A very busy off-season seems to have thrust Detroit into the role of favourites in their division and, in many eyes, the league.
The Tigers paid steep prices but they added to an already potent offense (2nd in the AL for runs scored in 2007) by bringing over Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins to man third and Edgar Renteria from Atlanta to play short.
Renteria's arrival bumps Carlos Guillen over to first base where his bat should provide a significant upgrade over the departing Sean Casey.
Placido Polanco remains at second after his well-deserved All-Star performance last year and Ivan Rodriguez will provide a veteran presence (if little else at this stage) behind the plate.
The moves make Brandon Inge the odd man out with Cabrera taking his job. Inge has been working out in the outfield and at catcher again and should see time off as a backup all over the place. Barring an injury pressing him into everyday use, however, he is very likely to be traded before the deadline, assuming the Tigers pick up some of his salary.
Still, to open the season those injuries put him in the lineup. Vance Wilson will open the season on the DL, making Inge the first choice of backup catcher, and with Curtis Granderson missing the first week or two with a broken finger, courtesy of a Travis Blackley fastball, Inge has become the Opening Day starter at centerfield.
Injuries aside, Granderson should be the mainstay at center with Magglio Ordoñez in right looking to duplicate last year's near-MVP season. Unfortunately, whilst Ordoñez will almost certainly have a fine season, he's far from likely to come close to repeating last year. Granderson also looks likely to decline a little though (health-permitting) he should still be one of the top centerfield hitters in the game.
Jacque Jones is another new arrival via trade and is expected to start in leftfield, but he should only provide a small upgrade on the at-bats wasted on Craig Monroe last year, at least until they start platooning him with Marcus Thames.
Gary Sheffield provides another big bat at DH though not as big as in year's past. Sheff turns 40 shortly after this season ends and all those years are starting to take a toll. His bat is still good, but about average for a designated hitter. He's no longer a big plus point to the offense but he doesn't hurt them either.
Ryan Raburn and Ramon Santiago round out the bench providing defensive cover in the outfield and infield respectively, though Raburn could well find himself starting in leftfield before the year ends.
Defensively the infield is split in two: the right side of Guillen and Polanco should be excellent but the left side is a big hole. Cabrera is a butcher at third and Renteria is living on reputation these days having very little range though what he can reach he still deals with effectively.
The outfield is probably about average defensively though its range will suffer until Granderson's return.
The Tigers' pitching staff also welcomes a new member with Dontrelle Willis coming over from the Marlins in the Cabrera trade.
Willis should slot in as the #5 starter behind Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson to start the season.
All four of those guys should be better than the league average starter with Verlander well above. What they aren't likely to do is post 200+ innings apiece.
Rogers spent little time on the mound last year with separate injuries to his pitching shoulder and elbow and at 43 has to be considered a question mark to make it through the season unscathed.
Oddly, as the 5th starter Willis is probably the most likely to log a high innings total but only if his performance can keep him on the mound. His performance has been in decline as hitters have grown accustomed to his awkward delivery and moving from the NL to the AL is usually accompanied by a hefty rise in ERA. Unless the league change also gives him back some of that advantage he's lost he could well see his performance hovering around replacement level.
The bullpen starts as a big question with Joel Zumaya unlikely to join the club until at least the All-Star break and Fernando Rodney likely to miss most of the first month.
In their absence, another 40-something, Todd Jones, will hold down the closer role. Beyond Jones and the equally unexciting Bobby Seay and Jason Grilli there's little depth in the Tigers' 'pen.
Detroit look to go with a 12-man staff filling out the roster with Zach Miner, Denny Bautista, Yorman Bazardo and Aquilino Lopez, none of whom are going to inspire much confidence in skipper Jim Leyland.
Somehow, despite having a bunch of good starters, pitching looks to be the weakness that could come back to bite the Tigers. Unless Willis comes good, Rogers stays healthy and the others consistently get deep into games, too many poor relievers are going to post too many innings.
Given that most of the Tigers' minor league depth was used to acquire Cabrera, Willis, Renteria and Jacque Jones there's probably not much help coming from below either. Once Rodney, and - hopefully - later Zumaya return things will look a lot better, however.
Rough estimates for offense: 860 runs scored +/-43 and defense: 830 runs allowed +/-42.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 92-70
Medium: 84-78
Low: 76-86
A wildcard in this could be Brandon Inge but his contract makes it unlikely they can get the value they want for him. Still, if they can plug in a couple of decent bullpen arms to support their offense the high projection seems reasonable.
Still, this is a lot worse than the general wisdom seems to be but the lack of depth and overall weak defense will expose this team, I think.
Up next: The Royals
