Uh-oh. Opening Day and David DeJesus is the first in-season casualty.
No details yet on the severity but some kind of ankle injury has taken him out of the opener to be replaced until further notice by... Joey Gathright.
Hey, at least it's not raining there.
Monday, March 31, 2008
AL Central Predictions
Ok, so we've been through all the teams, but where will they all finish?
The Cleveland projection seemed a little high so I've come down on the low side and Detroit's a little low, but even after adjusting for that, you'll see I don't even have this being a particularly close race.
Detroit may be getting all the press for their big acquisitions, but the stand-pat Indians look like the class of the division to me.
Kansas haven't finished as high as 3rd since 2003, their last winning season but I'm buying into a dose of hope for the poor Royals.
77 wins for the Twins is probably about what is expected after their fire sale, it's next year and beyond that matters in the Twin Cities.
The White Sox just look plain bad. It's hard to believe that these guys won the Series in 2005 and with much of the same roster, but then, that essentially has been their problem. Regression and aging have been ignorred or scoffed at and I can't see this year being any kinder than the last to the Pale Hose.
AL Central All-Star Team
C - Joe Mauer
1B - Justin Morneau
2B - Placido Polanco
3B - Miguel Cabrera
SS - Jhonny Peralta
LF - Mark Teahen
CF - Grady Sizemore
RF - Magglio Ordoñez
DH - Travis Hafner
SP - Fausto Carmona
SP - C.C. Sabathia
SP - Francisco Liriano
SP - Zack Greinke
SP - Justin Verlander
Bench
Victor Martinez
Curtis Granderson
Carlos Guillen
Alex Gordon
Billy Butler
Bullpen
Joakim Soria
Joel Zumaya
Rafael Betancourt
Juan Rincon
Rafael Perez
Yasuhiko Yabuta
MVP?
Sizemore
Cy?
Carmona
ROY?
Yabuta, or, for those who prefer not to count highly experienced 34-year old Japanese players, I'll go with Denard Span even if he couldn't find a roster spot for Opening Day.
Next up: AL East, starting with Baltimore
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Cleveland | 95 | 67 |
| Detroit | 86 | 76 |
| Kansas City | 80 | 82 |
| Minnesota | 77 | 85 |
| Chicago | 73 | 89 |
The Cleveland projection seemed a little high so I've come down on the low side and Detroit's a little low, but even after adjusting for that, you'll see I don't even have this being a particularly close race.
Detroit may be getting all the press for their big acquisitions, but the stand-pat Indians look like the class of the division to me.
Kansas haven't finished as high as 3rd since 2003, their last winning season but I'm buying into a dose of hope for the poor Royals.
77 wins for the Twins is probably about what is expected after their fire sale, it's next year and beyond that matters in the Twin Cities.
The White Sox just look plain bad. It's hard to believe that these guys won the Series in 2005 and with much of the same roster, but then, that essentially has been their problem. Regression and aging have been ignorred or scoffed at and I can't see this year being any kinder than the last to the Pale Hose.
AL Central All-Star Team
C - Joe Mauer
1B - Justin Morneau
2B - Placido Polanco
3B - Miguel Cabrera
SS - Jhonny Peralta
LF - Mark Teahen
CF - Grady Sizemore
RF - Magglio Ordoñez
DH - Travis Hafner
SP - Fausto Carmona
SP - C.C. Sabathia
SP - Francisco Liriano
SP - Zack Greinke
SP - Justin Verlander
Bench
Victor Martinez
Curtis Granderson
Carlos Guillen
Alex Gordon
Billy Butler
Bullpen
Joakim Soria
Joel Zumaya
Rafael Betancourt
Juan Rincon
Rafael Perez
Yasuhiko Yabuta
MVP?
Sizemore
Cy?
Carmona
ROY?
Yabuta, or, for those who prefer not to count highly experienced 34-year old Japanese players, I'll go with Denard Span even if he couldn't find a roster spot for Opening Day.
Next up: AL East, starting with Baltimore
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Minnesota Twins
To round off the AL Central, it's the Minnesota Twins. More or less a .500 team last year, so which way do they go?
On offense they say goodbye to "face of the franchise" Torii Hunter. 22-year old prospect, Carlos Gomez will take over duties in centerfield and should maintain the defensive level but he's not even close to ready to face Major League pitching.
Gomez beat out the slightly-more-ready Denard Span for the job, presumably on the strength of the Twins feeling it would be embarrassing to have traded away the best pitcher in baseball without getting at least one ML-ready player in return.
Span will start the year at Triple-A Rochester but it will be no surprise to see him up to take over from Gomez before the end of May.
Another 22-year old will start beside him in leftfield as Delmon Young has come over from Tampa Bay in return for the twins second best pitcher Matt Garza. Young, at least, is entering his 3rd Major League season and belongs though he's still got a way to go to fulfil his potential.
Michael Cuddyer in right completes the outfield unspectacularly but competently with Craig Monroe providing backup.
The infield looks better with Joe Mauer still behind the plate and Justin Morneau at first. Unfortunately, the offense just drops off after that with guys like Cuddyer and DH Jason Kubel the next best they have to offer.
Brendan Harris at second - who also came over in the Garza deal - is ok, but Adam Everett has for (two) obvious reasons a strong reputation as a glove first player and journeyman Mike Lamb at third isn't good enough with the bat to make up his defensive shortcomings (though having Everett next to him - just like the last four years in Houston - helps hide some of it). Still, anything that gets Nick Punto out of the lineup has to be a plus.
Besides Monroe, the bench consists of Mike Redmond, a very capable backup catcher, rookie infielder Matt Tolbert and somehow Punto has survived on the roster.
The pitching, obviously looks rather different with the departures of Santana and Garza who are not easily replaced. (Not to mention Carlos Silva who was their third best pitcher.)
87 year old Livan Hernandez will be the Opening Day starter has failed only once - and by a single out in 1999 - to record 200+ innings since his first full season with the Marlins in 1998 so he's got that going for him, which is nice. Unfortunately, those 200 innings are unlikely to be anything like "ace"-worthy. If he can keep his ERA under 5.00 it will be something of a surprise but one the Twins will need to keep things from getting really ugly.
The beautifully named Boof Bonser appears to be the nominal #2 but should put up numbers much the same as Hernandez over a few less innings.
The third starter Nick Blackburn may be a touch better than that but not much if at all.
So, the best starters on the team are supposedly their four and five guys: Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey who could both be somewhere around, or just above, league average.
On the plus side, Francisco Liriano, who missed all of last year following Tommy John surgery will be up with the club after a couple of minor league starts to finish getting his arm ready. He'll probably bump Blackburn back to Rochester and Bonser and co. down a spot.
Presumably, the Twins will take things easy with Liriano unless they find themselves in the hunt late in the year, but if they can get 140 quality innings from him they should be pleased heading to 2009. (And less embarrassed in 2008.)
The bullpen is a lot better than the rotation with closer Joe Nathan joined by Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Dennys Reyes and Brian Bass.
Bass aside, everyone of them is above average with the only real weakness the lack of any lefthanders after Reyes.
Rough estimates for offense: 690 runs scored +/-35 and defense: 760 runs allowed +/-38.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 81-81
Medium: 73-89
Low: 65-97
Ultimately, the trades of Santana and Garza pretty much signalled this as a rebuilding year so success will be measuerd more in progress from guys like Liriano and especially the guys who came in those trade packages like Gomez than it will be measured in wins.
Next up: A quick round up of the AL Central - Standings predictions and the like, then we'll move onto the AL East, starting with Baltimore.
On offense they say goodbye to "face of the franchise" Torii Hunter. 22-year old prospect, Carlos Gomez will take over duties in centerfield and should maintain the defensive level but he's not even close to ready to face Major League pitching.
Gomez beat out the slightly-more-ready Denard Span for the job, presumably on the strength of the Twins feeling it would be embarrassing to have traded away the best pitcher in baseball without getting at least one ML-ready player in return.
Span will start the year at Triple-A Rochester but it will be no surprise to see him up to take over from Gomez before the end of May.
Another 22-year old will start beside him in leftfield as Delmon Young has come over from Tampa Bay in return for the twins second best pitcher Matt Garza. Young, at least, is entering his 3rd Major League season and belongs though he's still got a way to go to fulfil his potential.
Michael Cuddyer in right completes the outfield unspectacularly but competently with Craig Monroe providing backup.
The infield looks better with Joe Mauer still behind the plate and Justin Morneau at first. Unfortunately, the offense just drops off after that with guys like Cuddyer and DH Jason Kubel the next best they have to offer.
Brendan Harris at second - who also came over in the Garza deal - is ok, but Adam Everett has for (two) obvious reasons a strong reputation as a glove first player and journeyman Mike Lamb at third isn't good enough with the bat to make up his defensive shortcomings (though having Everett next to him - just like the last four years in Houston - helps hide some of it). Still, anything that gets Nick Punto out of the lineup has to be a plus.
Besides Monroe, the bench consists of Mike Redmond, a very capable backup catcher, rookie infielder Matt Tolbert and somehow Punto has survived on the roster.
The pitching, obviously looks rather different with the departures of Santana and Garza who are not easily replaced. (Not to mention Carlos Silva who was their third best pitcher.)
87 year old Livan Hernandez will be the Opening Day starter has failed only once - and by a single out in 1999 - to record 200+ innings since his first full season with the Marlins in 1998 so he's got that going for him, which is nice. Unfortunately, those 200 innings are unlikely to be anything like "ace"-worthy. If he can keep his ERA under 5.00 it will be something of a surprise but one the Twins will need to keep things from getting really ugly.
The beautifully named Boof Bonser appears to be the nominal #2 but should put up numbers much the same as Hernandez over a few less innings.
The third starter Nick Blackburn may be a touch better than that but not much if at all.
So, the best starters on the team are supposedly their four and five guys: Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey who could both be somewhere around, or just above, league average.
On the plus side, Francisco Liriano, who missed all of last year following Tommy John surgery will be up with the club after a couple of minor league starts to finish getting his arm ready. He'll probably bump Blackburn back to Rochester and Bonser and co. down a spot.
Presumably, the Twins will take things easy with Liriano unless they find themselves in the hunt late in the year, but if they can get 140 quality innings from him they should be pleased heading to 2009. (And less embarrassed in 2008.)
The bullpen is a lot better than the rotation with closer Joe Nathan joined by Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Dennys Reyes and Brian Bass.
Bass aside, everyone of them is above average with the only real weakness the lack of any lefthanders after Reyes.
Rough estimates for offense: 690 runs scored +/-35 and defense: 760 runs allowed +/-38.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 81-81
Medium: 73-89
Low: 65-97
Ultimately, the trades of Santana and Garza pretty much signalled this as a rebuilding year so success will be measuerd more in progress from guys like Liriano and especially the guys who came in those trade packages like Gomez than it will be measured in wins.
Next up: A quick round up of the AL Central - Standings predictions and the like, then we'll move onto the AL East, starting with Baltimore.
Kansas City Royals
It's been nearly 20 years and 8 managers since the Royals won even 85 games, so is there any reason to think that Kansas are giong to return to the glory days of Brett and Bret?
Well, no, not really, but there is hope on the horizon at least which is more than Royals' fans have been able to reasonably say for some time.
After his first year at the helm, Dayton Moore has turned over a lot of players and seemingly has some sort of organised plan for the team.
So, why the optimism? Rather than plugging in washed out veteran after washed out veteran to try (and fail) to avoid 100 losses as has seemed to be the plan before, Moore has finally looked to grow his young talent base (and after so many early draft picks, you'd expect a decent farm, right?)
Alex Gordon at third is the first big reason. He was a completely different hitter in the second half of the season and if that's any sign of his growth then there's reason for optimism.
Billy Butler should see a full season at DH as the Royals seem to have finally grasped that he just isn't cut out for playing defense but there's no doubt that he can hit.
John Buck should finally get a chance to be the every day catcher with Miguel Olivo providing the backup role. Olivo hits extremely well against lefties, although not an ideal platoon snice Buck hits better against them too, unsurprisingly, but handled right they could be a bit better than average between them. Olivo starts the season suspended so career minor-leaguer Matt Tupman will be up for a few days to back up Buck and may get one start, but he will almost certainly be sent back down once Olivo returns.
David DeJesus probably doesn't count as a youngster, as such, anymore but he brings a solid bat and defense to centerfield whilst Mark Teahen move position for the second year in a row going from right to left field.
Tony Pena, Jr. still can't hit but makes up for most of those shortcomings with his glove at shortstop.
Free agent signing Jose Guillen in right and Mark Grudzielanek at second provide the veteran guidance, at least, until Alberto Callaspo claims Grudz' job.
Journeyman Ross Gload fills out the lineup at first without any great distinction with bat or glove and overall the Royals should be only slightly below average but with plenty of possibility for breakout seasons.
Pitching is even more intriguing as the Royals enter year 2 of the Gil Meche era.
Meche was a little fortunate last year and his hot start made it look even better but, in reality, there's no reason to think Meche can't at least come close to duplicating 2007.
More intriguing is pitcher-cum-sabermetrician Brian Bannister who doesn't strike out enough batters, especially for a flyball pitcher but had an unusually low home run per flyball ratio and an unfeasibly low BABIP.
Research shows that, in general, neither of these are sustainable but, as Bannister has discussed himself, he is also aware of the research and is doing more of his own looking for ways that things can be "beaten".
It's extremely unlikely that he'll escape some regression to the mean, but his minor league track record suggests he could improve his K-rate to help offset some of that. If his research bears fruit that he's able to put into practice then maybe, just maybe he can keep up what he's been doing.
Still, KC fans will probably be paying more attention still to Zack Greinke who opens the season as nominally the third starter but could easily be the staff ace by the time the All-Star Game rolls around. Greinke has great stuff and great control and it's easy to forget he's only 24. If everything comes together for Greinke the Royals' optimism for the coming years would be well justified.
Brett Tomko is a serviceable veteran fourth starter and the final rotation spot goes to John Bale who hasn't started since 2004 for the Carp in Japan. He converted to relief for his last two seasons there and did the same for the Royals last year but he's shown (albeit in NPB) that he's capable of holding his own as a starter and is probably better than most 5th starters in the league.
Joakim Soria proved to be an excellent Rule 5 pickup last year and should have an opportunity to prove he's one of the best closer's in baseball right now.
Getting the ball from the starters to Soria will be Jimmy Gobble and Ron Mahay from the left side and Leo Nunez, Ramon Ramirez and Yasuhiko Yabuta from the right. Yabuta is in his first Major League season but has plenty experience from his time in NPB as a setup man with the Marines with ERAs ranging from 2.62 to 3.07 over the past four years.
If Yabuta transitions well to the US he and Gobble will probably provide the primary setup role with the others filling in in middle relief.
Once Olivo's suspension is lifted and presumably Tupman is returned to the minors the Royals may elect to go with a 12th pitcher in which case long-man Joel Peralta could join this group, otherwise Ryan Shealy would seem to be the top position playing candidate to push Gload at first.
A lot depends on the growth of the younger players and whether Greinke can finally breakout as a top flight starter but, for the first time in many years, there can be optimism for the Royals.
Rough estimates for offense: 760 runs scored +/-38 and defense: 800 runs allowed +/-40.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 85-77
Medium: 77-85
Low: 69-93
Ok, so 85 wins is still the high end, but maybe the Royals can give themselves something to build on for next year.
Next up: Minnesota
Well, no, not really, but there is hope on the horizon at least which is more than Royals' fans have been able to reasonably say for some time.
After his first year at the helm, Dayton Moore has turned over a lot of players and seemingly has some sort of organised plan for the team.
So, why the optimism? Rather than plugging in washed out veteran after washed out veteran to try (and fail) to avoid 100 losses as has seemed to be the plan before, Moore has finally looked to grow his young talent base (and after so many early draft picks, you'd expect a decent farm, right?)
Alex Gordon at third is the first big reason. He was a completely different hitter in the second half of the season and if that's any sign of his growth then there's reason for optimism.
Billy Butler should see a full season at DH as the Royals seem to have finally grasped that he just isn't cut out for playing defense but there's no doubt that he can hit.
John Buck should finally get a chance to be the every day catcher with Miguel Olivo providing the backup role. Olivo hits extremely well against lefties, although not an ideal platoon snice Buck hits better against them too, unsurprisingly, but handled right they could be a bit better than average between them. Olivo starts the season suspended so career minor-leaguer Matt Tupman will be up for a few days to back up Buck and may get one start, but he will almost certainly be sent back down once Olivo returns.
David DeJesus probably doesn't count as a youngster, as such, anymore but he brings a solid bat and defense to centerfield whilst Mark Teahen move position for the second year in a row going from right to left field.
Tony Pena, Jr. still can't hit but makes up for most of those shortcomings with his glove at shortstop.
Free agent signing Jose Guillen in right and Mark Grudzielanek at second provide the veteran guidance, at least, until Alberto Callaspo claims Grudz' job.
Journeyman Ross Gload fills out the lineup at first without any great distinction with bat or glove and overall the Royals should be only slightly below average but with plenty of possibility for breakout seasons.
Pitching is even more intriguing as the Royals enter year 2 of the Gil Meche era.
Meche was a little fortunate last year and his hot start made it look even better but, in reality, there's no reason to think Meche can't at least come close to duplicating 2007.
More intriguing is pitcher-cum-sabermetrician Brian Bannister who doesn't strike out enough batters, especially for a flyball pitcher but had an unusually low home run per flyball ratio and an unfeasibly low BABIP.
Research shows that, in general, neither of these are sustainable but, as Bannister has discussed himself, he is also aware of the research and is doing more of his own looking for ways that things can be "beaten".
It's extremely unlikely that he'll escape some regression to the mean, but his minor league track record suggests he could improve his K-rate to help offset some of that. If his research bears fruit that he's able to put into practice then maybe, just maybe he can keep up what he's been doing.
Still, KC fans will probably be paying more attention still to Zack Greinke who opens the season as nominally the third starter but could easily be the staff ace by the time the All-Star Game rolls around. Greinke has great stuff and great control and it's easy to forget he's only 24. If everything comes together for Greinke the Royals' optimism for the coming years would be well justified.
Brett Tomko is a serviceable veteran fourth starter and the final rotation spot goes to John Bale who hasn't started since 2004 for the Carp in Japan. He converted to relief for his last two seasons there and did the same for the Royals last year but he's shown (albeit in NPB) that he's capable of holding his own as a starter and is probably better than most 5th starters in the league.
Joakim Soria proved to be an excellent Rule 5 pickup last year and should have an opportunity to prove he's one of the best closer's in baseball right now.
Getting the ball from the starters to Soria will be Jimmy Gobble and Ron Mahay from the left side and Leo Nunez, Ramon Ramirez and Yasuhiko Yabuta from the right. Yabuta is in his first Major League season but has plenty experience from his time in NPB as a setup man with the Marines with ERAs ranging from 2.62 to 3.07 over the past four years.
If Yabuta transitions well to the US he and Gobble will probably provide the primary setup role with the others filling in in middle relief.
Once Olivo's suspension is lifted and presumably Tupman is returned to the minors the Royals may elect to go with a 12th pitcher in which case long-man Joel Peralta could join this group, otherwise Ryan Shealy would seem to be the top position playing candidate to push Gload at first.
A lot depends on the growth of the younger players and whether Greinke can finally breakout as a top flight starter but, for the first time in many years, there can be optimism for the Royals.
Rough estimates for offense: 760 runs scored +/-38 and defense: 800 runs allowed +/-40.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 85-77
Medium: 77-85
Low: 69-93
Ok, so 85 wins is still the high end, but maybe the Royals can give themselves something to build on for next year.
Next up: Minnesota
Detroit Tigers
A very busy off-season seems to have thrust Detroit into the role of favourites in their division and, in many eyes, the league.
The Tigers paid steep prices but they added to an already potent offense (2nd in the AL for runs scored in 2007) by bringing over Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins to man third and Edgar Renteria from Atlanta to play short.
Renteria's arrival bumps Carlos Guillen over to first base where his bat should provide a significant upgrade over the departing Sean Casey.
Placido Polanco remains at second after his well-deserved All-Star performance last year and Ivan Rodriguez will provide a veteran presence (if little else at this stage) behind the plate.
The moves make Brandon Inge the odd man out with Cabrera taking his job. Inge has been working out in the outfield and at catcher again and should see time off as a backup all over the place. Barring an injury pressing him into everyday use, however, he is very likely to be traded before the deadline, assuming the Tigers pick up some of his salary.
Still, to open the season those injuries put him in the lineup. Vance Wilson will open the season on the DL, making Inge the first choice of backup catcher, and with Curtis Granderson missing the first week or two with a broken finger, courtesy of a Travis Blackley fastball, Inge has become the Opening Day starter at centerfield.
Injuries aside, Granderson should be the mainstay at center with Magglio Ordoñez in right looking to duplicate last year's near-MVP season. Unfortunately, whilst Ordoñez will almost certainly have a fine season, he's far from likely to come close to repeating last year. Granderson also looks likely to decline a little though (health-permitting) he should still be one of the top centerfield hitters in the game.
Jacque Jones is another new arrival via trade and is expected to start in leftfield, but he should only provide a small upgrade on the at-bats wasted on Craig Monroe last year, at least until they start platooning him with Marcus Thames.
Gary Sheffield provides another big bat at DH though not as big as in year's past. Sheff turns 40 shortly after this season ends and all those years are starting to take a toll. His bat is still good, but about average for a designated hitter. He's no longer a big plus point to the offense but he doesn't hurt them either.
Ryan Raburn and Ramon Santiago round out the bench providing defensive cover in the outfield and infield respectively, though Raburn could well find himself starting in leftfield before the year ends.
Defensively the infield is split in two: the right side of Guillen and Polanco should be excellent but the left side is a big hole. Cabrera is a butcher at third and Renteria is living on reputation these days having very little range though what he can reach he still deals with effectively.
The outfield is probably about average defensively though its range will suffer until Granderson's return.
The Tigers' pitching staff also welcomes a new member with Dontrelle Willis coming over from the Marlins in the Cabrera trade.
Willis should slot in as the #5 starter behind Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson to start the season.
All four of those guys should be better than the league average starter with Verlander well above. What they aren't likely to do is post 200+ innings apiece.
Rogers spent little time on the mound last year with separate injuries to his pitching shoulder and elbow and at 43 has to be considered a question mark to make it through the season unscathed.
Oddly, as the 5th starter Willis is probably the most likely to log a high innings total but only if his performance can keep him on the mound. His performance has been in decline as hitters have grown accustomed to his awkward delivery and moving from the NL to the AL is usually accompanied by a hefty rise in ERA. Unless the league change also gives him back some of that advantage he's lost he could well see his performance hovering around replacement level.
The bullpen starts as a big question with Joel Zumaya unlikely to join the club until at least the All-Star break and Fernando Rodney likely to miss most of the first month.
In their absence, another 40-something, Todd Jones, will hold down the closer role. Beyond Jones and the equally unexciting Bobby Seay and Jason Grilli there's little depth in the Tigers' 'pen.
Detroit look to go with a 12-man staff filling out the roster with Zach Miner, Denny Bautista, Yorman Bazardo and Aquilino Lopez, none of whom are going to inspire much confidence in skipper Jim Leyland.
Somehow, despite having a bunch of good starters, pitching looks to be the weakness that could come back to bite the Tigers. Unless Willis comes good, Rogers stays healthy and the others consistently get deep into games, too many poor relievers are going to post too many innings.
Given that most of the Tigers' minor league depth was used to acquire Cabrera, Willis, Renteria and Jacque Jones there's probably not much help coming from below either. Once Rodney, and - hopefully - later Zumaya return things will look a lot better, however.
Rough estimates for offense: 860 runs scored +/-43 and defense: 830 runs allowed +/-42.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 92-70
Medium: 84-78
Low: 76-86
A wildcard in this could be Brandon Inge but his contract makes it unlikely they can get the value they want for him. Still, if they can plug in a couple of decent bullpen arms to support their offense the high projection seems reasonable.
Still, this is a lot worse than the general wisdom seems to be but the lack of depth and overall weak defense will expose this team, I think.
Up next: The Royals
The Tigers paid steep prices but they added to an already potent offense (2nd in the AL for runs scored in 2007) by bringing over Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins to man third and Edgar Renteria from Atlanta to play short.
Renteria's arrival bumps Carlos Guillen over to first base where his bat should provide a significant upgrade over the departing Sean Casey.
Placido Polanco remains at second after his well-deserved All-Star performance last year and Ivan Rodriguez will provide a veteran presence (if little else at this stage) behind the plate.
The moves make Brandon Inge the odd man out with Cabrera taking his job. Inge has been working out in the outfield and at catcher again and should see time off as a backup all over the place. Barring an injury pressing him into everyday use, however, he is very likely to be traded before the deadline, assuming the Tigers pick up some of his salary.
Still, to open the season those injuries put him in the lineup. Vance Wilson will open the season on the DL, making Inge the first choice of backup catcher, and with Curtis Granderson missing the first week or two with a broken finger, courtesy of a Travis Blackley fastball, Inge has become the Opening Day starter at centerfield.
Injuries aside, Granderson should be the mainstay at center with Magglio Ordoñez in right looking to duplicate last year's near-MVP season. Unfortunately, whilst Ordoñez will almost certainly have a fine season, he's far from likely to come close to repeating last year. Granderson also looks likely to decline a little though (health-permitting) he should still be one of the top centerfield hitters in the game.
Jacque Jones is another new arrival via trade and is expected to start in leftfield, but he should only provide a small upgrade on the at-bats wasted on Craig Monroe last year, at least until they start platooning him with Marcus Thames.
Gary Sheffield provides another big bat at DH though not as big as in year's past. Sheff turns 40 shortly after this season ends and all those years are starting to take a toll. His bat is still good, but about average for a designated hitter. He's no longer a big plus point to the offense but he doesn't hurt them either.
Ryan Raburn and Ramon Santiago round out the bench providing defensive cover in the outfield and infield respectively, though Raburn could well find himself starting in leftfield before the year ends.
Defensively the infield is split in two: the right side of Guillen and Polanco should be excellent but the left side is a big hole. Cabrera is a butcher at third and Renteria is living on reputation these days having very little range though what he can reach he still deals with effectively.
The outfield is probably about average defensively though its range will suffer until Granderson's return.
The Tigers' pitching staff also welcomes a new member with Dontrelle Willis coming over from the Marlins in the Cabrera trade.
Willis should slot in as the #5 starter behind Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson to start the season.
All four of those guys should be better than the league average starter with Verlander well above. What they aren't likely to do is post 200+ innings apiece.
Rogers spent little time on the mound last year with separate injuries to his pitching shoulder and elbow and at 43 has to be considered a question mark to make it through the season unscathed.
Oddly, as the 5th starter Willis is probably the most likely to log a high innings total but only if his performance can keep him on the mound. His performance has been in decline as hitters have grown accustomed to his awkward delivery and moving from the NL to the AL is usually accompanied by a hefty rise in ERA. Unless the league change also gives him back some of that advantage he's lost he could well see his performance hovering around replacement level.
The bullpen starts as a big question with Joel Zumaya unlikely to join the club until at least the All-Star break and Fernando Rodney likely to miss most of the first month.
In their absence, another 40-something, Todd Jones, will hold down the closer role. Beyond Jones and the equally unexciting Bobby Seay and Jason Grilli there's little depth in the Tigers' 'pen.
Detroit look to go with a 12-man staff filling out the roster with Zach Miner, Denny Bautista, Yorman Bazardo and Aquilino Lopez, none of whom are going to inspire much confidence in skipper Jim Leyland.
Somehow, despite having a bunch of good starters, pitching looks to be the weakness that could come back to bite the Tigers. Unless Willis comes good, Rogers stays healthy and the others consistently get deep into games, too many poor relievers are going to post too many innings.
Given that most of the Tigers' minor league depth was used to acquire Cabrera, Willis, Renteria and Jacque Jones there's probably not much help coming from below either. Once Rodney, and - hopefully - later Zumaya return things will look a lot better, however.
Rough estimates for offense: 860 runs scored +/-43 and defense: 830 runs allowed +/-42.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 92-70
Medium: 84-78
Low: 76-86
A wildcard in this could be Brandon Inge but his contract makes it unlikely they can get the value they want for him. Still, if they can plug in a couple of decent bullpen arms to support their offense the high projection seems reasonable.
Still, this is a lot worse than the general wisdom seems to be but the lack of depth and overall weak defense will expose this team, I think.
Up next: The Royals
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Cleveland Indians
Up next are the defending AL Central champions, the Cleveland Indians who return mostly the same team who fell a single game short of taking the pennant last year.
The Indians offense should be strong again led by Grady Sizemore, Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner.
Sizemore and Martinez are particularly valuable providing premium offense at premium defensive positions. Martinez can probably expect to regress a little from last year's numbers but Hafner should similar bounce back after his sub-par (for him) 2007 campaign.
Franlin Gutierrez and David Dellucci will likely flank Sizemore in the outfield with Jason Michaels in the 4th outfielder role. Dellucci's bat is ok but Gutierrez' value lies more in his glove. Michaels will probably see most of his time pinch-hitting but could be a platoon partner for Dellucci.
Overall, Gutierrez' shortcomings with the bat probably bring the outfield down to about an average level overall offensively and the team would probably be best served by moving his glove into centerfield and pushing Sizemore to a corner.
The infield of Ryan Garko at first, Asdrubal Cabrera at second, Casey Blake at third and Jhonny Peralta at short (along with Martinez behind the plate) is a definite offensive strength. Garko can hold his own and Peralta is significantly above average at short. Blake is maybe a touch below average and Cabrera still has a way to go, but overall the Indians have a decent collection of hitting talent.
They also have reasonable depth with Shin-Soo Choo likely to start the season on the DL as he completes his recovery from Tommy John surgery but should quickly push for an outfield spot.
The Indians also have last year's Opening Day second baseman Josh Barfield working on his game in Buffalo, Andy Marte trying to take over the third base job from Blake and a very solid backup behind the plate in Kelly Shoppach.
Even if Hafner doesn't bounce back this team should have no trouble scoring runs, but if - as expected - he does, they could even improve on last year.
The rotation looks strong at the top as well, headed by reigning AL Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia entering his contract year. There will doubtless be plenty of off-the-field focus on whether he'll resign (and for just how much) but on the field there's no reason to think he won't post pretty much a repeat of last year's numbers, though possibly a few fewer innings.
C.C. seemed to run out of gas when the postseason rolled around and if they can get there whilst keeping something back maybe they can get through that extra game.
Sabathia, though, may not even be the best pitcher on the team. Fausto Carmona is likely to be every bit as good but has, perhaps, a bigger injury red flag after almost doubling his innings total from 2006 to 2007. If he holds up, though, teams that get to face this pair back-to-back are going to find themselves in an instant slump more often than not.
Jake Westbrook makes a decent number three for the rotation right around, maybe just above a league average pitcher but then the questions start.
Paul Byrd is slated to be the Indian's fourth starter with Cliff Lee having the inside track for the fifth and final rotation spot.
At first glance, Byrd seems the better of the two by some margin but Lee was a lot unluckier than Byrd when it came to stranding runners closing the difference significantly. Throw in Byrd's age (37) compared to Lee's (29) and it seems likely that Lee should match or surpass Byrd this year. (ZiPS has lee a third of a run better than Byrd but it looks optimistic on both of them.)
Still, as #4 and #5 starters go they're ok and there's extra depth with Aaron Laffey and Jeremy sowers likely to push from Buffalo for late season callups that could strengthen the back end of the rotation later on.
The bullpen is still "anchored" by Joe Borowski though perhaps more in the sense of weighing them down than providing a strong base. He's better than last year's numbers indicate but not by all that much so the ninth inning of close game should be an adventure.
Getting there looks a lot calmer riding the arms of the two Rafael's: Betancourt from the right and Perez from the left.
Craig Breslow is about league average as the 'pen's second lefty, Jorge Julio and Jensen Lewis are mediocre right-handed middle relief and the 12-man pitching staff is completed with their Japanese import, righty Masahide Kobayashi.
A lot of the projections seem down on Kobayashi, obviously downgrading his NPB experience for the transition to MLB but I think he'll do fine, probably in a ROOGY role.
Overall, the pitching should be able to make a run at matching last year's performance again provided it can stay healthy (especially Carmona).
Rough estimates for offense: 890 runs scored +/-45 and defense: 730 runs allowed +/-37.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 105-57
Medium: 97-65
Low: 89-73
The high looks a little unlikely, perhaps, but the mid-range is right around last year's numbers. the low end would be a good, but not good enough, season.
Again, I'll make the actually predictions for each division following the breakdown of all the teams in it. Next up: Detroit.
The Indians offense should be strong again led by Grady Sizemore, Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner.
Sizemore and Martinez are particularly valuable providing premium offense at premium defensive positions. Martinez can probably expect to regress a little from last year's numbers but Hafner should similar bounce back after his sub-par (for him) 2007 campaign.
Franlin Gutierrez and David Dellucci will likely flank Sizemore in the outfield with Jason Michaels in the 4th outfielder role. Dellucci's bat is ok but Gutierrez' value lies more in his glove. Michaels will probably see most of his time pinch-hitting but could be a platoon partner for Dellucci.
Overall, Gutierrez' shortcomings with the bat probably bring the outfield down to about an average level overall offensively and the team would probably be best served by moving his glove into centerfield and pushing Sizemore to a corner.
The infield of Ryan Garko at first, Asdrubal Cabrera at second, Casey Blake at third and Jhonny Peralta at short (along with Martinez behind the plate) is a definite offensive strength. Garko can hold his own and Peralta is significantly above average at short. Blake is maybe a touch below average and Cabrera still has a way to go, but overall the Indians have a decent collection of hitting talent.
They also have reasonable depth with Shin-Soo Choo likely to start the season on the DL as he completes his recovery from Tommy John surgery but should quickly push for an outfield spot.
The Indians also have last year's Opening Day second baseman Josh Barfield working on his game in Buffalo, Andy Marte trying to take over the third base job from Blake and a very solid backup behind the plate in Kelly Shoppach.
Even if Hafner doesn't bounce back this team should have no trouble scoring runs, but if - as expected - he does, they could even improve on last year.
The rotation looks strong at the top as well, headed by reigning AL Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia entering his contract year. There will doubtless be plenty of off-the-field focus on whether he'll resign (and for just how much) but on the field there's no reason to think he won't post pretty much a repeat of last year's numbers, though possibly a few fewer innings.
C.C. seemed to run out of gas when the postseason rolled around and if they can get there whilst keeping something back maybe they can get through that extra game.
Sabathia, though, may not even be the best pitcher on the team. Fausto Carmona is likely to be every bit as good but has, perhaps, a bigger injury red flag after almost doubling his innings total from 2006 to 2007. If he holds up, though, teams that get to face this pair back-to-back are going to find themselves in an instant slump more often than not.
Jake Westbrook makes a decent number three for the rotation right around, maybe just above a league average pitcher but then the questions start.
Paul Byrd is slated to be the Indian's fourth starter with Cliff Lee having the inside track for the fifth and final rotation spot.
At first glance, Byrd seems the better of the two by some margin but Lee was a lot unluckier than Byrd when it came to stranding runners closing the difference significantly. Throw in Byrd's age (37) compared to Lee's (29) and it seems likely that Lee should match or surpass Byrd this year. (ZiPS has lee a third of a run better than Byrd but it looks optimistic on both of them.)
Still, as #4 and #5 starters go they're ok and there's extra depth with Aaron Laffey and Jeremy sowers likely to push from Buffalo for late season callups that could strengthen the back end of the rotation later on.
The bullpen is still "anchored" by Joe Borowski though perhaps more in the sense of weighing them down than providing a strong base. He's better than last year's numbers indicate but not by all that much so the ninth inning of close game should be an adventure.
Getting there looks a lot calmer riding the arms of the two Rafael's: Betancourt from the right and Perez from the left.
Craig Breslow is about league average as the 'pen's second lefty, Jorge Julio and Jensen Lewis are mediocre right-handed middle relief and the 12-man pitching staff is completed with their Japanese import, righty Masahide Kobayashi.
A lot of the projections seem down on Kobayashi, obviously downgrading his NPB experience for the transition to MLB but I think he'll do fine, probably in a ROOGY role.
Overall, the pitching should be able to make a run at matching last year's performance again provided it can stay healthy (especially Carmona).
Rough estimates for offense: 890 runs scored +/-45 and defense: 730 runs allowed +/-37.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 105-57
Medium: 97-65
Low: 89-73
The high looks a little unlikely, perhaps, but the mid-range is right around last year's numbers. the low end would be a good, but not good enough, season.
Again, I'll make the actually predictions for each division following the breakdown of all the teams in it. Next up: Detroit.
Chicago White Sox
By fluke of alphabet the White Sox are up first, a feat they are unlikely to achieve in the tough AL Central.
Last year's offense gave far too many plate appearances to ineffectual bats like Darin Erstad, Juan Uribe, Jerry Owens, Tadahito Iguchi and Scott Posednik none of whom figure to see a significant starting role with the Sox this year.
Only Uribe and Owens return and the acquisitions by trade of Orlando Cabrera, Nick Swisher and Carlos Quentin push them to the bench.
Quentin is still something of a question mark but can hardly fail to be an upgrade over Posednik, at least.
With Josh Fields being returned to the minors, Joe Crede will step back in at the hot corner. Assuming Crede's unaffected by his surgery they should be a wash offensively with Crede being the significantly better defender so the move makes sense overall, except that the Southsiders are still short on hitting talent and Fields would make a big contribution both as a backup for Crede (or replacement if his return doesn't go as well as hoped) and as part of an outfield rotation, possibly pushing Quentin to the bench.
So, the White Sox offense is improved (a prime candidate for the "taller than Mickey Rooney" award) but still below average.
Jim Thome, Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye should perform right around league average for their respective positions provided another year on their clocks doesn't see their downturns continue. Unfortunately, whilst Dye and Konerko probably won't see their numbers continue to plummet quite like last year it is unlikely that their regression back to the mean will significantly improve them from 2007.
Behind the plate, A.J. Pierzynski is a little below average both offensively and defensively and Toby Hall is underwhelming backing him up.
Alexei Ramirez and Danny Richar will probably continue to compete for the second base job all year (with Uribe pushing them vaguely until he gets traded to somebody stupid in July) with Ramirez probably having the greater value with the bat but not yet comfortable at the keystone.
Ramirez' best position is shortstop but Cabrera keeps him out there (for this year at least) so the Sox have been working him at second and in the outfield but he is a long way from being able to competently field those positions yet.
With Richar fighting a back injury and Pablo Ozuna(!) the only other real competition now that Juan Uribe has been waived it seems likely that Ramirez will be the Opening Day starter at second.
Aside from the adventures in his defensive transition, Ramirez is simply not ready to hit Major League pitching. As a free-swinging fastball hitter he is going to be exploited for the time being until he can learn to work counts and hit breaking pitches. Still, he is one of the few reasons for future hope that the team can look to.
This offense should not find itself scoring a measly 693 runs like last year but it's not likely to scare anybody either.
On the mound, the White Sox received solid years from its top three starters: Mark Buerhle, Jon Garland and Javier Vazquez, all of whom posted over 200 innings with reasonable ERAs. Their combined 35-30 record was more in spite of their offensive support than anything.
Unfortunately, Garland has gone to the Angels in the Cabrera trade and Vazquez and Buerhle were both probably a little lucky last year, each posting a high strand rate and Buerhle seeing a lot of flyballs land just the right side of the fences. Still, they are both a little above average and can be reasonably expected to provide another couple of hundred innings each with ERAs around 4.00.
After that things look a little bleaker. The third and fourth spots in the rotation goes to Jose Contreras and Bobby Danks who both posted ERAs around 5.50 last year.
However, Contreras probably suffered a little from a low strand rate and certainly from letting his release point slip. The mechanical flaw appears fixed and with the strand rate regressing he could certainly bounce back with a respectable 4.50 ERA (league average is ~4.90) while providing 200 innings of his own.
Danks also can hope for better in 2008 as he saw an unusually high proportion of his flyballs sailing over the fences. For a pronounced flyball pitcher that certainly hurt his numbers and he probably fits more in the 5.00 to 5.50 ERA range though given his extreme flyball rate he's not likely to get a lot better than that without change. He's added a cutter to his repertoire this year which should help keep hitters off his fastball a little more but even at my most optimistic I can't see him as much better than 5.20 in 170 innings (which is fine from a 4th starter).
Gavin Floyd will likely fill out the rotation as another serviceable, if unimpressive, back-of-the-rotation starter. Chalk up another 5.20 in 150 innings and the rotation looks to be ok, good even!
Depth is an issue with replacement level and worse guys to fill in where needed so some luck with health and the schedule will be needed, but the rotation should come out as... not a weakness.
The bullpen is strong at the back with Bobby Jenks but getting the ball to him may be tougher, especially if the starters fail to go deep into games.
Matt Thornton and Mike McDougal can probably hold their own, giving the White Sox an ok option from either side but both probably belong in middle relief and not setting up Jenks.
Unfortunately, beyond them and perhaps Scott Linebrink if he can halt his decline there's precious little quality in the 'pen.
If the starters can consistently go deep enough to keep the pressure off the bullpen and allow most of the relief innings to be eaten by those four then the bullpen may be just above average but things are not likely to be so neat and relief pitching is probably a slight weakness overall for the Sox.
Rough estimates for offense: 800 runs scored +/-40 and defense: 855 runs allowed +/-43
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 84-78
Medium: 76-86
Low: 68-94
I'll give my actual prediction along with those for the whole division after compelting the round up of each division's teams but, suffice to say, I don't see the White Sox making the playoffs.
Last year's offense gave far too many plate appearances to ineffectual bats like Darin Erstad, Juan Uribe, Jerry Owens, Tadahito Iguchi and Scott Posednik none of whom figure to see a significant starting role with the Sox this year.
Only Uribe and Owens return and the acquisitions by trade of Orlando Cabrera, Nick Swisher and Carlos Quentin push them to the bench.
Quentin is still something of a question mark but can hardly fail to be an upgrade over Posednik, at least.
With Josh Fields being returned to the minors, Joe Crede will step back in at the hot corner. Assuming Crede's unaffected by his surgery they should be a wash offensively with Crede being the significantly better defender so the move makes sense overall, except that the Southsiders are still short on hitting talent and Fields would make a big contribution both as a backup for Crede (or replacement if his return doesn't go as well as hoped) and as part of an outfield rotation, possibly pushing Quentin to the bench.
So, the White Sox offense is improved (a prime candidate for the "taller than Mickey Rooney" award) but still below average.
Jim Thome, Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye should perform right around league average for their respective positions provided another year on their clocks doesn't see their downturns continue. Unfortunately, whilst Dye and Konerko probably won't see their numbers continue to plummet quite like last year it is unlikely that their regression back to the mean will significantly improve them from 2007.
Behind the plate, A.J. Pierzynski is a little below average both offensively and defensively and Toby Hall is underwhelming backing him up.
Alexei Ramirez and Danny Richar will probably continue to compete for the second base job all year (with Uribe pushing them vaguely until he gets traded to somebody stupid in July) with Ramirez probably having the greater value with the bat but not yet comfortable at the keystone.
Ramirez' best position is shortstop but Cabrera keeps him out there (for this year at least) so the Sox have been working him at second and in the outfield but he is a long way from being able to competently field those positions yet.
With Richar fighting a back injury and Pablo Ozuna(!) the only other real competition now that Juan Uribe has been waived it seems likely that Ramirez will be the Opening Day starter at second.
Aside from the adventures in his defensive transition, Ramirez is simply not ready to hit Major League pitching. As a free-swinging fastball hitter he is going to be exploited for the time being until he can learn to work counts and hit breaking pitches. Still, he is one of the few reasons for future hope that the team can look to.
This offense should not find itself scoring a measly 693 runs like last year but it's not likely to scare anybody either.
On the mound, the White Sox received solid years from its top three starters: Mark Buerhle, Jon Garland and Javier Vazquez, all of whom posted over 200 innings with reasonable ERAs. Their combined 35-30 record was more in spite of their offensive support than anything.
Unfortunately, Garland has gone to the Angels in the Cabrera trade and Vazquez and Buerhle were both probably a little lucky last year, each posting a high strand rate and Buerhle seeing a lot of flyballs land just the right side of the fences. Still, they are both a little above average and can be reasonably expected to provide another couple of hundred innings each with ERAs around 4.00.
After that things look a little bleaker. The third and fourth spots in the rotation goes to Jose Contreras and Bobby Danks who both posted ERAs around 5.50 last year.
However, Contreras probably suffered a little from a low strand rate and certainly from letting his release point slip. The mechanical flaw appears fixed and with the strand rate regressing he could certainly bounce back with a respectable 4.50 ERA (league average is ~4.90) while providing 200 innings of his own.
Danks also can hope for better in 2008 as he saw an unusually high proportion of his flyballs sailing over the fences. For a pronounced flyball pitcher that certainly hurt his numbers and he probably fits more in the 5.00 to 5.50 ERA range though given his extreme flyball rate he's not likely to get a lot better than that without change. He's added a cutter to his repertoire this year which should help keep hitters off his fastball a little more but even at my most optimistic I can't see him as much better than 5.20 in 170 innings (which is fine from a 4th starter).
Gavin Floyd will likely fill out the rotation as another serviceable, if unimpressive, back-of-the-rotation starter. Chalk up another 5.20 in 150 innings and the rotation looks to be ok, good even!
Depth is an issue with replacement level and worse guys to fill in where needed so some luck with health and the schedule will be needed, but the rotation should come out as... not a weakness.
The bullpen is strong at the back with Bobby Jenks but getting the ball to him may be tougher, especially if the starters fail to go deep into games.
Matt Thornton and Mike McDougal can probably hold their own, giving the White Sox an ok option from either side but both probably belong in middle relief and not setting up Jenks.
Unfortunately, beyond them and perhaps Scott Linebrink if he can halt his decline there's precious little quality in the 'pen.
If the starters can consistently go deep enough to keep the pressure off the bullpen and allow most of the relief innings to be eaten by those four then the bullpen may be just above average but things are not likely to be so neat and relief pitching is probably a slight weakness overall for the Sox.
Rough estimates for offense: 800 runs scored +/-40 and defense: 855 runs allowed +/-43
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 84-78
Medium: 76-86
Low: 68-94
I'll give my actual prediction along with those for the whole division after compelting the round up of each division's teams but, suffice to say, I don't see the White Sox making the playoffs.
Welcome
It's been far too long since I wrote anything about baseball regularly and hopefully that's about to change.
I expect the site to concentrate primarily on MLB but possibly I'll go off on tangents about leagues elsewhere (e.g. NPB, KBO) and almost certainly about the minor leagues.
For the time being I've turned comments off but I welcome feedback to escapeisathand@gmail.com.
Given that I've finally decided to do this a little late I'll start with pre-season (just about) breakdowns of each team but I'll keep them relatively brief for now to try to cover all 30 teams and get in some vague and dubious predictions for the year before too much of the season has already been played.
So, a big welcome back to those who've read my stuff before and just a big welcome to anybody new and without further ado I'll get on with the first team...
I expect the site to concentrate primarily on MLB but possibly I'll go off on tangents about leagues elsewhere (e.g. NPB, KBO) and almost certainly about the minor leagues.
For the time being I've turned comments off but I welcome feedback to escapeisathand@gmail.com.
Given that I've finally decided to do this a little late I'll start with pre-season (just about) breakdowns of each team but I'll keep them relatively brief for now to try to cover all 30 teams and get in some vague and dubious predictions for the year before too much of the season has already been played.
So, a big welcome back to those who've read my stuff before and just a big welcome to anybody new and without further ado I'll get on with the first team...
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