Well, I need to crack on with the National League since we're about 10% through the season already.
First off is the NL Central starting with the Cubs. (Full disclosure: For those who don't know, I am a Cubs fan for my many sins.)
I thought I'd take an alternative tack from the mainstream sites with the Cubbies and look at their current roster instead of what they have done (or failed to do) over the last 100 years.
Alfonso Soriano returns in leftfield through for now his strained calf has put him on the DL to be replaced by Eric Patterson. Felix Pie and Reed Johnson will split time centerfield and new import Kosuke Fukudome.
Once Soriano returns, he and Fukudome should more than make up for the growing pains of Pie at the plate to make this an above average unit with the bats. In the field this is an extremely strong defensive unit.
With Soriano out though, Mark DeRosa will likely cover leftfield for the most part backed up by Patterson, weakening the defense a little and causing a significant drop in offense for the team.
DeRosa would otherwise be the starting second baseman so moving him to cover left makes Mike Fontenot an everyday player in his absence. Ryan Theriot is the double play partner at short and the corners are managed by Derrek Lee at first and Aramis Ramirez at third.
Both DeRosa and Fontenot are adequate hitters for second basemen though Theriot is fairly weak but tries to make up for it with a good running game.
Lee looks to have finally recovered fully from the broken wrist he suffered in 2006 which seemed to sap his power ("only" 22 home runs last year) and Aramis Ramirez is one of the top three hitting NL third basemen.
The defense is adequate but nothing special all the way around the diamond including catcher Geovany Soto who is another good asset at the plate.
Depth isn't great, however. Whichever of Johnson and Pie isn't playing puts a decent guy on the bench but the rest is shaky.
Aside from Patterson, who can backup at second as well as the outfield, there's Ronny Cedeno and Daryle Ward neither of whom are going to be mistaken for good hitters.
Henry Blanco is the backup catcher and is excellent defensively. Anything he does with the bat is just a bonus and certainly a big dropoff from Soto.
Overall, this offense looks really good with Soriano in it, but injuries could really have a big effect considering some of the replacement options.
The pitching staff starts off well with Carlos Zambrano heading the rotation. Z is a huge presence (in every sense) and a genuine top of the rotation guy coming off his worst season. Worst season is a relative term as he still posted his typical 200+ innings (5 straight years) of decent ball.
Ted Lilly and Rich Hill in the second and third spots, by contrast, pitched above themselves last year and there should be some regression though Hill should also continue to improve his underlying ability and offset much of that.
The three of them should make for a pretty tough group and will need to since Ryan Dempster and Jason Marquis fill out the rest of the rotation.
Dempster isn't horrible though for the back end of the staff but really he wasn't great in a relief role and expecting him to step his innings back up to starting levels and stay close to mediocre is pushing it.
Marquis isn't really much good except in an "innings-eating" capacity. If he can not suck too badly that has its use from a fifth starter.
Still, seeing those two starting whilst a much better option in Sean Marshall sits barely used in the bullpen (after starting the season at AAA) seems ridiculous. As a Cubs fan, it's sucks.
In the 'pen with Marshall (who replaced Carmen Pigniatello from the Opening Day roster) are Jon Lieber - who has proved invaluable in the long man role after a bunch of extra-innings games - Kevin Hart, Michael Wuertz, Bobby Howry, Carlos Marmol and closer Kerry Wood.
Scott Eyre is currently on the DL with elbow inflammation and will add an extra lefty to the relief corps when he returns, probably in a couple of weeks.
What the bullpen lacks in a genuine top quality reliever (though Marmol's close) it makes up for in a depth of decent arms.
Assuming the Cubs don't do something silly like pull Hill from the rotation for Lieber after a small sample size struggle, the pitching staff looks pretty reasonable and switching Marshall and Dempster would move it up another notch.
Forget 100 years, for me it's only been 29 years of watching the Cubs lose (either prodigiously or at just the wrong moment) and I try each season to downplay whatever sentiments of hope there may be so I don't get crushed again but it's hard not to look at this as being a decent team.
Rough estimates for offense: 830 runs scored +/-42 and defense: 750 runs allowed +/-38.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 97-65
Medium: 89-73
Low: 81-81
Decent pitching, good hitting, solid defense. This should be a good team. God help me.
