Houston looks a lot different these days with Craig Biggio following Jeff Bagwell into retirement and (presumably) eventual enshrinement at the Hall of Fame.
Even so, the outfield corners with Carlos Lee in left and Hunter Pence in right, along with first baseman Lance Berkman provide a solid power core for the offense.
In centerfield Michael Bourn figures to be a glove-first guy but his speed could add an offensive weapon if he can get on base enough.
Miguel Tejada is declining somewhat at this stage of his career and seeing a lot more groundballs, but declining for him is still a plus bat for shortstop.
Next to him at second base is Kazuo Matsui who certainly hasn't been as sharp these past few years since coming to MLB either with his (previously slick) fielding or with his (previously impressive) bat.
Ty Wigginton is currently on the DL so Geoff Blum fills in as the primary starter at third for now. Blum is a useful bench guy for his ability to play (just about) the field at a lot of positions but his bat is a liability in the starting lineup. Once Wigginton returns they'll put up with his lead glove to bring the offensive production back to around average third base levels.
J.R Towles has taken over as the starting catcher pushing Brad Ausmus to the bench as his backup. Towles is still developing but should provide an acceptable bat whereas Ausmus has never really been able to hit but has gotten by by being an excellent defensive catcher. Those days are behind him now though and he's of dubious value even as a backup.
The rest of the bench consists of Darin Erstad and Jose Cruz as outfield reserves and Mark Loretta with Tomas Perez to cover the infield. Which is to say, nothing worth having anymore.
If Tejada stays the course then he could combine with Berkman, Pence and Lee to keep this offense from being terrible but there are too many black holes to expect it to be good.
The pitching immediately looks good with Roy Oswalt at the top. He's a guy that sometimes gets overlooked as one of the top pitchers in the game but he can match up with anybody out there.
Unfortunately for Houston it goes rapidly downhill from there.
Brandon Backe is the number two starter in designation but not ability. Backe's a good hitter for a pitcher and a good pitcher for a hitter. He's just not really good enough at either job to be starting in the league.
Shawn Chacon is back to being a starter despite a large body of evidence showing that he isn't any good at it.
Wandy Rodriguez as the fourth starter is the closest the Astros have to a second decent starter though he's currently out on the DL. The fifth spot is taken by Chris Sampson, a 30-year old AAAA player.
Unless they find a way to get Oswalt to pitch every night they're in a lot of trouble.
The bullpen seems a little better starting with closer Jose Valverde. Unless his slow start is a continuation of the odd trend of only pitching well in odd numbered years he should be reasonably solid.
Bridging between him and the starters are Doug Brocail, Geoff Geary, Oscar Villareal, Dave Borkowski, Brian Moehler, Tim Byrdak and Wesley Wright.
An experienced middle-of-the-road group on the whole except the youngster Wright who shows a fair bit of promise but has yet to really show anything beyond AA and needs another season of, well, seasoning.
Byrdak will likely be the one to head back to AAA when Rodriguez is re-activated returning to a 6-man bullpen.
The bullpen certainly isn't strong enough or deep enough to make up for the dreadful rotation so the Astros figure to see a lot of football scores this year.
Rough estimates for offense: 710 runs scored +/-36 and defense: 820 runs allowed +/-41.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 77-85
Medium: 69-93
Low: 62-100
Chacon and Rodriguez (before getting hurt) have gotten off to hot starts but there's really no reason to expect it to continue. This is going to be a long season.
Next: Milwaukee Brewers
