Years of sucking and the addition of Dusty Baker as manager have somehow not dampened the Reds enthusiasm and they've been seen as dark horse contenders by more than a few. Let's see what they've got.
Adam Dunn in left and Ken Griffey, Jr. in right both return to give decent offense from both spots. Griffey's age and injury history have taken a serious toll on his defensive ability (over-rated to begin with) but he is still an great hitter. Dunn's power and patience are more than enough to make up for his huge strikeout totals.
With Josh Hamilton moving on centerfield was up for grabs and late free agent signing Corey Patterson has settled into that role for the time being. Patterson's shown quite an improvement with his selectivity at the plate but it's hard to believe he'll be anything more than average.
It's more than likely at some point Jay Bruce will find his way up from the minors to displace Patterson.
The infield corners supply more offense with Edwin Encarnacion at third and 24-year old Joey Votto at first. This is Votto's first season but he should put of first baseman numbers straight away and next year he should be a real force. Encarnacion has a very good bat whilst not giving up anything with the glove.
With Alex Gonzalez sidelined with a knee injury, Jeff Keppinger has moved over to be the starting shortstop alongside Brandon Phillips at second. Both hit pretty well for middle infielders but especially with Keppinger out of his usual position they're fairly weak defensively.
Paul Bako behind the plate is a no-hit journeyman with his tenth team. His backup Javier Valentin is a much better hitter but Bako's experience and actual catching ability give him the slight edge for now.
The rest of the bench for now consists of Ryan Freel and Nate Hopper in the outfield (though Freel can cover the infield in a pinch too) with Juan Castro as the infield utility to guy and Scott Hatteberg backing up Votto at first.
Overall, the offense is pretty good and Bruce gives the possibility of it getting a little better still but the bench is a big dropoff. Not a lot of scope to deal with injuries if/when they come. (Yes, I'm looking at you Kenneth!)
The pitching has been a weakness generally in recent years but the Reds hope that changes this year starting with Aaron Harang back at the top of the rotation.
Harang is a good solid pitcher but sooner or later the park is going to catch up to him, you would think. Then again, he's been here a while now and somehow keeps on getting it done. He'll give up his share of homers but overall he should be a decent start to the rotation.
Bronson Arroyo in the second spot will probably see an uptick in his home run rate, though not as severely as his early-season stats are showing. Arroyo is probably no more than a #3 starter at best so a lot rests on their rookie Johnny Cueto.
Cueto is just 22 years old and has flown through the Reds' system. They hope he can bust out straight away but a more realistic expectation is for him to survive this year and grow into a big league role next year.
He's thrown less than 350 professional innings in the past 3 years since signing out of the Dominican Republic and ability aside, the Reds surely want to ease his innings up. (Then again, with Dusty managing him maybe he'll throw 150 pitches a night.)
Josh Fogg in the fourth spot has never been a good pitcher unless you count one decent AA season 8 years ago and isn't likely to suddenly become one now. That he has a job is a testament to how much Major League GMs like a known "name".
Another young kid, Edinson Volquez, fills out the last spot having come over from the Rangers in the Josh Hamilton deal. He's a decent talent and he should be serviceable enough but he's not yet polished enough to make up for the weaknesses elsewhere in the rotation.
With a weak staff a 7-man bullpen is a necessity for the Reds statring with closer Francisco Cordero.
David Weathers and Jared Burton behind him are serviceable enough but Jeremy Affeldt, Todd Coffey, Mike Lincoln and Kent Mercker(!) aren't going to inspire a lot of confidence.
Mercker is a perfect example of what being left-handed can do for a pitching career finding work at 40 after missing an entire year (for the sceond time) following Tommy John surgery.
The pitching is going to be something of a black hole again this year and the offense is going to need to work hard to make up for it.
Rough estimates for offense: 780 runs scored +/-39 and defense: 850 runs allowed +/-43.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 82-80
Medium: 74-88
Low: 66-96
Really, the optimism seems misplaced given the lack of depth or pitching. Still, seeing Cueto and Volquez along with Votto and (possibly) Bruce come up and develop at the Major League level should allow them to look forward to the future.
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