To round off the AL Central, it's the Minnesota Twins. More or less a .500 team last year, so which way do they go?
On offense they say goodbye to "face of the franchise" Torii Hunter. 22-year old prospect, Carlos Gomez will take over duties in centerfield and should maintain the defensive level but he's not even close to ready to face Major League pitching.
Gomez beat out the slightly-more-ready Denard Span for the job, presumably on the strength of the Twins feeling it would be embarrassing to have traded away the best pitcher in baseball without getting at least one ML-ready player in return.
Span will start the year at Triple-A Rochester but it will be no surprise to see him up to take over from Gomez before the end of May.
Another 22-year old will start beside him in leftfield as Delmon Young has come over from Tampa Bay in return for the twins second best pitcher Matt Garza. Young, at least, is entering his 3rd Major League season and belongs though he's still got a way to go to fulfil his potential.
Michael Cuddyer in right completes the outfield unspectacularly but competently with Craig Monroe providing backup.
The infield looks better with Joe Mauer still behind the plate and Justin Morneau at first. Unfortunately, the offense just drops off after that with guys like Cuddyer and DH Jason Kubel the next best they have to offer.
Brendan Harris at second - who also came over in the Garza deal - is ok, but Adam Everett has for (two) obvious reasons a strong reputation as a glove first player and journeyman Mike Lamb at third isn't good enough with the bat to make up his defensive shortcomings (though having Everett next to him - just like the last four years in Houston - helps hide some of it). Still, anything that gets Nick Punto out of the lineup has to be a plus.
Besides Monroe, the bench consists of Mike Redmond, a very capable backup catcher, rookie infielder Matt Tolbert and somehow Punto has survived on the roster.
The pitching, obviously looks rather different with the departures of Santana and Garza who are not easily replaced. (Not to mention Carlos Silva who was their third best pitcher.)
87 year old Livan Hernandez will be the Opening Day starter has failed only once - and by a single out in 1999 - to record 200+ innings since his first full season with the Marlins in 1998 so he's got that going for him, which is nice. Unfortunately, those 200 innings are unlikely to be anything like "ace"-worthy. If he can keep his ERA under 5.00 it will be something of a surprise but one the Twins will need to keep things from getting really ugly.
The beautifully named Boof Bonser appears to be the nominal #2 but should put up numbers much the same as Hernandez over a few less innings.
The third starter Nick Blackburn may be a touch better than that but not much if at all.
So, the best starters on the team are supposedly their four and five guys: Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey who could both be somewhere around, or just above, league average.
On the plus side, Francisco Liriano, who missed all of last year following Tommy John surgery will be up with the club after a couple of minor league starts to finish getting his arm ready. He'll probably bump Blackburn back to Rochester and Bonser and co. down a spot.
Presumably, the Twins will take things easy with Liriano unless they find themselves in the hunt late in the year, but if they can get 140 quality innings from him they should be pleased heading to 2009. (And less embarrassed in 2008.)
The bullpen is a lot better than the rotation with closer Joe Nathan joined by Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Dennys Reyes and Brian Bass.
Bass aside, everyone of them is above average with the only real weakness the lack of any lefthanders after Reyes.
Rough estimates for offense: 690 runs scored +/-35 and defense: 760 runs allowed +/-38.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 81-81
Medium: 73-89
Low: 65-97
Ultimately, the trades of Santana and Garza pretty much signalled this as a rebuilding year so success will be measuerd more in progress from guys like Liriano and especially the guys who came in those trade packages like Gomez than it will be measured in wins.
Next up: A quick round up of the AL Central - Standings predictions and the like, then we'll move onto the AL East, starting with Baltimore.
