It's been nearly 20 years and 8 managers since the Royals won even 85 games, so is there any reason to think that Kansas are giong to return to the glory days of Brett and Bret?
Well, no, not really, but there is hope on the horizon at least which is more than Royals' fans have been able to reasonably say for some time.
After his first year at the helm, Dayton Moore has turned over a lot of players and seemingly has some sort of organised plan for the team.
So, why the optimism? Rather than plugging in washed out veteran after washed out veteran to try (and fail) to avoid 100 losses as has seemed to be the plan before, Moore has finally looked to grow his young talent base (and after so many early draft picks, you'd expect a decent farm, right?)
Alex Gordon at third is the first big reason. He was a completely different hitter in the second half of the season and if that's any sign of his growth then there's reason for optimism.
Billy Butler should see a full season at DH as the Royals seem to have finally grasped that he just isn't cut out for playing defense but there's no doubt that he can hit.
John Buck should finally get a chance to be the every day catcher with Miguel Olivo providing the backup role. Olivo hits extremely well against lefties, although not an ideal platoon snice Buck hits better against them too, unsurprisingly, but handled right they could be a bit better than average between them. Olivo starts the season suspended so career minor-leaguer Matt Tupman will be up for a few days to back up Buck and may get one start, but he will almost certainly be sent back down once Olivo returns.
David DeJesus probably doesn't count as a youngster, as such, anymore but he brings a solid bat and defense to centerfield whilst Mark Teahen move position for the second year in a row going from right to left field.
Tony Pena, Jr. still can't hit but makes up for most of those shortcomings with his glove at shortstop.
Free agent signing Jose Guillen in right and Mark Grudzielanek at second provide the veteran guidance, at least, until Alberto Callaspo claims Grudz' job.
Journeyman Ross Gload fills out the lineup at first without any great distinction with bat or glove and overall the Royals should be only slightly below average but with plenty of possibility for breakout seasons.
Pitching is even more intriguing as the Royals enter year 2 of the Gil Meche era.
Meche was a little fortunate last year and his hot start made it look even better but, in reality, there's no reason to think Meche can't at least come close to duplicating 2007.
More intriguing is pitcher-cum-sabermetrician Brian Bannister who doesn't strike out enough batters, especially for a flyball pitcher but had an unusually low home run per flyball ratio and an unfeasibly low BABIP.
Research shows that, in general, neither of these are sustainable but, as Bannister has discussed himself, he is also aware of the research and is doing more of his own looking for ways that things can be "beaten".
It's extremely unlikely that he'll escape some regression to the mean, but his minor league track record suggests he could improve his K-rate to help offset some of that. If his research bears fruit that he's able to put into practice then maybe, just maybe he can keep up what he's been doing.
Still, KC fans will probably be paying more attention still to Zack Greinke who opens the season as nominally the third starter but could easily be the staff ace by the time the All-Star Game rolls around. Greinke has great stuff and great control and it's easy to forget he's only 24. If everything comes together for Greinke the Royals' optimism for the coming years would be well justified.
Brett Tomko is a serviceable veteran fourth starter and the final rotation spot goes to John Bale who hasn't started since 2004 for the Carp in Japan. He converted to relief for his last two seasons there and did the same for the Royals last year but he's shown (albeit in NPB) that he's capable of holding his own as a starter and is probably better than most 5th starters in the league.
Joakim Soria proved to be an excellent Rule 5 pickup last year and should have an opportunity to prove he's one of the best closer's in baseball right now.
Getting the ball from the starters to Soria will be Jimmy Gobble and Ron Mahay from the left side and Leo Nunez, Ramon Ramirez and Yasuhiko Yabuta from the right. Yabuta is in his first Major League season but has plenty experience from his time in NPB as a setup man with the Marines with ERAs ranging from 2.62 to 3.07 over the past four years.
If Yabuta transitions well to the US he and Gobble will probably provide the primary setup role with the others filling in in middle relief.
Once Olivo's suspension is lifted and presumably Tupman is returned to the minors the Royals may elect to go with a 12th pitcher in which case long-man Joel Peralta could join this group, otherwise Ryan Shealy would seem to be the top position playing candidate to push Gload at first.
A lot depends on the growth of the younger players and whether Greinke can finally breakout as a top flight starter but, for the first time in many years, there can be optimism for the Royals.
Rough estimates for offense: 760 runs scored +/-38 and defense: 800 runs allowed +/-40.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 85-77
Medium: 77-85
Low: 69-93
Ok, so 85 wins is still the high end, but maybe the Royals can give themselves something to build on for next year.
Next up: Minnesota
