Skipping over Opening Day for the moment since I want to finish the 30 teams before the season ends, it's on to the Orioles.
The forgotten team in the AL East behind the powerhouses of the Yankees and the Red Sox and the chic picks of the Blue Jays and Rays, what does Baltimore offer its success-starved fans who haven't since a winning season since 1997?
The Orioles are pretty much split up into a veteran infield and youth-filled outfield with Ramon Hernandez returning at catch, Kevan Millar remaining first base and Melvin Mora still manning the hot corner. Hernandez is the only one of the three closer to being league average with the others a fair tick below.
Brian Roberts also remains at second base... for now. Easily the best player in their infield he's almost certainly not staying much longer as it seems likely he (and the $14.3m he's owed over the next two years) will be heading to chicago sooner rather than later.
Switch-missing Luis Hernandez comes up after a year spent mostly in Double-A Bowie to represent the club's future at shortstop in the wake of the Miguel Tejada era. He's unlikely to fill Tejada's boots (or B12 syringe) any time soon but need presses him into everyday duty.
The youngsters filling the outfield represent much more strongly the club's potential future with Nick Markakis returning in right alongside Adam Jones - acquired (stolen?) from the Mariners in the Erik Bedard trade - and Luke Scott who came over from Houston as part of the Tejada deal.
Jones is absolutely ready for his shot and should prove a big hit with his bat and glove both of which are only going to get better over the next several years. This year should see him miss out on the Rookie of the Year award purely based on 9AB too many last year.
Luke Scott's been around a while but this will probably be his first season as a full-time starter all year. He's got the least potential of the outfield crew but should be a dependable good leftfield presence.
Markakis enters his third season as a veteran 24-year old and the team's best hitter. Jones may surpass him there and may do already with fielding ability included but right now he's the heart of this lineup.
At DH, experienced mediocrity reigns with the return of Aubrey Huff whose batting line would read pretty well if he could still play a passable third. (Not that I'm saying he ever played a passable third.)
Jay Payton, a starter last year, are relegated to the bench though he figures to see his share of plate appearances especially filling in for Scott, possibly in a full left-right platoon.
Guillermo Quiroz is a good defensive catcher to back up Hernandez and Scott Moore can cover all four corner positions.
Brandon Fahey rounds out the bench covering the middle infield positions though, given that he lost out on starting at short to poor-fielding, no-hitting Luis Hernandez it's fair to say depth around the cornerstone is not an Orioles' strength.
On the mound, four of last year's five main starters return: Daniel Cabrera, Steve Trachsel, Brian Burres and Opening Day starter Jeremy Guthrie. But not Bedard.
Guthrie's numbers last year looked great superficially but there's plenty of scar tissue underneath, cabrera and Burres are both medium to poor and Trachsel's a train wreck at this stage of his career.
Adam Loewen joins the rotation full-time this year after a brief (and moderately impressive) callup last season and is almost certainly the best starter (i.e. better than average) on the team.
Given that it's likely none of them logs a ton of innings this year they should put a heavy strain on their bullpen.
George Sherrill, another piece of the Bedard deal (not even mentioning the three minor league prospects Baltimore got), should fit in well as the closer. He won't get a lot of ESPN time, especially playing for the Orioles, but he's one of the game's top bullpen arms.
Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker are usually dependable for small numbers of quality innings and Greg Aquino should be passable too.
The rest of the bullpen comprises Randor Bierd, Dennis Sarfate and Matt Albers who should team up for an antacid commercial in Charm City.
Aside from putting out fires with gasoline they'll likely find themselves part of a revolving door of candidates to make the sixth and seventh inning a visiting team's dream.
Starting the year on the DL, Chris Ray and Danys Baez probably offer the best hope for mediocrity to salve the wounded middle relief.
Rough estimates for offense: 750 runs scored +/-38 and defense: 850 runs allowed +/-43.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 79-83
Medium: 71-91
Low: 63-99
The young guys coming up don't make up for an extra year of wear on the veterans and having Luis Hernandez in Tejada's place.
The starters struggles will mean too much of the bullpen and the numbers come out almost exactly like last year's team.
For Baltimore's sake, there's a decent chance this is transition as Jones gets himself established and Luis Hernandez is forced to learn very quickly and they can build on this as the Huff's and Mora's fade into history.
Next up: The defending champs - Boston
