cubs in the NL Central.
The offense consists of mostly the same cast of characters with only Geoff Jenkins leaving replaced by Tony Gwynn, Jr. which would seem to be a weakening of the offense but so many of the players are young that there's hope that that difference will be more than offset by progression from the kids.
Also, whilst the offense is mostly the same, the defensive alignment has been shifted radically.
Reigning Rookie of the Year Ryan Braun leaves third base (thankfully) and hopefully will prove less of an adventure patrolling leftfield. The young Gwynn takes over centerfield and Corey Hart remains in right.
With Gwynn on the DL to start the season the Gabe duo Gross and Kapler split time in center initially but with Gwynn returning Gross has already been traded away to the Rays.
Offensively Braun more than earned his Rookie of the Year award (though a strong argument can be made that he should have lost it factoring his "defense") and although some regression can be expected he should still be a plus offensive player even at left.
Hart should be strong on the other side as well whilst Gwynn is still a long, long way short of his Hall of Fame father's batting prowess.
Prince Fielder still anchors the lineup from first base and Bill Hall comes in from centerfield to fill in at third base. Hall is a solid bat and Fielder is a threat to be an MVP candidate and home run champion. Not too shabby.
The middle infield consists of Rickie Weeks at second and J.J. Hardy at short. With Weeks fully healthy this year he should break through and become a decent offensive player but Hardy seems more or less a league average shortstop.
Jason Kendall somehow continues to find contracts and will be the primary catcher backed up by Mike Rivera.
Kapler and Rivera are joined on the bench by the experienced Craig Counsell and, well, that's it. The Brewers have had Hernan Iribarren and Joe Dillon each make brief appearances but both are back in the minors whilst Milwaukee is carrying 14(!) pitchers.
The weakness is the defense. Bill Hall is an average defensive third baseman which is pretty good for a guy in his fourth regular starting position. Unfortunately he's probably the best defender on the team with Gwynn in center maybe a push. That won't stop them scoring runs, but it does put a lot more pressure on the pitching staff.
That pitching staff, all 14 of them, is working around various injuries. For once, their ace Ben Sheets seems fully healthy giving them a very strong #1 guy.
After that there's Chris Capuano on the DL with a ligament sprain in his left elbow and the season started with Yovani Gallardo unavailable too.
Gallarado is back up now providing a second decent starting arm ahead of a group of average (or worse) guys. Jeff Suppan has a lot of experience but isn't anything more than a borderline #3 guy and the rest of the rotation will eventually work out to be some combination of Matt Bush and the youngsters Manny Parra and Carlos Villanueva.
Presumably soon one of those three will be bumped either to the 'pen or the minors to allow an extra bench player and another will follow once Capuano returns.
The bullpen has Eric Gagne at closer but it certainly looks like he's more the pitcher Boston had last year than the record-setting closer of his Dodger days.
He's joined by Derek Turnbow, Brian Shouse, Salomon Torres, David Riske, Guillermo Mota, Seth McClung and rookie Mitch Stetter.
Plenty of name recognition (as far a it goes for middle relievers) but on the whole a fairly middling crew. Still, the depth of the relief corps should mean they can pull starters a little earlier if they struggle. On the other hand, it's hard to pinch-hit for the pitcher when there's nobody on the bench but other pitchers.
Overall, the pitching could be pretty reasonable with Capuano back but the tail of the rotation and the general mediocrity in the bullpen are a concern. So is Sheets, if for no other reason than it's always best to assume he will get injured.
Rough estimates for offense: 740 runs scored +/-37 and defense: 790 runs allowed +/-40.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 84-78
Medium: 76-86
Low: 68-94
That doesn't really look like a playoff team but with a lot of weak teams in their division they could still contend. Especially when Mike Cameron's suspension ends after the weekend which could help both their offense and defense with his glove in centerfield over the not-yet-ready Gwynn.
The numbers above didn't factor Cameron (because I forgot until just now) but he could maybe boost the Brewers by another 2-3 wins giving them a shot.
Next up: Pittsburgh Pirates
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Houston Astros
Houston looks a lot different these days with Craig Biggio following Jeff Bagwell into retirement and (presumably) eventual enshrinement at the Hall of Fame.
Even so, the outfield corners with Carlos Lee in left and Hunter Pence in right, along with first baseman Lance Berkman provide a solid power core for the offense.
In centerfield Michael Bourn figures to be a glove-first guy but his speed could add an offensive weapon if he can get on base enough.
Miguel Tejada is declining somewhat at this stage of his career and seeing a lot more groundballs, but declining for him is still a plus bat for shortstop.
Next to him at second base is Kazuo Matsui who certainly hasn't been as sharp these past few years since coming to MLB either with his (previously slick) fielding or with his (previously impressive) bat.
Ty Wigginton is currently on the DL so Geoff Blum fills in as the primary starter at third for now. Blum is a useful bench guy for his ability to play (just about) the field at a lot of positions but his bat is a liability in the starting lineup. Once Wigginton returns they'll put up with his lead glove to bring the offensive production back to around average third base levels.
J.R Towles has taken over as the starting catcher pushing Brad Ausmus to the bench as his backup. Towles is still developing but should provide an acceptable bat whereas Ausmus has never really been able to hit but has gotten by by being an excellent defensive catcher. Those days are behind him now though and he's of dubious value even as a backup.
The rest of the bench consists of Darin Erstad and Jose Cruz as outfield reserves and Mark Loretta with Tomas Perez to cover the infield. Which is to say, nothing worth having anymore.
If Tejada stays the course then he could combine with Berkman, Pence and Lee to keep this offense from being terrible but there are too many black holes to expect it to be good.
The pitching immediately looks good with Roy Oswalt at the top. He's a guy that sometimes gets overlooked as one of the top pitchers in the game but he can match up with anybody out there.
Unfortunately for Houston it goes rapidly downhill from there.
Brandon Backe is the number two starter in designation but not ability. Backe's a good hitter for a pitcher and a good pitcher for a hitter. He's just not really good enough at either job to be starting in the league.
Shawn Chacon is back to being a starter despite a large body of evidence showing that he isn't any good at it.
Wandy Rodriguez as the fourth starter is the closest the Astros have to a second decent starter though he's currently out on the DL. The fifth spot is taken by Chris Sampson, a 30-year old AAAA player.
Unless they find a way to get Oswalt to pitch every night they're in a lot of trouble.
The bullpen seems a little better starting with closer Jose Valverde. Unless his slow start is a continuation of the odd trend of only pitching well in odd numbered years he should be reasonably solid.
Bridging between him and the starters are Doug Brocail, Geoff Geary, Oscar Villareal, Dave Borkowski, Brian Moehler, Tim Byrdak and Wesley Wright.
An experienced middle-of-the-road group on the whole except the youngster Wright who shows a fair bit of promise but has yet to really show anything beyond AA and needs another season of, well, seasoning.
Byrdak will likely be the one to head back to AAA when Rodriguez is re-activated returning to a 6-man bullpen.
The bullpen certainly isn't strong enough or deep enough to make up for the dreadful rotation so the Astros figure to see a lot of football scores this year.
Rough estimates for offense: 710 runs scored +/-36 and defense: 820 runs allowed +/-41.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 77-85
Medium: 69-93
Low: 62-100
Chacon and Rodriguez (before getting hurt) have gotten off to hot starts but there's really no reason to expect it to continue. This is going to be a long season.
Next: Milwaukee Brewers
Even so, the outfield corners with Carlos Lee in left and Hunter Pence in right, along with first baseman Lance Berkman provide a solid power core for the offense.
In centerfield Michael Bourn figures to be a glove-first guy but his speed could add an offensive weapon if he can get on base enough.
Miguel Tejada is declining somewhat at this stage of his career and seeing a lot more groundballs, but declining for him is still a plus bat for shortstop.
Next to him at second base is Kazuo Matsui who certainly hasn't been as sharp these past few years since coming to MLB either with his (previously slick) fielding or with his (previously impressive) bat.
Ty Wigginton is currently on the DL so Geoff Blum fills in as the primary starter at third for now. Blum is a useful bench guy for his ability to play (just about) the field at a lot of positions but his bat is a liability in the starting lineup. Once Wigginton returns they'll put up with his lead glove to bring the offensive production back to around average third base levels.
J.R Towles has taken over as the starting catcher pushing Brad Ausmus to the bench as his backup. Towles is still developing but should provide an acceptable bat whereas Ausmus has never really been able to hit but has gotten by by being an excellent defensive catcher. Those days are behind him now though and he's of dubious value even as a backup.
The rest of the bench consists of Darin Erstad and Jose Cruz as outfield reserves and Mark Loretta with Tomas Perez to cover the infield. Which is to say, nothing worth having anymore.
If Tejada stays the course then he could combine with Berkman, Pence and Lee to keep this offense from being terrible but there are too many black holes to expect it to be good.
The pitching immediately looks good with Roy Oswalt at the top. He's a guy that sometimes gets overlooked as one of the top pitchers in the game but he can match up with anybody out there.
Unfortunately for Houston it goes rapidly downhill from there.
Brandon Backe is the number two starter in designation but not ability. Backe's a good hitter for a pitcher and a good pitcher for a hitter. He's just not really good enough at either job to be starting in the league.
Shawn Chacon is back to being a starter despite a large body of evidence showing that he isn't any good at it.
Wandy Rodriguez as the fourth starter is the closest the Astros have to a second decent starter though he's currently out on the DL. The fifth spot is taken by Chris Sampson, a 30-year old AAAA player.
Unless they find a way to get Oswalt to pitch every night they're in a lot of trouble.
The bullpen seems a little better starting with closer Jose Valverde. Unless his slow start is a continuation of the odd trend of only pitching well in odd numbered years he should be reasonably solid.
Bridging between him and the starters are Doug Brocail, Geoff Geary, Oscar Villareal, Dave Borkowski, Brian Moehler, Tim Byrdak and Wesley Wright.
An experienced middle-of-the-road group on the whole except the youngster Wright who shows a fair bit of promise but has yet to really show anything beyond AA and needs another season of, well, seasoning.
Byrdak will likely be the one to head back to AAA when Rodriguez is re-activated returning to a 6-man bullpen.
The bullpen certainly isn't strong enough or deep enough to make up for the dreadful rotation so the Astros figure to see a lot of football scores this year.
Rough estimates for offense: 710 runs scored +/-36 and defense: 820 runs allowed +/-41.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 77-85
Medium: 69-93
Low: 62-100
Chacon and Rodriguez (before getting hurt) have gotten off to hot starts but there's really no reason to expect it to continue. This is going to be a long season.
Next: Milwaukee Brewers
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Cincinatti Reds
Years of sucking and the addition of Dusty Baker as manager have somehow not dampened the Reds enthusiasm and they've been seen as dark horse contenders by more than a few. Let's see what they've got.
Adam Dunn in left and Ken Griffey, Jr. in right both return to give decent offense from both spots. Griffey's age and injury history have taken a serious toll on his defensive ability (over-rated to begin with) but he is still an great hitter. Dunn's power and patience are more than enough to make up for his huge strikeout totals.
With Josh Hamilton moving on centerfield was up for grabs and late free agent signing Corey Patterson has settled into that role for the time being. Patterson's shown quite an improvement with his selectivity at the plate but it's hard to believe he'll be anything more than average.
It's more than likely at some point Jay Bruce will find his way up from the minors to displace Patterson.
The infield corners supply more offense with Edwin Encarnacion at third and 24-year old Joey Votto at first. This is Votto's first season but he should put of first baseman numbers straight away and next year he should be a real force. Encarnacion has a very good bat whilst not giving up anything with the glove.
With Alex Gonzalez sidelined with a knee injury, Jeff Keppinger has moved over to be the starting shortstop alongside Brandon Phillips at second. Both hit pretty well for middle infielders but especially with Keppinger out of his usual position they're fairly weak defensively.
Paul Bako behind the plate is a no-hit journeyman with his tenth team. His backup Javier Valentin is a much better hitter but Bako's experience and actual catching ability give him the slight edge for now.
The rest of the bench for now consists of Ryan Freel and Nate Hopper in the outfield (though Freel can cover the infield in a pinch too) with Juan Castro as the infield utility to guy and Scott Hatteberg backing up Votto at first.
Overall, the offense is pretty good and Bruce gives the possibility of it getting a little better still but the bench is a big dropoff. Not a lot of scope to deal with injuries if/when they come. (Yes, I'm looking at you Kenneth!)
The pitching has been a weakness generally in recent years but the Reds hope that changes this year starting with Aaron Harang back at the top of the rotation.
Harang is a good solid pitcher but sooner or later the park is going to catch up to him, you would think. Then again, he's been here a while now and somehow keeps on getting it done. He'll give up his share of homers but overall he should be a decent start to the rotation.
Bronson Arroyo in the second spot will probably see an uptick in his home run rate, though not as severely as his early-season stats are showing. Arroyo is probably no more than a #3 starter at best so a lot rests on their rookie Johnny Cueto.
Cueto is just 22 years old and has flown through the Reds' system. They hope he can bust out straight away but a more realistic expectation is for him to survive this year and grow into a big league role next year.
He's thrown less than 350 professional innings in the past 3 years since signing out of the Dominican Republic and ability aside, the Reds surely want to ease his innings up. (Then again, with Dusty managing him maybe he'll throw 150 pitches a night.)
Josh Fogg in the fourth spot has never been a good pitcher unless you count one decent AA season 8 years ago and isn't likely to suddenly become one now. That he has a job is a testament to how much Major League GMs like a known "name".
Another young kid, Edinson Volquez, fills out the last spot having come over from the Rangers in the Josh Hamilton deal. He's a decent talent and he should be serviceable enough but he's not yet polished enough to make up for the weaknesses elsewhere in the rotation.
With a weak staff a 7-man bullpen is a necessity for the Reds statring with closer Francisco Cordero.
David Weathers and Jared Burton behind him are serviceable enough but Jeremy Affeldt, Todd Coffey, Mike Lincoln and Kent Mercker(!) aren't going to inspire a lot of confidence.
Mercker is a perfect example of what being left-handed can do for a pitching career finding work at 40 after missing an entire year (for the sceond time) following Tommy John surgery.
The pitching is going to be something of a black hole again this year and the offense is going to need to work hard to make up for it.
Rough estimates for offense: 780 runs scored +/-39 and defense: 850 runs allowed +/-43.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 82-80
Medium: 74-88
Low: 66-96
Really, the optimism seems misplaced given the lack of depth or pitching. Still, seeing Cueto and Volquez along with Votto and (possibly) Bruce come up and develop at the Major League level should allow them to look forward to the future.
Next: Houston Astros
Adam Dunn in left and Ken Griffey, Jr. in right both return to give decent offense from both spots. Griffey's age and injury history have taken a serious toll on his defensive ability (over-rated to begin with) but he is still an great hitter. Dunn's power and patience are more than enough to make up for his huge strikeout totals.
With Josh Hamilton moving on centerfield was up for grabs and late free agent signing Corey Patterson has settled into that role for the time being. Patterson's shown quite an improvement with his selectivity at the plate but it's hard to believe he'll be anything more than average.
It's more than likely at some point Jay Bruce will find his way up from the minors to displace Patterson.
The infield corners supply more offense with Edwin Encarnacion at third and 24-year old Joey Votto at first. This is Votto's first season but he should put of first baseman numbers straight away and next year he should be a real force. Encarnacion has a very good bat whilst not giving up anything with the glove.
With Alex Gonzalez sidelined with a knee injury, Jeff Keppinger has moved over to be the starting shortstop alongside Brandon Phillips at second. Both hit pretty well for middle infielders but especially with Keppinger out of his usual position they're fairly weak defensively.
Paul Bako behind the plate is a no-hit journeyman with his tenth team. His backup Javier Valentin is a much better hitter but Bako's experience and actual catching ability give him the slight edge for now.
The rest of the bench for now consists of Ryan Freel and Nate Hopper in the outfield (though Freel can cover the infield in a pinch too) with Juan Castro as the infield utility to guy and Scott Hatteberg backing up Votto at first.
Overall, the offense is pretty good and Bruce gives the possibility of it getting a little better still but the bench is a big dropoff. Not a lot of scope to deal with injuries if/when they come. (Yes, I'm looking at you Kenneth!)
The pitching has been a weakness generally in recent years but the Reds hope that changes this year starting with Aaron Harang back at the top of the rotation.
Harang is a good solid pitcher but sooner or later the park is going to catch up to him, you would think. Then again, he's been here a while now and somehow keeps on getting it done. He'll give up his share of homers but overall he should be a decent start to the rotation.
Bronson Arroyo in the second spot will probably see an uptick in his home run rate, though not as severely as his early-season stats are showing. Arroyo is probably no more than a #3 starter at best so a lot rests on their rookie Johnny Cueto.
Cueto is just 22 years old and has flown through the Reds' system. They hope he can bust out straight away but a more realistic expectation is for him to survive this year and grow into a big league role next year.
He's thrown less than 350 professional innings in the past 3 years since signing out of the Dominican Republic and ability aside, the Reds surely want to ease his innings up. (Then again, with Dusty managing him maybe he'll throw 150 pitches a night.)
Josh Fogg in the fourth spot has never been a good pitcher unless you count one decent AA season 8 years ago and isn't likely to suddenly become one now. That he has a job is a testament to how much Major League GMs like a known "name".
Another young kid, Edinson Volquez, fills out the last spot having come over from the Rangers in the Josh Hamilton deal. He's a decent talent and he should be serviceable enough but he's not yet polished enough to make up for the weaknesses elsewhere in the rotation.
With a weak staff a 7-man bullpen is a necessity for the Reds statring with closer Francisco Cordero.
David Weathers and Jared Burton behind him are serviceable enough but Jeremy Affeldt, Todd Coffey, Mike Lincoln and Kent Mercker(!) aren't going to inspire a lot of confidence.
Mercker is a perfect example of what being left-handed can do for a pitching career finding work at 40 after missing an entire year (for the sceond time) following Tommy John surgery.
The pitching is going to be something of a black hole again this year and the offense is going to need to work hard to make up for it.
Rough estimates for offense: 780 runs scored +/-39 and defense: 850 runs allowed +/-43.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 82-80
Medium: 74-88
Low: 66-96
Really, the optimism seems misplaced given the lack of depth or pitching. Still, seeing Cueto and Volquez along with Votto and (possibly) Bruce come up and develop at the Major League level should allow them to look forward to the future.
Next: Houston Astros
Friday, April 18, 2008
Chicago Cubs
Well, I need to crack on with the National League since we're about 10% through the season already.
First off is the NL Central starting with the Cubs. (Full disclosure: For those who don't know, I am a Cubs fan for my many sins.)
I thought I'd take an alternative tack from the mainstream sites with the Cubbies and look at their current roster instead of what they have done (or failed to do) over the last 100 years.
Alfonso Soriano returns in leftfield through for now his strained calf has put him on the DL to be replaced by Eric Patterson. Felix Pie and Reed Johnson will split time centerfield and new import Kosuke Fukudome.
Once Soriano returns, he and Fukudome should more than make up for the growing pains of Pie at the plate to make this an above average unit with the bats. In the field this is an extremely strong defensive unit.
With Soriano out though, Mark DeRosa will likely cover leftfield for the most part backed up by Patterson, weakening the defense a little and causing a significant drop in offense for the team.
DeRosa would otherwise be the starting second baseman so moving him to cover left makes Mike Fontenot an everyday player in his absence. Ryan Theriot is the double play partner at short and the corners are managed by Derrek Lee at first and Aramis Ramirez at third.
Both DeRosa and Fontenot are adequate hitters for second basemen though Theriot is fairly weak but tries to make up for it with a good running game.
Lee looks to have finally recovered fully from the broken wrist he suffered in 2006 which seemed to sap his power ("only" 22 home runs last year) and Aramis Ramirez is one of the top three hitting NL third basemen.
The defense is adequate but nothing special all the way around the diamond including catcher Geovany Soto who is another good asset at the plate.
Depth isn't great, however. Whichever of Johnson and Pie isn't playing puts a decent guy on the bench but the rest is shaky.
Aside from Patterson, who can backup at second as well as the outfield, there's Ronny Cedeno and Daryle Ward neither of whom are going to be mistaken for good hitters.
Henry Blanco is the backup catcher and is excellent defensively. Anything he does with the bat is just a bonus and certainly a big dropoff from Soto.
Overall, this offense looks really good with Soriano in it, but injuries could really have a big effect considering some of the replacement options.
The pitching staff starts off well with Carlos Zambrano heading the rotation. Z is a huge presence (in every sense) and a genuine top of the rotation guy coming off his worst season. Worst season is a relative term as he still posted his typical 200+ innings (5 straight years) of decent ball.
Ted Lilly and Rich Hill in the second and third spots, by contrast, pitched above themselves last year and there should be some regression though Hill should also continue to improve his underlying ability and offset much of that.
The three of them should make for a pretty tough group and will need to since Ryan Dempster and Jason Marquis fill out the rest of the rotation.
Dempster isn't horrible though for the back end of the staff but really he wasn't great in a relief role and expecting him to step his innings back up to starting levels and stay close to mediocre is pushing it.
Marquis isn't really much good except in an "innings-eating" capacity. If he can not suck too badly that has its use from a fifth starter.
Still, seeing those two starting whilst a much better option in Sean Marshall sits barely used in the bullpen (after starting the season at AAA) seems ridiculous. As a Cubs fan, it's sucks.
In the 'pen with Marshall (who replaced Carmen Pigniatello from the Opening Day roster) are Jon Lieber - who has proved invaluable in the long man role after a bunch of extra-innings games - Kevin Hart, Michael Wuertz, Bobby Howry, Carlos Marmol and closer Kerry Wood.
Scott Eyre is currently on the DL with elbow inflammation and will add an extra lefty to the relief corps when he returns, probably in a couple of weeks.
What the bullpen lacks in a genuine top quality reliever (though Marmol's close) it makes up for in a depth of decent arms.
Assuming the Cubs don't do something silly like pull Hill from the rotation for Lieber after a small sample size struggle, the pitching staff looks pretty reasonable and switching Marshall and Dempster would move it up another notch.
Forget 100 years, for me it's only been 29 years of watching the Cubs lose (either prodigiously or at just the wrong moment) and I try each season to downplay whatever sentiments of hope there may be so I don't get crushed again but it's hard not to look at this as being a decent team.
Rough estimates for offense: 830 runs scored +/-42 and defense: 750 runs allowed +/-38.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 97-65
Medium: 89-73
Low: 81-81
Decent pitching, good hitting, solid defense. This should be a good team. God help me.
First off is the NL Central starting with the Cubs. (Full disclosure: For those who don't know, I am a Cubs fan for my many sins.)
I thought I'd take an alternative tack from the mainstream sites with the Cubbies and look at their current roster instead of what they have done (or failed to do) over the last 100 years.
Alfonso Soriano returns in leftfield through for now his strained calf has put him on the DL to be replaced by Eric Patterson. Felix Pie and Reed Johnson will split time centerfield and new import Kosuke Fukudome.
Once Soriano returns, he and Fukudome should more than make up for the growing pains of Pie at the plate to make this an above average unit with the bats. In the field this is an extremely strong defensive unit.
With Soriano out though, Mark DeRosa will likely cover leftfield for the most part backed up by Patterson, weakening the defense a little and causing a significant drop in offense for the team.
DeRosa would otherwise be the starting second baseman so moving him to cover left makes Mike Fontenot an everyday player in his absence. Ryan Theriot is the double play partner at short and the corners are managed by Derrek Lee at first and Aramis Ramirez at third.
Both DeRosa and Fontenot are adequate hitters for second basemen though Theriot is fairly weak but tries to make up for it with a good running game.
Lee looks to have finally recovered fully from the broken wrist he suffered in 2006 which seemed to sap his power ("only" 22 home runs last year) and Aramis Ramirez is one of the top three hitting NL third basemen.
The defense is adequate but nothing special all the way around the diamond including catcher Geovany Soto who is another good asset at the plate.
Depth isn't great, however. Whichever of Johnson and Pie isn't playing puts a decent guy on the bench but the rest is shaky.
Aside from Patterson, who can backup at second as well as the outfield, there's Ronny Cedeno and Daryle Ward neither of whom are going to be mistaken for good hitters.
Henry Blanco is the backup catcher and is excellent defensively. Anything he does with the bat is just a bonus and certainly a big dropoff from Soto.
Overall, this offense looks really good with Soriano in it, but injuries could really have a big effect considering some of the replacement options.
The pitching staff starts off well with Carlos Zambrano heading the rotation. Z is a huge presence (in every sense) and a genuine top of the rotation guy coming off his worst season. Worst season is a relative term as he still posted his typical 200+ innings (5 straight years) of decent ball.
Ted Lilly and Rich Hill in the second and third spots, by contrast, pitched above themselves last year and there should be some regression though Hill should also continue to improve his underlying ability and offset much of that.
The three of them should make for a pretty tough group and will need to since Ryan Dempster and Jason Marquis fill out the rest of the rotation.
Dempster isn't horrible though for the back end of the staff but really he wasn't great in a relief role and expecting him to step his innings back up to starting levels and stay close to mediocre is pushing it.
Marquis isn't really much good except in an "innings-eating" capacity. If he can not suck too badly that has its use from a fifth starter.
Still, seeing those two starting whilst a much better option in Sean Marshall sits barely used in the bullpen (after starting the season at AAA) seems ridiculous. As a Cubs fan, it's sucks.
In the 'pen with Marshall (who replaced Carmen Pigniatello from the Opening Day roster) are Jon Lieber - who has proved invaluable in the long man role after a bunch of extra-innings games - Kevin Hart, Michael Wuertz, Bobby Howry, Carlos Marmol and closer Kerry Wood.
Scott Eyre is currently on the DL with elbow inflammation and will add an extra lefty to the relief corps when he returns, probably in a couple of weeks.
What the bullpen lacks in a genuine top quality reliever (though Marmol's close) it makes up for in a depth of decent arms.
Assuming the Cubs don't do something silly like pull Hill from the rotation for Lieber after a small sample size struggle, the pitching staff looks pretty reasonable and switching Marshall and Dempster would move it up another notch.
Forget 100 years, for me it's only been 29 years of watching the Cubs lose (either prodigiously or at just the wrong moment) and I try each season to downplay whatever sentiments of hope there may be so I don't get crushed again but it's hard not to look at this as being a decent team.
Rough estimates for offense: 830 runs scored +/-42 and defense: 750 runs allowed +/-38.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 97-65
Medium: 89-73
Low: 81-81
Decent pitching, good hitting, solid defense. This should be a good team. God help me.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
So, what's an average player? (Part 1 - The basics)
Since quite a few of the readers are either new to baseball or casual fans I'm going to try to make quite a few posts covering basic stuff, right down to glossaries and abbreviations for the baseball virgins.
Most of that can wait until I complete the NL previews but since (in the interests of brevity) I've referred a fair bit to players in terms of their relation to the average I figured it might be a good idea to give a general idea of what average is in MLB terms.
As the title gives away, this should be the first of a number of posts looking at the concept of average (and the related concept of replacement) players and is going to start very simplistically.
I'm only looking at hitting and pitching and using the bare bones "media-friendly" statistics.
For hitting I'll list extended batting lines in the form: Batting average/On-base percentage/Slugging percentage/OPS
(For the rookie readers these will get explained a bit later, but suffice to say the bigger the better
- lines like this are fairly commonplace, usually omitting the fourth which is simply On base added to Slugging)
For pitching it's ERA (the lower the better in this case).
These aren't necessarily the best stats for evaluation (the pitching ones are downright lousy at it) but for now I'll put them out for the sake of accessibility. Later posts will look at more useful evaluation tools.
First off, the overall Major league averages (all figures are from 2007 season):
Hitting: .268/.336/.423/.758
Pitching: 4.47
There's a small difference between the leagues, however, in large part due to the DH rule in the AL so:
AL Hitting: .271/.338/.423/.761
NL Hitting: .266/.334/.423/.757
AL Pitching: 4.52
NL Pitching: 4.44
The bigger differences, however, are between positions.
Obviously, some positions are tougher to play defensively so less players are able to do so. The toughest defensive positions have the smallest pool of players and therefore the weakest average hitting level.
So, broken down by league and position the averages look like:
AL C: .254 /.318/.395/.713
AL 1B: .267/.348/.443/.790
AL 2B: .284 /.339/.416/.755
AL 3B: .266/.334/.427/.761
AL SS: .269/.322/.391/.713
AL LF: .275/.335/.426/.760
AL CF: .272/.340/.414/.754
AL RF: .288/.359/.465/.824
AL DH: .268/.355/.447/.802
NL C: .257/.318/.394/.712
NL 1B: .284/.365/.481/.846
NL 2B: .272/.341/.418/.759
NL 3B: .280/.348/.456/.805
NL SS: .279/.337/.420/.758
NL LF: .278/.358/.478/.835
NL CF: .273/.336/.426/.762
NL RF: .275/.344/.442/.786
NL DH*: .274/.343/.444/.787
(*small sample size caveat applies since they only occur in road interleague games; also I've not bothered listing pitchers hitting abilities here since they're generally assumed to be next to non-existent - not true, but that's for another time)
Similarly, starting pitchers differ from relievers both in their ability to last more innings and (for many other reasons) the expected results level:
AL Starting Pitchers: 4.61
AL Relief Pitchers: 4.33
NL Starting Pitchers: 4.64
NL Relief Pitchers: 4 .08
For now, I just wanted the numbers there to help provide a frame of reference to make a little more sense of what I mean when I refer to a player as average or above-average or whatever. Specifically the differences between average hitters at various positions.
In the next installment I'll go into this a bit further looking at league and positional differences. We'll also look at why Batting Average and ERA are poor evaluating tools and examine better ways of judging who is good and who isn't from the numbers side (predominantly).
Data for this post taken from baseball-reference.com
Most of that can wait until I complete the NL previews but since (in the interests of brevity) I've referred a fair bit to players in terms of their relation to the average I figured it might be a good idea to give a general idea of what average is in MLB terms.
As the title gives away, this should be the first of a number of posts looking at the concept of average (and the related concept of replacement) players and is going to start very simplistically.
I'm only looking at hitting and pitching and using the bare bones "media-friendly" statistics.
For hitting I'll list extended batting lines in the form: Batting average/On-base percentage/Slugging percentage/OPS
(For the rookie readers these will get explained a bit later, but suffice to say the bigger the better
- lines like this are fairly commonplace, usually omitting the fourth which is simply On base added to Slugging)
For pitching it's ERA (the lower the better in this case).
These aren't necessarily the best stats for evaluation (the pitching ones are downright lousy at it) but for now I'll put them out for the sake of accessibility. Later posts will look at more useful evaluation tools.
First off, the overall Major league averages (all figures are from 2007 season):
Hitting: .268/.336/.423/.758
Pitching: 4.47
There's a small difference between the leagues, however, in large part due to the DH rule in the AL so:
AL Hitting: .271/.338/.423/.761
NL Hitting: .266/.334/.423/.757
AL Pitching: 4.52
NL Pitching: 4.44
The bigger differences, however, are between positions.
Obviously, some positions are tougher to play defensively so less players are able to do so. The toughest defensive positions have the smallest pool of players and therefore the weakest average hitting level.
So, broken down by league and position the averages look like:
AL C: .254 /.318/.395/.713
AL 1B: .267/.348/.443/.790
AL 2B: .284 /.339/.416/.755
AL 3B: .266/.334/.427/.761
AL SS: .269/.322/.391/.713
AL LF: .275/.335/.426/.760
AL CF: .272/.340/.414/.754
AL RF: .288/.359/.465/.824
AL DH: .268/.355/.447/.802
NL C: .257/.318/.394/.712
NL 1B: .284/.365/.481/.846
NL 2B: .272/.341/.418/.759
NL 3B: .280/.348/.456/.805
NL SS: .279/.337/.420/.758
NL LF: .278/.358/.478/.835
NL CF: .273/.336/.426/.762
NL RF: .275/.344/.442/.786
NL DH*: .274/.343/.444/.787
(*small sample size caveat applies since they only occur in road interleague games; also I've not bothered listing pitchers hitting abilities here since they're generally assumed to be next to non-existent - not true, but that's for another time)
Similarly, starting pitchers differ from relievers both in their ability to last more innings and (for many other reasons) the expected results level:
AL Starting Pitchers: 4.61
AL Relief Pitchers: 4.33
NL Starting Pitchers: 4.64
NL Relief Pitchers: 4 .08
For now, I just wanted the numbers there to help provide a frame of reference to make a little more sense of what I mean when I refer to a player as average or above-average or whatever. Specifically the differences between average hitters at various positions.
In the next installment I'll go into this a bit further looking at league and positional differences. We'll also look at why Batting Average and ERA are poor evaluating tools and examine better ways of judging who is good and who isn't from the numbers side (predominantly).
Data for this post taken from baseball-reference.com
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