Up next are the defending AL Central champions, the Cleveland Indians who return mostly the same team who fell a single game short of taking the pennant last year.
The Indians offense should be strong again led by Grady Sizemore, Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner.
Sizemore and Martinez are particularly valuable providing premium offense at premium defensive positions. Martinez can probably expect to regress a little from last year's numbers but Hafner should similar bounce back after his sub-par (for him) 2007 campaign.
Franlin Gutierrez and David Dellucci will likely flank Sizemore in the outfield with Jason Michaels in the 4th outfielder role. Dellucci's bat is ok but Gutierrez' value lies more in his glove. Michaels will probably see most of his time pinch-hitting but could be a platoon partner for Dellucci.
Overall, Gutierrez' shortcomings with the bat probably bring the outfield down to about an average level overall offensively and the team would probably be best served by moving his glove into centerfield and pushing Sizemore to a corner.
The infield of Ryan Garko at first, Asdrubal Cabrera at second, Casey Blake at third and Jhonny Peralta at short (along with Martinez behind the plate) is a definite offensive strength. Garko can hold his own and Peralta is significantly above average at short. Blake is maybe a touch below average and Cabrera still has a way to go, but overall the Indians have a decent collection of hitting talent.
They also have reasonable depth with Shin-Soo Choo likely to start the season on the DL as he completes his recovery from Tommy John surgery but should quickly push for an outfield spot.
The Indians also have last year's Opening Day second baseman Josh Barfield working on his game in Buffalo, Andy Marte trying to take over the third base job from Blake and a very solid backup behind the plate in Kelly Shoppach.
Even if Hafner doesn't bounce back this team should have no trouble scoring runs, but if - as expected - he does, they could even improve on last year.
The rotation looks strong at the top as well, headed by reigning AL Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia entering his contract year. There will doubtless be plenty of off-the-field focus on whether he'll resign (and for just how much) but on the field there's no reason to think he won't post pretty much a repeat of last year's numbers, though possibly a few fewer innings.
C.C. seemed to run out of gas when the postseason rolled around and if they can get there whilst keeping something back maybe they can get through that extra game.
Sabathia, though, may not even be the best pitcher on the team. Fausto Carmona is likely to be every bit as good but has, perhaps, a bigger injury red flag after almost doubling his innings total from 2006 to 2007. If he holds up, though, teams that get to face this pair back-to-back are going to find themselves in an instant slump more often than not.
Jake Westbrook makes a decent number three for the rotation right around, maybe just above a league average pitcher but then the questions start.
Paul Byrd is slated to be the Indian's fourth starter with Cliff Lee having the inside track for the fifth and final rotation spot.
At first glance, Byrd seems the better of the two by some margin but Lee was a lot unluckier than Byrd when it came to stranding runners closing the difference significantly. Throw in Byrd's age (37) compared to Lee's (29) and it seems likely that Lee should match or surpass Byrd this year. (ZiPS has lee a third of a run better than Byrd but it looks optimistic on both of them.)
Still, as #4 and #5 starters go they're ok and there's extra depth with Aaron Laffey and Jeremy sowers likely to push from Buffalo for late season callups that could strengthen the back end of the rotation later on.
The bullpen is still "anchored" by Joe Borowski though perhaps more in the sense of weighing them down than providing a strong base. He's better than last year's numbers indicate but not by all that much so the ninth inning of close game should be an adventure.
Getting there looks a lot calmer riding the arms of the two Rafael's: Betancourt from the right and Perez from the left.
Craig Breslow is about league average as the 'pen's second lefty, Jorge Julio and Jensen Lewis are mediocre right-handed middle relief and the 12-man pitching staff is completed with their Japanese import, righty Masahide Kobayashi.
A lot of the projections seem down on Kobayashi, obviously downgrading his NPB experience for the transition to MLB but I think he'll do fine, probably in a ROOGY role.
Overall, the pitching should be able to make a run at matching last year's performance again provided it can stay healthy (especially Carmona).
Rough estimates for offense: 890 runs scored +/-45 and defense: 730 runs allowed +/-37.
Pythag W-L based on those estimates would be:
High: 105-57
Medium: 97-65
Low: 89-73
The high looks a little unlikely, perhaps, but the mid-range is right around last year's numbers. the low end would be a good, but not good enough, season.
Again, I'll make the actually predictions for each division following the breakdown of all the teams in it. Next up: Detroit.
